The Myanmar regime on Saturday activated the country’s conscription law, shocking the nation.
The most likely immediate outcome is that young people, unwilling to perform national military service, will either flee the country or—if they have the money—pay bribes to authorities to avoid it.
Many people are concerned that the regime is rounding up civilians to work as porters. Some anticipate that the law will drive more young people to join the anti-regime forces. Maybe. But since the coup, there has been no shortage of young people joining the armed resistance. The number of volunteers fighting for the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) is estimated to be as high as 100,000, though most are not fully armed or trained.
It is safe to say that the regime will not succeed in enforcing the law.
Under the law—officially the People’s Military Service Law—it can summon all young men and women to serve in the armed forces for at least two years as it struggles to cope with the growing military offensives by anti-regime ethnic armed groups and their allied resistance forces across the country. In 2015 the UN estimated Myanmar’s youth population at roughly 10 million—it will have grown since then.
First promulgated 65 years ago, the law was never enforced by previous governments.
The enforcement of the law indicates that the regime is desperate to recruit more people as its military has been seriously depleted by casualties in fighting against resistance forces in recent months.
During Operation 1027, thousands of Myanmar troops have surrendered to ethnic resistance forces, fled, or been killed. Note that the regime also lost a swathe of territory in the offensive and today controls no more than 50 per cent of the nation.
In fact, last year, the regime implemented several measures to replenish its combat forces including recalling veterans as well as deserters, convicts and soldiers who were absent without leave. It also forcibly recruited people either for labor or into militia groups. However, few veterans turned up and the measures failed. Now, the regime has taken the drastic step of enforcing compulsory conscription. It is a sign of the severity of the military’s manpower shortage.
The move comes more than a month after China forcefully intervened in the fighting in northern Shan State—where regime troops have suffered heavy casualties—by brokering a ceasefire.
Where does the military envision the new recruits will come from?
The law targets young people aged between 18 and 35. It is expected the regime will target Burman-controlled regions such as Yangon, Mandalay and Ayeyarwady, as well as Naypyitaw and major cities still under the control of the junta.
It is odd to see this law being enforced at this time.
The regime is deeply unpopular and its abysmal record of human rights violations and war crimes is roundly condemned by much of the population and the international community. Simply put, the regime is at war with its own people.
The national military service law is designed to train young people to prosecute that war, and it will escalate the violence. The regime’s advisors say the military can recruit and train 100,000 youth and fight back against the insurgents. Trainers from abroad, meaning Russia, can come and train them, they say.
You wish.
Analysts point out that the law presents an opportunity for the regime to extort money from people, especially well-off families wishing to avoid conscription for their children. The regime, however, will not spare the poor from being milked as well. Many poor families will not have a choice, or will simply ask their young ones to leave.
Junta boss Senior General Min Aung Hlaing is clearly clutching at straws. This is his last resort, an attempt to save his own life and those of his relatives.
Since the coup, Myanmar’s youth population has suffered greatly. Aside from the brutal crackdowns on anti-regime protests, in which they witnessed relatives and colleagues being gunned down or imprisoned, and which prompted many of them to join the armed resistance, they have suffered from the economic crisis, business closures, and loss of employment and education. Under the regime, their future looks bleak. Furthermore, companies and factories are worried that they are going to lose young workers.
Now, with this conscription law, many youths who don’t want to serve in the military will have to make hard decisions. Stay or leave? The regime is going to remain in the trenches. They are digging in.
But this time they are digging their own graves.
