Myanmar’s military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) has already secured enough seats to form a government together with military appointees, ahead of the third and final phase of the junta-held election. The outcome marks the USDP’s pending return to power after its rigged election victory in 2010.
The Union Election Commission (UEC) split the polls into three stages running from December 28 to January 25, citing instability. The vote has been widely condemned at home and abroad as a brazen bid to entrench rule by the generals five years after their 2021 coup.
By the end of phase two, the USDP had amassed enough advance ballots alongside constitutionally reserved military seats to form a new government.
Domestic and international observers argue the election – held under tight security with regime opponents barred – is engineered to produce a foregone conclusion.
Parliament in Numbers
A party needs to secure 50 percent of the reduced 588 seats in the national legislature in order to form a government.
The USDP won 194 seats in the first two election phases. Combined with the military’s quota of 166 seats, the party now controls more than 360 seats—well above the 294-majority required to govern.
The threshold was lowered after the junta called off elections in dozens of townships where it has lost control, cutting the Union Parliament from 664 members to 588.
However, the military retained its quota and, with the USDP seats, has now achieved the threshold to entrench its rule.
Results Under Fire
In the first-phase vote held across 102 townships, the USDP won 124 seats—103 in the Lower House and 21 in the Upper House. Advance ballots reportedly accounted for 77 percent of the gains. Opposition complaints of a lack of transparency in advance voting were shrugged off by the junta-appointed Union Election Commission (UEC).
The UEC has yet to announce the Phase Two results, but USDP officials said the party has won another 70 seats, bringing its total to 194. With the military’s 166 seat-quota, the bloc has secured a governing majority before a single vote is cast in Phase 3 on January 25.
Overall Picture
The ongoing election comes five years after the military scrapped the results of the 2020 vote, arrested President U Win Myint and State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, and dissolved the elected National League for Democracy (NLD).
With the NLD barred, the polls mark a USDP return after more than a decade of landslide NLD victories since the transition to civilian rule in 2012.
The USDP last ruled in 2010 under General Thein Sein, after the NLD boycotted the election. The Thein Sein administration packed ministries with retired military officers while appointing ethnic Shan physician Dr. Sai Mauk Kham as a civilian figurehead in the role of vice president.
Analysts forecast a return to “military ministers in civilian clothing” after Parliament convenes in March to appoint a new government expected by April.
A path has also been cleared for coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to retain power in civilian clothing. The new president will be chosen from three vice presidents elected respectively by the Lower House, Upper House, and military appointees. Pro‑military media and USDP figures have already begun lobbying for Min Aung Hlaing, and the junta boss has not ruled out the possibility.
Myanmar now sits poised for a return to military rule in civilian guise, as USDP veterans and regime loyalists prepare to take control of the country’s political future.
