In this interview with The Irrawaddy, veteran democracy activist and former 88 Generation student leader Ko Mya Aye discusses Myanmar under the military regime, the chances for peace talks, his impressions of the civilian National Unity Government and the prospects for 2024.
How has Myanmar changed in the three years since the 2021 coup? What are the differences from 1988?
In 1988 the transition to a multi-party system meant the 1990 general election did take place.
But Announcement 1/1990, which rejected the election results, was issued and the drafting process of the 2008 Constitution began. Economically, the country shifted gears too, moving from a closed-door economy to more of an open-market approach.
During the 1990s, the previous military junta signed numerous ceasefire and peace agreements with the ethnic armed organizations (EAOs).
Now everything is reversed. There is no political reform and the ceasefire signatories have dusted off their battle gear to return to the armed struggle.
The economy has taken a nosedive, plunging us into crisis everywhere. There have been no positive developments during these three years and the outlook is deeply troubling.
Some choose to fight while others call for negotiations. What are your thoughts?
If we don’t have a chance to tackle this politically, there will be more bloodshed.
With negotiations, the most important part is where you stand during talks.
A majority want a federal democracy and the old playbook to implement peace under the 2008 Constitution is dysfunctional now.
We should consider how to draft a new constitution reflecting federal democratic practices in consultation with and also getting support from the international community.
Negotiation in these circumstances is more likely to succeed.
But if there are preconditions from the regime to uphold the 2008 Constitution and the National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), no progress will be possible.
Even the EAOs that signed the NCA have returned to the battlefield as they realized it is impossible.
But if everyone shared the will to establish a federal democracy, negotiations might succeed.
What is your view of the National Unity Government [NUG]?
The NUG was formed for many reasons and has its strengths and weaknesses inherent in its nature, like any organization.
The NUG struggles to foster unity.
This is the nature of Myanmar’s crisis.
The goals of the EAOs are also diverse and when interests are different, achieving consensus is difficult.
All these groups are not simply aiming to reinstate the 2020 general election results.
We are focused on nation-building with the aim to build a federal democracy.
Between 2010 and 2020, there were peace negotiations with some EOAs and the NCA was signed in 2015 through the 2008 Constitution. However, circumstances have changed and the NCA approach is in deadlock.
This led to the EAOs, including the Karen National Union, who signed the NCA, returning to armed conflict. We have to see this clearly.
The underlying problems cannot be addressed if the approach is conservative thinking or blaming these problems on interference from the NUG and the international community.
It is an extremely puzzling situation. During the initial NCA negotiations, armed groups like the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Arakan Army and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army were involved in the initial NCA drafting process. However, those organizations were not allowed to sign the pact.
The military now has to renegotiate with these groups.
History has repeated itself.
If we don’t learn from history and keep calling these groups “terrorist organizations”, military engagement will escalate.
Eventually the union may struggle to survive.
Before it’s too late we must think about how to build our country.
We need to find a path to federal democracy. I’m referring to all stakeholders, including the NUG, military and everyone else.
What is your take on China brokering negotiations between the Brotherhood Alliance and the regime?
We should be careful with that. We tend to perceive that it is assistance by a country if we consider it as a “friend”, then we tend to perceive it as interference by a foreign country if it doesn’t get along with us.
Our problem is that we are unable to solve our own problems. That’s why other countries have to get involved. And we don’t see the fault in ourselves, we keep blaming other countries for interfering. This behavior has persisted for around 70 years.
We are between stronger neighboring countries, India and China and we draw inspiration from western models of democracy as we want to form our own.
I’m not saying we should copy other models. What’s important is to figure out how we can utilize these ideas accordingly with our country. We should be allies with everyone. We shouldn’t be a puppet of any other country.
Just because we can’t solve our crises, we shouldn’t blame other countries, like China and the US.
Instead, we should focus on how to solve our problems. When solving our own problems, we must stand with our citizens’ opinions. We can’t simply call injustice justice.
Are you concerned about a possible disintegration of Myanmar?
Countries can easily disintegrate if smaller nations are forcibly integrated. The fall of the Soviet Union, resulting in 15 separate countries, is as an example.
Following the USSR’s collapse, crises such as the Chechen war, Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict and Yugoslav wars resulted in significant bloodshed.
It is evident that only when a union or state is established, not by force, but on principles of harmony, righteousness, justice and equal opportunities can it endure in the long run.
The fate of our country hinges entirely on its people’s choices.
If the fundamental rights of all groups are honored and implemented, nothing can divide us. We must honor what each ethnic group wants: that’s the essence of democracy.
It’s crucial to recognize that they are fighting because they see no other way to secure their rights.
Whether the union will disintegrate or not, what I am afraid of more is the union will spiral down into more bloodshed. Resorting to hostility and force to prevent any disintegration will only hasten our downfall.
Some analysts have predicted that the armed conflicts will escalate in 2024. What do you think?
It had been over three years since the 2021 coup. The resolution of this crisis hinges on the willingness of the regime to adjust its policies.
If they remain inflexible, fighting will persist. Even if there is a temporary ceasefire, fighting will probably resume shortly after.
While some may believe that dialogue is only possible after one side achieves a decisive victory, I reject this idea.
I am not saying it is wrong. We are not fighting a foreign enemy but internal factions. That’s why a policy shift is needed.
The drafting of a federal democratic constitution must begin. If not, the crisis will go beyond repair. Even now, we are in a difficult situation.
The lives of over 50 million people are getting worse.
Regarding our country’s future, if there is no change in policies in 2024, we will go deeper and deeper into darkness. It is very serious.
The regime is making desperate attempts to hold an election. Is it possible?
Armed conflicts are erupting in several states and regions. How is an election possible in such circumstances?
If an election is to be held under these circumstances, how can inclusivity be ensured? Considering these factors, it is not yet feasible to hold any election.
Our people would not support an election held under the 2008 Constitution and many would refuse to vote. It would be advisable to focus on building a federal democratic constitution in the next couple of years, with the supervision and assistance of the international community.
By supervision, I mean providing support rather than interfering. Only through this cooperation can an election have a chance.
Some say dialogue is impossible. What do you think?
Many people say negotiations cannot bring any resolution. It is understandable given the history of meaningless and fruitless negotiations our country has experienced over the years. The key lies in the will to pursue a path to federal democracy.
Everyone may demand preconditions for talks. To overcome the preconditions we must arrange preliminary meetings to have unofficial talks with low-profile junta representatives.
It is important to be aware of the international context.
The USA, China, ASEAN, UK, United Nations and European Union can back up the process. Laos is the current ASEAN chair and it has good relations with China. It will be interesting to see how they proceed with ASEAN’s five-point consensus.
So we must prioritize finding ways to draft a federal democratic constitution.
In the global context, dialogue and military engagement often occur simultaneously.
Engaging in dialogue does not mean ending the revolution or making deals.
It is important to firmly hold onto your principles and have a dialogue based on those principles. The previous national reconciliation process failed due to a lack of proper principles.
We were simply daydreaming at that time. We cannot afford to do that anymore.
