Analysis

Driven by Chinese pressure, scam operations have relocated from northern border towns to eastern and southern Shan State and further inland, transforming local economies.

Growing engagement with the Arakan Army reflects realities on the ground, where Myanmar’s regime has lost control of its western frontier, prompting neighbors to rethink old alignments.

Combined KNU and PDF forces have made significant gains in coordinated offensives against regime troops since the start of the year.

The junta will likely hand power to an interim government, and rely on quorum rules to convene a parliament with just a few dozen elected MPs.

The MNDAA’s China-aligned economic agenda signals a push for autonomy, legitimacy, and a future rooted in formal trade, tech and strategic minerals.

Xi’s decision to meet Min Aung Hlaing at the Kremlin sends a signal that China and Russia are willing to work together to shield the junta from international pressure.

It has become much easier for the military to request air support for ground operations, and now airstrikes on civilians are carried out across the country on a regular basis.

China’s strategy in dealing with the ethnic armed organizations operating near its borders is based on the principle of divide and rule, says Wut Yee Khaing Mar.

Beijing’s Shan State intervention, coupled with silence over regime attacks on civilians during earthquake ceasefire, have only deepened anti-China sentiment across Myanmar.    

Ensuring that the junta regained the northern Shan capital without firing a shot, China’s interference in Myanmar has never been so public or so brazen.