Myanmar’s Inglourious Basterds have done it again.
The junta’s recent announcement that it is enforcing the country’s long-dormant national conscription law will drive many young people and families out of the country.
It will be the second wave of flight from Myanmar since the coup in 2021.
In that year, after the military seized power in February, many politicians, activists, civil servants, military personnel and civilians fled, some to escape persecution, others to take up arms against the regime. Many have traveled to neighboring countries—mostly Thailand—while some live on the border in ethnic states, from where they wage an armed resistance.
This time, it seems certain that many young people are intent on leaving the country to pursue better lives abroad—and they don’t intend to return soon.
The junta announced that the mandatory military service law would be enforced for men aged 18 to 35 and women aged 18 to 27, requiring them to serve for up to two years. However, in periods where a state of emergency has been declared—such as currently exists—they will have to serve up to five years. And they’re not wasting any time: Conscription is set to begin next month, when an initial 5,000 people will be called up. The junta is also specifically targeting “technicians” including physicians, engineers and IT specialists, who may be required to serve longer than two years. To escape this bleak fate, many skilled young Myanmar people are leaving the country.
Businessmen, factory owners and hoteliers suddenly find that their young employees are either in a state of bewilderment, pondering their next move—or already packing their bags.
Unsurprisingly, since the coup Thailand has been a favorite destination for Myanmar citizens—something the Thai prime minister noted recently amid a sharp spike in the number of Myanmar people applying for visas to enter Thailand.
“They are welcome if they enter the country legally. But if they sneak into the country illegally, legal action will be taken against them. I already discussed the matter with security agencies,” Srettha Thavisin said. But whether they have documents or not, Myanmar people are already heading for Thailand. One can imagine the human traffickers and their associates on the border are busier than ever.
In ethnic states, particularly in Shan State bordering Thailand, ethnic armed groups have accelerated the recruitment of young soldiers fearing that the conflict will expand, creating yet another factor driving many families in Shan State to the border or into Thailand. As a result, Chiang Mai in Thailand has become the “second capital of Shan State” after Taunggyi.
The junta’s conscription law came into effect just as Thailand was preparing to set up a humanitarian corridor along the border with its war-torn neighbor. Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara visited the border town of Mae Sot and subsequently flew to Washington for talks with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who gave his blessings to the plan. It should be noted that the new Thai government is trying to forge a Myanmar policy that is different from the one adopted by the previous government led by prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who was seen as close to the regime.
One interesting upshot of all this chaos is that Thailand has become home to many wealthy and middle-class Myanmar families, to the extent that their presence is being felt in the local real estate market. Since the coup, Myanmar citizens have been buying up condos and other properties in Thailand, opening businesses, restaurants and service centers in Bangkok, and expanding to Chiang Mai and Phuket.
Last week, a news headline in the Bangkok Post read: “Myanmar buyers look beyond Bangkok.”
Karlo Pobre, deputy managing director of property consultant Colliers Thailand, said, “Buyers in Myanmar have been more active every year since the ongoing political unrest,” adding that interest in Thai property among buyers from Myanmar was expanding from investment purposes to recreational purposes.
Property is not the only draw for well-heeled Myanmar people in Thailand. For the last 20 years at least, Bangkok has been a popular destination for Myanmar citizens seeking medical treatment. For instance, Bumrungrad Hospital in Bangkok has a Myanmar floor staffed with translators. In Chiang Mai, all private hospitals are equipped with Myanmar and Shan translators, and they are kept busy.
Pobre said the first wave of buyers from Myanmar purchased Thai properties only in Bangkok, mainly as a safe haven for their own use, their children’s education and as bases for healthcare.
Unit prices ranged from 20-70 million baht (US$555,000-$1.94 million) in inner-city locations like Thong Lor, Asoke, Phrom Phong, Nana and Ploenchit based on their proximity to hospitals and malls. Unsurprisingly, Myanmar’s murderer-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing’s son and daughter are among those who have bought a luxury condo in a prime area in Bangkok.
In addition, middle class Myanmar citizens have purchased condos and apartments in Bangkok and Chiang Mai and rented them out. Many elderly parents and wealthy retired pensioners have left and come to stay in Thailand due to the availability of medical services and leisure activities—and of course to find some peace. Perhaps when it comes to elite migrants, Thailand has no problem welcoming them.
Indeed, in Bangkok, Hua Hin, Phuket and Chiang Mai, private schools are seeing an increase in the number of young Myanmar students registering.
State-owned universities’ scholarship programs in Thailand are filled with young Myanmar students, to the point where recently they had to stop accepting online application forms as they were swamped.
Not everyone who enters Thailand from Myanmar puts down roots: It has always been a transit point for Myanmar citizens to migrate or move to Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Western countries. This trend will continue as they seek greener pastures.
It is hard to know exactly how many migrant workers live and work in Thailand. There are 2.1 million migrant workers registered with the Thai Ministry of Labor but it is speculated that the true number could be as high as 3 million to 5 million.
In keeping with the country’s reputation as “the land of smiles”, some Thai politicians, civil society groups and members of parliament have called on the government to provide jobs and education to young people fleeing conscription in Myanmar.
Thai military and security officials will look at this evolving situation with alarm and perceive it as a national security threat. However, the Thai business sector will see it differently. There are economic and business opportunities in this crisis, as Myanmar’s rich and middle class have purchasing and spending power (including Shan migrants living in northern Thailand) and Myanmar’s migrant workers will no doubt fill the labor shortage in Thailand.
What about poor Myanmar citizens, migrant workers, and refugees? On the border, Thailand should work with local Myanmar and ethnic actors to create a conducive environment in which Myanmar citizens can find the jobs, economic activities, employment, vocational training and education, and public health provisions they need to thrive. There should be no refugee camps.
Ultimately the regime’s conscription law will be Myanmar’s great loss. The Inglourious Basterds—or, let’s call them by their name, the psychopathic junta leaders—in Naypyitaw must realize that Myanmar has already endured decades of brain drain, work force depletion and lost opportunities. So long as the regime is in power, this will never stop.
For now, Myanmar parents’ message for their sons and daughters is a simple—if sad—one: “Don’t come back!”