With the junta’s six-month state of emergency expiring on Monday, Myanmar people and observers have one question on their minds: what’s next?
One possibility is that the regime will again violate the Constitution to extend the emergency for another six months from July 31. The junta has so far extended it three times, most recently in February. The Constitution permits only two six-month extensions.
An alternative option would be for the junta to form an interim government with retired generals to maintain its rule under the guise of a civilian administration.
Speculation about Myanmar’s post-July 31 political landscape is being fueled by the junta’s recent political moves, as it struggles to quell a two-year-old nationwide popular armed resistance.
On July 9, the regime allowed Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai to meet the imprisoned Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, making him the first foreign visitor to gain access to her since the coup in February 2021.
Two weeks on, it reportedly transferred the civilian leader from prison to house arrest this week. She then reportedly met with Ti Khun Myat, the Lower House Speaker under her National League for Democracy (NLD) government prior to the 2021 putsch. She is also likely to meet Deng Xijuan, China’s special envoy for Asian Affairs, who is visiting the country.
The regime’s spokesperson told Voice of America Burmese on Friday that he had no idea about these developments – from Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest to the meetings.
This coming Tuesday, the junta is likely to announce an amnesty for political prisoners to mark the consecration of its new giant sitting Buddha statue. Some sources said the amnesty announcement would incorporate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest along with the transfer of other NLD government leaders like President U Win Myint and Mandalay Chief Minister Dr Zaw Myint Maung from prison to home confinement.
Yet for all these developments and more in the pipeline, analysts expect no meaningful changes in Myanmar after July 31.
They point out that the transfer of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest is another tactic used by the junta to ease international pressure against its rule. The previous military regime that ran Myanmar from 1988 until early 2011 also allowed visiting foreign envoys to see her whenever it faced mounting international pressure.
Some observers say the extension of emergency rule remains a strong possibility, given junta boss Min Aung Hlaing recently hinted to his Cabinet that “much remains to be done to restore stability and rule of law across the union.”
However, analysts do not dismiss the possibility of an interim government being formed with ex-generals. But they said the chances were thin given Min Aung Hlaing’s well-documented craving for absolute power, which could be thwarted by an interim administration.
Formation of an interim government would occur only if the regime boss recognizes he cannot control the current deteriorating situation in the country.
And if that happens, Myanmar would still be under a military-guided transition for years to come. In other words, military rule would be here to stay.
