Even his New Year message was short. Junta boss Min Aung Hlaing spoke for a mere five minutes in a televised address to a nation at war.
He seemed ill-prepared.
He did not discuss his military’s loss of more than a dozen towns to resistance offensives since late October, but did what he routinely does – blame revolutionary forces in general for the disaster that has engulfed Myanmar since he seized power from a civilian government in Feb. 2021.
He vowed to revive the economy, called for cooperation in a nationwide census slated for 2024 and advised against regionalism without specifically mentioning the offensives against his military in ethnic states.
Myanmar would have developed considerably if the resistance had not damaged the country and property of the people, he said.
The regime will make economic development its top priority this year by strengthening micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, he said without elaborating.
Myanmar’s economy has been in free fall since his putsch. Foreign investors have fled. Power cuts and fuel shortages are commonplace. Border trade with China has been halted by fighting in northern Shan State. Only inflation and unemployment have risen – to unprecedented levels.
A December report by the World Bank downgraded Myanmar’s growth forecast to a mere 1 percent for the fiscal year ending in March due to rising conflict, trade and logistics disruptions, kyat volatility and high inflation.
Min Aung Hlaing said the nationwide census scheduled for late this year is crucial for the planned general election. But so far, he has yet to announce a date for the poll. In Myanmar, people have yet to express enthusiasm for the proposed poll, while the international community is dismissive that voting organized by Myanmar’s military will be either free or fair.
Min Aung Hlaing concluded his short speech by advising against regionalism, without naming specific ethnic regions or the ongoing offensives that have delivered heavy defeats to his army.
However, at an emergency meeting of the National Defense Security Council on Nov. 8 triggered by Operation 1027, the junta boss alleged that the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) is trying to restore power in Laukkai and eyeing an autonomous Kokang State, while the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) also has set its sights on an autonomous Palaung State.
Together with the Arakan Army (AA), the two ethnic armies launched Operation 1027 on Oct. 27. The offensive is widely considered the biggest military challenge the regime has faced since the coup.
The AA is fighting the regime in Rakhine State in western Myanmar. It has long been promoting the “Way of Rakhita” – an ideology calling for the “restoration of Arakan sovereignty to the people of Arakan” – among Rakhine (Arakan) communities at home and abroad. In less than a decade, it has become one of the most powerful ethnic armed groups in the country.
A few days before Min Aung Hlaing delivered his brief New Year’s message, the National Democratic Alliance Army – known as the Mongla Group in eastern Shan State – vowed to strive for full autonomy in its region. On Tuesday, the MNDAA said it would turn territory recently seized from the regime into Shan State Special Region 1.
The Brotherhood Alliance has seized control of a dozen towns and over 400 junta outposts in two months. Still, in his televised message, Min Aung Hlaing said that his regime could overcome the difficulties and challenges the country faces with the cooperation of ethnic groups.
The reality is that he has failed politically, economically, militarily and in administration. He does not even have public support, let alone cooperation.
He is forever falling short.
