Independence Day celebrations last week were overshadowed by the biggest defeat in the Myanmar military’s modern history.
The fight is far from over, but after the events of 2023 the Myanmar military will never regain its former strength.
Experts said a popular revolt could never succeed; while there is much work to be done, 2023 will be remembered as the year the people began to prove them wrong.
Beijing’s commitment to the junta and its influence on ethnic armies are both being tested by the chaos enveloping its southern neighbor.
With support from the broader public and PDF resistance groups, the ethnic armies have made quick territorial gains while taking care to acknowledge China’s concerns.
The regime’s tireless diplomatic efforts are bearing fruit, as China drops its pretense of caution and ties continue to expand with Russia, Belarus and North Korea.
By allowing Thailand’s Don to meet her, the junta has divided ASEAN and sown confusion among anti-regime forces, but public opposition to the junta remains resolute.
Beijing has signaled that it wants to see greater engagement with ‘all parties’; ultimately it will side with whoever wins Myanmar’s conflict.
Strategic interests have led Beijing to make its support for the Myanmar junta more explicit in recent months, but it may come to regret doing so.
The Irrawaddy English editor Kyaw Zwa Moe describes his escape from Myanmar, and his determination not to be silenced by the country’s military junta.
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