Thursday will mark the third anniversary of Min Aung Hlaing’s military coup in Myanmar. Three years after his coup, it is clear that he has failed at everything, from politics and economics to military matters and diplomatic relations. The only thing he has successfully finished is the titanic Maravijaya Buddha statue that was built as part of magical rituals, known as yadaya in Burmese, to avert misfortune.
Min Aung Hlaing’s failed political objectives
Min Aung Hlaing’s said his political objectives were to hold an election, and ensure permanent peace, stability and law and order across the union.
According to the 2008 Constitution, which Min Aung Hlaing cited to justify his coup, the state of emergency is limited to two years. Min Aung Hlaing has extended it repeatedly. He can’t even work out a timeframe for the poll despite his election promise.
In September 2023, Min Aung Hlaing said that the voting would be held after a nationwide census which was expected to be completed near the end of 2024. His regime, however, has lost more than 30 towns to resistance offensives since the coup. With fighting raging in many parts of the country, it is difficult for the regime to even conduct a census.
Despite preaching for peace, Min Aung Hlaing’s regime has carried out numerous massacres and fatal air raids targeting civilians in central Myanmar as well as in Karen, Kachin and Rakhine states, and Bago Region. The regime organizes peace talks for show but has no will for peace. Major armed groups fighting the regime have shunned Min Aung Hlaing’s peace talks.
Nationwide stability and law and order prevail only on the front and back pages of the junta’s propaganda newspapers.
Min Aung Hlaing’s military failures
Min Aung Hlaing faced an armed revolt, popularly known as the Spring Revolution, shortly after he seized power in February 2021. It started in central Myanmar, the Chin Hills and Karenni (Kayah) State, but has already spread across the country. Resistance groups that launched the revolt with rudimentary hunting rifles now use drones as their air force. Min Aung Hlaing has often said publicly that his dream is to turn Myanmar’s army into a standard one, but is now lamenting that resistance drone attacks have inflicted serious damage on his army.
Myanmar’s military has been seriously depleted by desertions, defections, casualties and a recruitment crisis. This has forced the regime to publicly invite those who have gone absent without leave or deserted to return to the barracks.
The anti-regime offensive Operation 1027 launched in northeastern Myanmar has delivered Myanmar’s military its greatest humiliation in its history. The regime lost more than 30 towns and over 500 outposts in two months. Moreover, hundreds of soldiers, including eight brigadier-generals, have surrendered. The humiliation is not yet over as the ethnic Rakhine Arakan Army, which Myanmar’s military considered trivial a decade ago, keeps seizing junta positions in northern Rakhine State, after having gained control over much of rural Rakhine.
Even military supporters have publicly called on Min Aung Hlaing to step down.
Earlier this month, the Karen State Border Guard Force split from Myanmar’s military, dealing a huge blow to the junta in Karen State.
Meanwhile, the Pa-O National Liberation Organization, one of the signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement, has formally exited peace talks with the regime, declaring that it will join the fight against Myanmar’s military, which came as another blow to a regime already weakened by a nationwide anti-regime resistance movement.
Min Aung Hlaing’s economic failures
After the coup, Min Aung Hlaing said he would prioritize food security in Myanmar, modernize the agriculture industry, promote exports by developing micro, small and medium enterprises, and ensure a sufficient supply of cooking oil domestically (with the surplus exported). After three years, none of this has been accomplished.
In reality, things have worsened. Agricultural output has declined because of armed conflict. The economy has faltered due to economic sanctions and the withdrawal of foreign investments. The prices of food and other necessities like medicines and fuel have shot up due to high inflation and the depreciation of the kyat.
Despite the big talk, Min Aung Hlaing can’t even manage to supply sufficient electricity for manufacturing. Industrial zones in Myanmar’s commercial capital, Yangon, are not spared from blackouts, and power outages are even worse in other parts of the country.
Production costs have doubled as factories have to operate with diesel generators. Consumers suffer.
Min Aung Hlaing has blamed the National League for Democracy government for the post-coup economic disaster, claiming that the elected government he ousted was incompetent and failed to implement import substitution. He blamed unscrupulous business people and profiteers for soaring food prices.
Long lines of vehicles at fuel stations and long lines of people waiting to buy cooking oil have become regular sights over the past three years.
While economists say Myanmar is on the brink of becoming a failed state economically, Min Aung Hlaing brazenly said at his Jan. 29 meeting of his cabinet that the economy has bounced back in all regions and states except Kachin, Kayah (Karenni) and Rakhine.
Min Aung Hlaing’s diplomatic failures
Of all the military regimes in Myanmar’s history, Min Aung Hlaing’s regime is the most rejected one. Myanmar’s first dictator, Ne Win, traveled to the United States, China and Europe. Than Shwe also traveled to China and fellow countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). But Min Aung Hlaing was only able to go to Russia over the past three years.
While China has provided support for Min Aung Hlaing’s regime on the international stage and at the United Nations, it ignored Min Aung Hlaing’s request to visit Beijing.
Min Aung Hlaing has also been excluded from ASEAN summits as he failed to comply with the regional bloc’s peace plan for Myanmar, known as the Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an immediate end to hostilities and dialogue among all stakeholders.
Western countries, including the US and Britain, downgraded their diplomatic relations with Myanmar following the coup, and even Russia and some ASEAN countries chose not to appoint new ambassadors after existing ambassadors served their term in Myanmar.
On the other hand, bilateral ties between the regime and its major arms supplier, Russia, have reached a new level over the past three years, with cooperation expanding to sectors from nuclear technology to education. Direct flights have also been launched. The regime also maintains good ties with neighbors – China, India and Thailand.
The regime has resumed diplomatic ties with North Korea, and has also opened a consulate in one of its major arms suppliers, Belarus, which borders Russia.
In August 2023, the regime expelled East Timor’s chargé d’affaires from Yangon after the country’s President Jose Ramos-Horta publicly expressed support for the National Unity Government. The regime even sponsored protests against East Timor’s president and the junta’s media attacked him.
Besides being addicted to failure, Min Aung Hlaing is thin skinned.
