Deputy junta chief Soe Win has not been seen in public for more than two weeks amid widespread rumors that he was severely injured in a resistance drone attack on April 9.
The Myanmar military’s No. 2 was at its Southeastern Command in Mawlamyine, Mon State overseeing military operations in neighboring Karen State’s Myawaddy Township when resistance forces attacked the base with drones.
Soe Win’s absence from Myanmar’s traditional New Year celebrations in the administrative capital of Naypyitaw further intensified speculation about his condition. The vice senior general never failed before to attend the annual celebrations at the pavilions set up by the families of those connected to the Commander-in-Chief Office and Naypyitaw’s mayor.
Meanwhile, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing also abstained from celebrating the Thingyan Festival at the military pavilion in Mandalay’s Pyin Oo Lwin, the seat of military academies, after resistance forces attacked the town with rockets. His excuse was that his legs hurt.
He sent his wife, Kyu Kyu Hla, to the Thingyan party in Pyin Oo Lwin on his behalf. Noticeably, Soe Win’s wife, Than Than, was absent from the celebration in Naypyitaw, fueling speculation that she was busy nursing her husband.
Soe Win has not been seen in public since he visited the garrison town of Ba Htoo in southern Shan State on April 3.
Resistance forces claim that Soe Win was at the Southeastern Command headquarters in Mawlamyine when they carried out drone attacks on April 8 and 9. Soe Win’s visit, however, was not announced in state-run media.
Alpha Bats Drone Force, a unit of the Shar Htoo Waw Technical Force resistance group, claimed responsibility for the drone attacks in Mawlamyine.
A tactical commander, a deputy artillery director, and a colonel from the Southeastern Command were killed immediately in the April 9 drone attack, a spokesman for Shar Htoo Waw Technical Force told People’s Spring media.
He also said that Soe Win was badly injured when a beam fell on him during the attack.
Amid the rumors that Soe Win was killed, junta spokesman Major-General Zaw Min Tun told BBC on April 10 that Soe Win was performing his duties as normal.
He also told the Voice of America on April 17 that reports that Soe Win was receiving treatment for injuries sustained in drone attacks were false.
While Zaw Min Tun has said twice that Soe Win is alive and kicking, the deputy military chief’s disappearance continues to cause rumors.
Despite official denials, another rumor circulating claims that Soe Win disappeared from public because Min Aung Hlaing purged him.
With the Myanmar military suffering a string of heavy defeats and humiliations over the past five months, Min Aung Hlaing’s popularity has been waning, and military supporters are expressing their support for Soe Win to take over the military, sources in the Myanmar military said.
One event is mentioned in support of the purge claim. Just before the Thingyan Festival, junta troops arrested former Lieutenant General Myint Hlaing at his house for alleged corruption.
The former chairman of the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in Naypyitaw, Myint Hlaing is a known as a hardliner. He was a close associate of former deputy junta chief Maung Aye and served as agriculture minister under Thein Sein’s administration from 2011 to 2016. He is notorious for telling farmers to skip one meal a day to save money to repay their agricultural loans to the government.
When USDP members were targeted by resistance forces in the early days of the post-coup armed revolt, Myint Hlaing demanded that USDP members be armed to protect themselves – a move that earned him support from party members in Naypyitaw. However, he has often criticized Min Aung Hlaing for being too soft on resistance forces, which analysts say is the real reason for his arrest.
There is speculation that two other generals were arrested along with Myint Hlaing for allegedly plotting to oust Min Aung Hlaing. The Irrawaddy however could not verify this.
At the same time, rumors are circulating that Hlaing’s cohort, Quartermaster-General Lieutenant-General Kyaw Swar Lin, will be promoted to deputy military chief.
To answer their questions, military observers are waiting to see if the regime soon announces that Soe Win has “retired for health reasons.” The phrase is a classic junta euphemism for “sacked.”
