Another ceasefire signatory gets wise
In his speech to mark the 77th anniversary of Union Day on Monday, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing insisted he would not allow any harm to befall the Union, which he said was based on strong foundations of the military’s “Three Main Causes” and the Constitution.
The Three Main Causes refers to a three-part political ideology – non-disintegration of the Union; non-disintegration of national solidarity; and perpetuation of sovereignty – which the military believes it has primary responsibility for upholding.
The Three Main Causes are widely dismissed in Myanmar as rhetoric designed by military leaders to indoctrinate rank-and-file soldiers and create an impression among the public that the country would break up without them.
Myanmar people are aware, too, that the current Constitution, ratified in 2008, was also created by the Myanmar military to perpetuate its hold on power.
The Three Causes and the Constitution rule out any chance that junta boss Min Aung Hlaing will fulfill the demand of ethnic groups for a federal Union that guarantees equality and self-determination.
The latest to realize this is a group of senior figures from the ethnic New Mon State Party (NMSP), which is engaged in peace talks with the junta as a signatory to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). After years of junta lip service about Mon equality and self-determination, the senior NMSP figures have formed a breakaway group to fight the military regime.
Their move comes just weeks after another NCA signatory, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, took up arms against the regime following a lack of tangible results from peace talks. Both groups have now vowed to join the fight against military dictatorship with other anti-regime forces until federal democracy is achieved.
Desperate times, desperate measure
First, Min Aung Hlaing activated the national conscription law promulgated by former dictator Than Shwe. Then he rushed to form committees at national and region/state levels and in the administrative capital of Naypyitaw to oversee implementation of conscription while sponsoring rallies in support of the law. All of these indicate one thing – Myanmar’s military is seriously depleted.
After the law’s enforcement triggered uproar, junta spokesman Major General Zaw Min Tun came out to explain that of the 14 million people eligible for mandatory military service according to the 2019 census, the military could train no more than 60,000 per year. So, only one or two people would be drafted from each of the country’s 60,000-plus wards and villages.
However, few if any will believe his claim, knowing that the regime is desperate for troops to prop up a military decimated by battlefield losses and mass surrenders.
The regime further underlined that desperation when it activated a law that allows the military to send retired or resigned veterans back to the front line. It has also extended the deadline for women to submit applications to military academies.
Conscription roadshow
Min Aung Hlaing had a hectic schedule this week as he sought to explain why it was necessary to enforce the national conscription law.
The junta chief attended a dinner to mark Union Day, met with political parties and Myanmar diplomats, and attended the 78th birthday of state broadcaster MRTV, the military’s main propaganda mouthpiece since the coup. At each stop, he attempted to justify the enforcement of mandatory military service.
In his meeting with political parties, he said the law was necessary to restore peace and stability in the country – a precondition for a multi-party election.
The junta boss also summoned Myanmar ambassadors and chargés d’affaires to Naypyitaw to explain the law to them.
Insisting that the ultimate goal of the regime was to hold a general election, he asked them to thoroughly study the conscription law and explain to the governments of their host countries why it was necessary for Myanmar.
In fact, the conscription law is Min Aung Hlaing’s attempt to kill two birds with one stone. The junta boss is hoping it will revive his depleted military while also deceiving the international community into thinking that his regime is seriously working to organize a “free and fair” national poll.
