The year 2023 was not a happy one for Myanmar. The regime continued its illegitimate rule without majority support and remained deeply unpopular. The country’s economy, already in crisis, deteriorated further. The incompetent regime’s intervention in the foreign currency market was unsuccessful. Civil war and unrest continued to spread.
Going forward we can expect more violence, with the civilian population suffering most.
According to the UN, over 2.6 million people have been displaced across Myanmar since the coup in 2021—more than 660,000 of them since October, when the Brotherhood Alliance of three ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and allied resistance groups launched the anti-regime offensive known as Operation 1027.
Having called for international intervention since the coup, Myanmar’s revolutionary forces realized this year that they are on their own. Preoccupied with Ukraine, Taiwan and the Middle East, the world has turned a blind eye to Myanmar, perhaps perceiving its location between regional powers China and India as “off limits”. The irony is, opposition forces might now look at this global indifference from a new perspective and see it as a good thing. “OK,” they might say, “So we’ll have our own organic revolution” and end the year with cheers of “Happy Revolutionary Year!”
So what’s next?
Indeed, it is difficult to gauge where the country is headed in 2024, other than to expect that the country will slide further into darkness, economic hardship and worsening armed conflict. For the time being, what we can see is that the revolution against the murderous and corrupt military regime is picking up momentum. Where are those who predicted that the uprising would be crushed and die out? It seems the military has failed to meet their expectations.
The bright side of this revolution is that the ethnic armies will have more influence in the future as they gain more territory in their own states, further pushing back the occupier, the Myanmar military.
The opposition forces will no doubt continue to fight, as the country witnesses a new and emerging leadership exercising self-restraint and autonomous administration in recently occupied territory in Karenni (Kayah), Chin, Rakhine and northern Shan states and Sagaing and Magwe regions.
Elsewhere, where the regime remains in power, it continues to pose a danger to the civilian population and behave like a foreign occupying force.
The military has ruled the country since the 1960s, and successive generations have seen the disorder in Myanmar increase with each passing decade. Far from uniting the country, the military has only brought fragmentation and anarchy—the opposite of what is claimed by the leaders of the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military).
A perfect example is the 2021 coup, which brought the country to its knees and even created a nightmare for neighboring countries.
Now perhaps it is too late to steer the country back to normalcy. The regime leaders are utterly incompetent when it comes to managing the country’s affairs. They have faced crisis after crisis since they seized power. It has been a story of a failed coup leading the country to become a failed state.
Then we saw war erupt in the north. This has raised anxiety and fear, but also hope.
Operation 1027 is an unprecedented challenge to the regime, and is now a household name in Myanmar. Opposition forces and the majority of Myanmar’s people are cheered whenever they hear reports of regime casualties. Isn’t it strange? The military, which is supposed to protect them, continues to bomb its own territory and people. The Myanmar people have nothing but disgust for them. The military has turned the Myanmar people into its worst enemy.
The success of the offensive has brought hope, but perhaps also some wishful thinking among the Myanmar population and foreign analysts.
Newspaper headlines and columns repeatedly invite us to wonder: Is the regime in Myanmar about to collapse?
The answer, sadly, is NO. Not immediately.
The Myanmar military or Tatmadaw is not yet at the point of toppling. The question is: How long will it remain in power?
The good news is the Tatmadaw is in a state of decline; it is weak and shrinking. The military will never regain its past glory and strength.
Myanmar will remain volatile and unstable in 2024. If the opposition forces are united and can strike further, the military will implode. We can expect more offensives, urban guerrilla warfare and drone attacks in cities, and more defections from the military. Soldiers will be forced to remain in their military quarters, lacking the will to fight, low on morale and disillusioned. They know the people hate them.
In Myanmar, parents have asked their sons and daughters to fight the regime and back them to do so. Relatives of military officers ask them to leave the military or join the opposition.
Chin, Karenni, Karen and Rakhine and Shan states are contested ground and ethnic forces will gain more political and administrative power there. In four regions—Sagaing, Magwe, Mandalay and Bago—we can expect growing armed resistance and attacks. Military pressure against the regime will build.
The notion that the military is the only institution that can keep the country together is no longer believed. Some have argued that if the Tatmadaw collapses, Myanmar will face chaos and anarchy. This is not true. New and old political forces in Myanmar should be able to self-administer the regions and states they now control. It is indeed their own land.
The world, or at least Southeast Asia, will be a better and safer place if the military junta is overthrown.
The opposition forces have gained momentum and are determined to win more battles in spite of the challenges they face, including limited resources. They know they have a strong will and overwhelming support. Now, opposition forces will have to demonstrate that they can sustain the fight and continue to ensure that the military is forced to face the music.
It is also about time that ethnic leaders—both senior leaders and the younger generation—make more of an effort to communicate with their neighbors and foreign governments in the region and convince them that Myanmar will not descend into chaos and anarchy once the regime collapses—and that they are in control.
As for China, India and Thailand, it’s about time for them to shift gear and acknowledge the reality on the ground. They have to prepare themselves to adjust and work with multiple players in Myanmar, as the regime’s tight control is slipping. There are new emerging actors and players in ethnic frontier areas, as well as in the heartland in Myanmar.
China and Thailand have the longest borders with Myanmar and they will be key players on multiple levels. But they must look beyond the border, understand the changing landscape and newly emerging actors. Thailand should show sufficient flexibility and creativity to support the people and organizations on the ground.
To engage on the ground, they will need to gain trust and confidence from the Myanmar population—the regime is less significant.
Beijing remains a source of concern. In the absence of an active Myanmar policy and consistent engagement from the West, China has grabbed the opportunity and attempted to broker a peace deal in the recent conflict, though the effort has yet to yield results. However, no one trusts China.
China, like Russia, remained a key arms supplier to the regime throughout the year. They would continue to veto resolutions against the junta at the United Nations.
Beijing has long pursued a strategy of hedging its bets in Myanmar, maintaining political, economic and military ties to the still dangerous regime while also cultivating and wielding influence among ethnic insurgents along its border. China plays both sides but it must be careful, as this could have consequences for its investment projects in Myanmar, particularly in the ethnic states. If China puts too much pressure on ethnic armies, its projects in these territories could be at risk.
Myanmar is going through an internal decolonization and decentralization process, and it will be good to see the country federalized and the ethnic states reclaim their land and self-determination.
Stay tuned for more of this in 2024…
