The fall of the Myanmar military’s North Eastern Command in the northern Shan State capital Lashio is a major blow to the military—not to mention a deep humiliation. Analysts are already predicting it is the beginning of the end for the military regime.
Established in 1972, the regional command achieved numerous battlefield victories against the Communist Party of Burma and ethnic armies. During the Myanmar military’s decades-long presence in Lashio it built formidable defensive structures. The base commanded all military activities from neighboring Mandalay Region in the west to the Chinese border in the north and east. It was one of 14 regional military commands in the country.
Now it is gone. The regional headquarters in Rakhine and Kachin states may face a similar fate. We shall see. The question now is: Is the Myanmar military at a tipping point?
The fall of the North Eastern Command will have huge consequences. Coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s leadership is in serious question. Of course, he blamed everyone but himself in his speech addressing the nation on Monday. He even accused external forces of interfering in the civil war. While he stopped short of naming the country, it was an obvious reference to China. In fact, he is the one to blame and should be held accountable by his forces.
The defeat is all the more striking given that the Myanmar military is still far superior in terms of hardware and manpower to the ethnic armies and resistance forces it has been fighting for more than three years. It possesses warplanes, helicopters, heavy artillery, naval ships, armored vehicles and mounted missiles. To its shame, none of this could prevent the loss of the military command headquarters in northeastern Shan. The loss has come as a jarring wakeup call for those analysts who cling stubbornly to the daydream that the military will ultimately prevail against the anti-regime armed resistance movement.
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army—who comprise the Brotherhood Alliance, which has inflicted a series of defeats on the junta since October last year—and their allied resistance forces possess only minimal heavy weapons and drones. In an attempt to defend Lashio, the regime prepared extensively to deter any offensive, using the time it gained during a Chinese-mediated ceasefire from January to June to put up a defensive perimeter. At the time, analysts wrote approvingly that the Myanmar military’s defensive capabilities appeared to have improved.
To capture Lashio, the MNDAA encircled it and the approximately 10,000 Myanmar junta forces—about 6,000 regular troops plus militia members—defending the city.
The MNDAA mobilized its three brigades and steadily dismantled the outer defensive positions of the Myanmar military forces, progressively shrinking the defense line and penetrating the interior of the city.
Local analysts said the ethnic Kokang army and its allies showed a high level of military competence, local support, intelligence, and strategic clarity, all of which positioned them favorably in the conflict and allowed them to win the Battle of Lashio.
More importantly, unlike in the past, the Burman population is not behind the Myanmar military. The majority of Burmans opposed the coup in 2021 and, having experienced and witnessed the brutality and atrocities of the regime, are satisfied to see it pay dearly on the battlefield. Most heartily celebrated the news of the fall of the North Eastern Command. Several senior junta military commanders responsible for the defense of Lashio were captured by the MNDAA and are now being interrogated.
However, some analysts and diplomats are now wondering whether a China-installed regime is imminent.
It is interesting to note that China reportedly put pressure on the MNDAA and its allies to stop attacking Lashio. Analysts speculated that China wanted to wait and see whether the regime would proceed with another extension of its emergency rule at the end of July. As expected, the regime did exactly that and Min Aung Hlaing is now acting president. It is important to note that the fall of Lashio and the regional command came three days after the extension of emergency rule.
The debacle in Lashio will no doubt have shaken the military. Among military supporters, the feeling of defeat, fear, anger, frustration and humiliation is palpable.
Min Aung Hlaing is no commander-in-chief of the armed forces, nor a leader of the country. He is the murderer-in-chief, a war criminal and a coward. There have been calls for him to step down and even go into exile. He will do neither.
This means we will see more offensives in the coming months. On the heels of Lashio’s fall, Kyaukme, located on the Mandalay-Lashio Road, was taken by the TNLA on Tuesday morning.
Will Pyin Oo Lwin be next?
Garrison town emptying
War veterans and holiday home buyers in Pyin Oo Lwin—a former British hill station in Mandalay Region not far from Kyaukme—have deserted the town and the real estate market there has collapsed in anticipation that war will soon arrive. The town has already come under drone and rocket attack this year.
Unconfirmed reports suggest the regime has ordered military cadets and military hospital staff in Pyin Oo Lwin—home to the military’s Defense Services Academy—to relocate to Hmawbi, Yangon.
After Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay—Myanmar’ second-largest city—is the next target of the resistance, analysts said.
Clashes have already occurred on the periphery of Mandalay city, as Mandalay People’s Defense Force, operating jointly with the TNLA, is active in that part of Mandalay Region. The regime recently sent jet fighters to bomb villages in the area, killing many civilians and children.
Residents of Mandalay—Burma’s royal capital until the British seized it in 1885—have been rattled by the news from Lashio, which is only five hours away by road.
But they are no stranger to war. Warplanes pounded the city and Royal Palace during World War II as allied forces battled the Japanese there.
If indeed war does come to the once royal city in the cold season this year, it will not be for the first time.
