Since the 2021 coup, the military junta has progressively lost military and governing control over large swathes of Myanmar. Arakan (Rakhine) State in western Myanmar has witnessed a particularly dramatic loss of control by the military junta. This loss of junta control is primarily due to the actions of the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA), which built up its governing reach and capacity during the ceasefire period from late 2020 until October 2023, and since November 2023 has achieved devastating military defeats against the junta.
Rakhine has long been neglected economically and repressed politically by the central Myanmar state. Since the early 2010s, the region has experienced multiple bouts of intense armed conflict, large-scale displacement and outward refugee flows, as well as military abuses against civilians. These older and more recent processes have both created a situation in which the population of Rakhine is impoverished and insecure, and regional stability is threatened.
The developments of the last few years, and particularly of the last few months, have resulted in the ULA/AA becoming the most important governing actor in Rakhine, including for maintaining order, providing justice, and delivering public services. The ULA has rapidly developed its administrative capabilities in recent years, but is aware that it still has much room for further improving these capabilities. Drawing on recent research that I conducted for the School of Governance and Public Administration, I use this article to explain why and how domestic and foreign organizations can engage with the ULA to assist them in their stated aim of fostering development and delivering lasting peace in Rakhine.
Capacity and influence
The ULA/AA was founded relatively recently – in 2009 – and first became openly active in Rakhine State in the mid-2010s. Despite its relative youthfulness, the ULA/AA is now one of the strongest resistance organizations in Myanmar. After its recent battles with the Myanmar military, the Arakan Army has extended its control beyond rural areas to include numerous urban areas, and governs diverse communities, including Rakhine, Rohingya, and other minority groups residing across Rakhine. Of the 17 townships in Rakhine, the AA now fully controls eight and partially controls another five. It also now fully controls the strategic Paletwa Township, situated on the border with Chin State. As the AA’s military territorial control expands, so does the administrative workload of the ULA. It seems unlikely that the Myanmar military will be able to significantly reverse the recent territorial gains made by the AA in the near future, if ever. The ULA is now the primary governance actor in Rakhine, and looks set to be so for some time. It is therefore essential that domestic and foreign actors committed to aiding the people of Rakhine earnestly engage with the ULA.
Humanitarian needs
Following intensified fighting with the Myanmar Military since late 2023, the number of internally displaced persons across Rakhine State has soared above 300,000. To ensure the effective delivery of humanitarian aid amid blockades imposed by the Myanmar military council, urgent collaboration is required between international and national organizations with the ULA’s Humanitarian and Development Coordination Office.
Public services
The people of Rakhine have long endured a lack of investment in basic public services, and the recent conflict has exacerbated this situation significantly. The ULA is now the primary governance actor for much of Rakhine’s population and would greatly benefit from financial support and appropriate technical support. This support is crucial for repairing and maintaining infrastructure such as roads and bridges, ensuring a consistent supply of electricity and water, keeping schools and hospitals operational while improving their standards, establishing functioning justice systems, and providing assistance to other essential governance sectors.
Economic development
In public press briefings with the media, the ULA consistently demonstrates a non-aggressive stance towards economic investments in Rakhine, so long as these are beneficial to the development of Rakhine. The ULA looks outwards and actively encourages the Rakhine population to prepare for regional trade and business ventures with neighboring countries and existing partners. This applies to both existing projects – such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport and the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone and National Gas project – and potential future projects. Engaging with the ULA to help develop their expertise in energy management, environmental preservation policies and practices, as well as economic policies, would be timely and supportive for the people of Rakhine.
Social cohesion
Unresolved historical communal conflicts in Rakhine continue to affect the establishment of mutual trust and relationships necessary for fully inclusive participation by Rakhine’s various ethnic groups in the ULA’s governance system. However, in the face of deliberate efforts by the military junta to exacerbate intercommunal divides and mistrust – including forcibly conscripting Rohingya and forcing them to fight against the ULA – the ULA is actively trying to promote peaceful coexistence among diverse Rakhine communities. The ULA has appointed local administrators not only from the Rakhine community, but also from Muslim communities, and other minority groups in Rakhine. Further, the ULA has established communication offices for addressing complaints in case the action of any ULA official disrupts its efforts to promote peaceful coexistence.
In stark contrast to the military junta, the ULA is committed to regional stability and peace among diverse communities in Rakhine. The ULA is also very popular with much of the population in Rakhine, giving it significant political capital that can be used to try to change attitudes and behaviors in ways that reduce intercommunal mistrust and make peaceful co-existence more likely.
Moving forward
The ULA is now the most important military and governance actor in Rakhine, including for issues such as humanitarian assistance, providing public services, economic development, and social cohesion and peaceful coexistence. The ULA’s statements and actions demonstrate that it is approaching these issues responsibly, in ways intended to benefit all the people of Rakhine and to promote regional stability. Despite the ULA rapidly developing its administrative and technical capabilities in recent years, it still has much scope to further improve these capabilities, and welcomes appropriate assistance from external organizations. The ULA also urgently needs more funding to help it meet the humanitarian and public service needs of the people of Rakhine and welcomes appropriate funding. The ULA created its Humanitarian and Development Coordination Office to facilitate coordination of domestic and foreign organizations. Any organizations interested in assisting the people of Rakhine and promoting regional stability should approach this office.
Mra Thida is a locally based researcher who has been working on research projects within the peace and conflict, good governance, and social development sectors, partnering with both national and international organizations.
