Myanmar’s junta-appointed election body has announced plans to hold voting in every township, even though much of the country remains under resistance control or engulfed in fighting.
This raises the question: Is a nationwide election truly possible?
To achieve its goal, the regime must first reclaim lost territories. Indeed, it is now intensifying its efforts to do just that, escalating attacks and adopting new tactics in a bid to retake as much ground as possible.
The election commission said the election will be conducted in phases, with the first phase scheduled for Dec. 28 in 102 townships. It has not yet announced the dates of the other phases.
At home and abroad, the planned polls have been condemned as a political maneuver designed to entrench military rule under the guise of democratic transition.
Around 144 out of the country’s 330 townships are under the control of the resistance, while 79 are experiencing ongoing conflict.
Recently, the regime recaptured Thabeikkyin in Mandalay Region, Nawnghkio in northern Shan State, Mobye in southern Shan, and Demoso in Karenni (Kayah) State from resistance forces.
The regime has also escalated attacks in an attempt to retake lost territories in Mandalay, Sagaing, Magwe, Bago and Tanintharyi regions and Kachin, northern Shan, Karenni and Karen states ahead of its election, repeatedly bombarding resistance-controlled towns and areas while deploying large numbers of troops.
Zin Yaw, a former army captain who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) following the 2021 military coup, said the junta’s pre-election offensives are intended to weaken resistance forces ahead of the polls. By tying them down and exhausting their supplies of ammunition, weapons and manpower, the regime seeks to ensure resistance forces cannot launch large-scale disruptive attacks during the election period, he added.
In its bid to regain territory, the regime is deploying warplanes and artillery units, indiscriminately bombarding civilian areas while provoking clashes with resistance forces. This has seen a sharp rise in civilian casualties and mass evacuations.
Zin Yaw said the regime’s overall strategy is not aimed at a decisive victory but at creating the appearance of stability needed to stage its sham election. It seems their offensives are being launched so that even if they cannot fully capture and hold territory, they can create a situation in which they can at least go through the charade of voting. So the regime’s military operations appear to be temporary or short-term offensives aimed at seizing areas just for show, he said.
Kyarr Khin Sein, a female resistance fighter with Myaung Drone Force (MDF) in upper Myanmar, told The Irrawaddy the regime is attempting to reestablish control and administration over territories it previously lost in order to push ahead with its planned election.
In the past, regime forces killed civilians in resistance-held areas on sight, but in some recent operations they have shifted to rallying the population—urging villagers not to flee and attempting to assure them of their safety in a bid to win their trust, she said.
“They want to ensure the election goes ahead. If they can show the international community that they control these areas, they can claim legitimacy. That’s why I believe these military offensives are directly linked to their election plans,” Kyarr Khin Sein added.
However, widespread reports of arbitrary killings of civilians have emerged during the recent military offensives across the country.
In a recent operation in Mandalay’s Myingyan District, regime forces killed around 10 civilians while raiding villages, locals said.
Holding elections there would be impossible, local people said, as only Myingyan town remains under junta control; most rural areas and provincial towns like Natogyi are held by resistance forces, while Taungtha and Ngazun face frequent attacks.
The regime is now attempting to retake lost territories in Myingyan District, deploying military columns with large numbers of troops.
In areas where it has been unable to send in ground troops, the regime has been carrying out airstrikes or artillery attacks on towns and villages under resistance control, causing civilian casualties on a daily basis.
Ko Nway Oo, a resistance leader from Sagaing Region’s Myaung Township, said that in the past, regime raids usually involved 100 or 150 troops. If they lost around 20 soldiers, the regime forces would typically retreat. But now the regime is attacking in much greater strength, sending in 200 to 300 troops per raid. It appears the regime forces are being forced to fight as suicide squads, with orders to advance no matter what, and with no option to retreat, he said.
“Because of this relentless style of fighting, in the long run, our resistance side faces shortages of ammunition, and eventually we are sometimes forced to pull back,” he said.
Former army major Naung Yoe, another CDM member, said the regime has significantly altered its tactics by reorganizing ground operations and restructuring its forces.
It is now combining ground offensives, airstrikes and heavy artillery in large-scale encirclement and blockade operations aimed at devastating entire resistance-held areas.
“These new tactics may appear to result in military successes in the short term, but in the long run the regime could face a collective public backlash with serious consequences,” Naung Yoe said.
Zin Yaw noted that junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has framed the situation as if an election confined to Naypyitaw, Mandalay and Yangon, with ballots cast only by military personnel and their families, would still represent a successful election.
“During his visits across the country, the junta chief has been signaling that even if only soldiers, their families, and close circles vote, the regime can still claim the election as successful and legitimate,” he said.
Many revolutionary groups, including several resistance forces and ethnic armed organizations, have denounced the junta’s planned election as a sham.
