The anti-regime “Operation 1027” offensive has spread to Sagaing and could now expand nationwide, according to resistance forces and analysts.
Operation 1027 was launched in northern Shan State on Oct. 27 by the ethnic Brotherhood Alliance, comprising the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Arakan Army. Over the past 13 days, it has seized at least seven towns and 125 junta bases, the MNDAA reported.
The offensive quickly spread to Sagaing Region, where a combined force of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) took on junta troops in Tigyaing Township.
Resistance forces then launched simultaneous attacks on at least 10 junta outposts in Sagaing and Magwe regions as part of Operation 1027.
On Nov. 3, resistance groups attacked junta bases and police outposts in seven Sagaing townships – Homalin, Tamu, Kalay, Kalewa, Kawlin, Wuntho and Kyun Hla – as well as Magwe’s Gangaw Township. The district-level town of Kawlin and Khampat Town in Tamu Township were seized by the resistance after four days of fighting.
A Tigyaing PDF representative said the coordinated attacks would expand to the rest of Sagaing’s townships.
“The offensive will steadily move to the lower part of [Sagaing’s] Katha district and the middle of the country,” he told The Irrawaddy.
A leader of Homalin PDF said that PDFs across Sagaing townships are preparing to seize towns.
In order to occupy the whole of Sagaing Region, local resistance forces will need to attack junta bases in Shwebo district while Chin State-based resistance groups seize territory in northern Sagaing’s Kani, Kalay and Kalewa townships, said U Than Soe Naing, a political and military affairs expert.
“This way, the operations will expand south and meet in Mandalay, Myanmar’s second- largest city. If this happens, the junta would be unable to send reinforcements to northern Shan State,” U Than Soe Naing told The Irrawaddy.
The offensive expanded southeast to Kayah State on Nov. 7 when Karenni resistance forces launched “Operation 1107” to support Operation 1027. So far, at least two Myanmar junta bases have been seized in Mese Township, the Karenni National People’s Liberation Front reported on Wednesday.
U Than Soe Naing said Operation 1107 was launched to liberate Kayah State and support the resistance’s advance to Pyinmana, near the junta’s Naypyitaw fortress.
Meantime, fighting is escalating between the powerful Karen National Union (KNU) and junta troops as both wrestle for control of the Yangon-Mandalay highway. The KNU’s Karen National Liberation Army needs to seize important bases at Taungoo, Daik-U, Pyuntaza and Nyaunglebin in order to control the route.
“If these missions are completed, there is a possibility that all [resistance forces] will march on Naypyitaw,” U Than Soe Naing told The Irrawaddy.
The administrative capital is bordered to the north by PDF-controlled heartlands, to the south by Bago Region where the KNU is battling the regime, to the west by Magwe Region, another PDF stronghold, and to the west by Kayah (Karenni) State where the Karenni National Progressive Party and PDFs are active.
U Yee Mon, Defense Minister for the civilian National Unity Government, said resistance operations across the country are now being coordinated under a single nationwide strategy.
“Implementation of this strategy means revolutionary forces are able to create good opportunities in every region,” he said.
The regime has meanwhile gone into defensive mode, vowing to take action to regain lost territory. However, reports indicate that junta troops decimated by heavy casualties and mass surrenders in northern Shan cannot be reinforced because resistance groups have taken control of major roads.
Analysts say the regime is also struggling to fill gaps in battalions as soldiers are deployed from area to area in response to fresh outbreaks of fighting.
