• Burmese
Tuesday, July 8, 2025
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Irrawaddy
25 °c
Yangon
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
No Result
View All Result
The Irrawaddy
No Result
View All Result
Home Business

FDI, Aid ‘Will Dry Up’ If Burma’s 2015 Elections Are Postponed

William Boot by William Boot
November 6, 2014
in Uncategorized
Reading Time: 3 mins read
0 0
A A
FDI

Aung San Suu Kyi walks passed military MPs as she is about to take the admission oath in Burma’s Parliament in 2012. (Photo: Reuters)

27.4k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Burma’s economic and social development will grind to a halt if rising military interference in politics delays the 2015 national parliamentary elections, a business analysis warns.

Foreign aid and investment would likely dry up and there would be pressure on some key Western governments to re-impose economic sanctions, said US-based business analysts IHS.

The international assessor said in a Global Insight Country Risk report on Burma that there is an “increased risk” of a delay in the elections because of factional rivalries between the military, Parliament and the ruling party. It sees the possibility of a three-way race emerging for the presidency amid growing nervousness by the military about a loss of power and influence.

RelatedPosts

Myanmar People Skeptical of Junta’s Promises of Election, Peace

Myanmar People Skeptical of Junta’s Promises of Election, Peace

July 7, 2025
231
Timor-Leste Hits Back at Myanmar Junta’s Objection to ASEAN Membership

Timor-Leste Hits Back at Myanmar Junta’s Objection to ASEAN Membership

July 7, 2025
434
TNLA Defies Myanmar Junta Push to Cede Shan Towns in China Talks  

TNLA Defies Myanmar Junta Push to Cede Shan Towns in China Talks  

July 7, 2025
470

“The 2015 election is widely perceived as the leading barometer of stability, and failure to hold elections would also compromise investor confidence and increase the risk premium of doing business in [Burma], which would likely lead to an escalation in insurance premiums for large infrastructure projects along with muted market interest in the Thilawa, Dawei, and Kyaukphyu special economic zones,” IHS said.

“This would then jeopardize the leadership’s efforts to attract investment in infrastructure projects that are needed to wean the economy off reliance on the extractive industries.”

The assessment envisages a scenario in which mass street protests might take place and business activities curtailed if the military gains the upper hand.

IHS warns clients that delayed elections, due in the final quarter of next year, are looking increasingly likely if rivalries between the Tatmadaw (military), the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) and the opposition are not resolved.

The military is “motivated by fears” that a national ceasefire agreement with rebel militias would strengthen an NLD-ethnic groups’ alliance.

“The real fear is that the 2015 election will lead to this bloc dominating the Presidential Electoral College [PEC], which is the body responsible for electing the next president. This would then reduce the prospects of a military-backed candidate securing the presidency.”

The HIS warning comes amid recent hostilities between the Burma Army and ethnic armed rebel groups.

“The renewed offensives are likely intended to pressure smaller ethnic groups into signing a ceasefire acceptable to the army, and demolish the prospects of any NLD-ethnic alliance by demonstrating that the Tatmadaw is the only entity capable of delivering peace,” the analysis reads.

“This would then bolster military Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing’s own presidential ambitions.”

The other two possible presidential candidates, IHS said, are parliamentary Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann and NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The military’s hardening is an indication that the Tatmadaw is against any further political liberalization, IHS said.

“The military’s changing stance is likely motivated by fears that continued negotiations will lead to the executive signing a national ceasefire agreement unacceptable to the military, and would further buttress an NLD-ethnic alliance. The NLD and the ethnic insurgents favor amending the 2008 Constitution and the formation of a federal union, both of which the Tatmadaw oppose because it wants to preserve the status quo guaranteed under the current Constitution.”

The IHS warning about the possibility of a blunting of economic growth and renewed sanctions also comes as the US government blacklists one of Burma’s biggest and most influential businessmen.

Aung Thaung, who is also a lawmaker representing the military-backed USDP, was placed on a Washington Treasury Department restriction list for actively seeking to undermine positive economic change in Burma.

The department did not specify what in particular Aung Thaung had done, but the blacklisting freezes his assets in US-connected banks and bars him from doing business with American firms.

“The latest US sanctions on a [Burma] lawmaker highlight the conundrum for companies looking to bring Western investment to the country: More names are going on the blacklist than coming off,” the Wall Street Journal said. “The move represents the first time the US has placed a senior Burmese official on the blacklist since it began lifting sanctions in 2012.”

Aung Thaung and his family control several major Burmese firms, notably IGE Company Limited, which is engaged in a wide range of trading and construction, including contracts to build hydroelectric dams.

IGE is involved in the construction of the Yeywa hydro plant, in Mandalay Division, in partnership with the China Gezhouba Group Corporation.

IGE has also moved into the oil and gas support services and pipeline construction sector in anticipation of a rise in demand when work begins on more than 20 recently awarded onshore and offshore blocks—some of which went to American oil companies.

“The new sanctions highlight the obstacles to Western firms seeking to do business in [Burma],” said the Journal, “but while US diplomats are actively encouraging [Burma] businessmen to apply to be taken off the blacklist, few of the 100 or so names have so far been removed.

“No names were taken off the blacklist in 2014 and only one was removed in 2013, while several were added, according to public records.”

Your Thoughts …
William Boot

William Boot

Similar Picks:

Exodus: Tens of Thousands Flee as Myanmar Junta Troops Face Last Stand in Kokang
Burma

Exodus: Tens of Thousands Flee as Myanmar Junta Troops Face Last Stand in Kokang

by Hein Htoo Zan
November 28, 2023
98.4k

Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army troops are opening roads and pathways through forests for people to flee Kokang’s capital as...

Read moreDetails
Burning Alive in Myanmar: Two Resistance Fighters Executed in Public
Burma

Burning Alive in Myanmar: Two Resistance Fighters Executed in Public

by The Irrawaddy
February 7, 2024
89.7k

People’s Defense Force says junta troops told every household in the village to send one member to witness the double...

Read moreDetails
Another Entire Junta Battalion Raises the White Flag in Myanmar’s Northern Shan State
War Against the Junta

Another Entire Junta Battalion Raises the White Flag in Myanmar’s Northern Shan State

by The Irrawaddy
November 29, 2023
87.1k

Brotherhood Alliance member says it now has complete control of Kokang’s northernmost section after the junta’s Light Infantry Battalion 125...

Read moreDetails
Depleted Myanmar Military Urges Deserters to Return to Barracks
Burma

Depleted Myanmar Military Urges Deserters to Return to Barracks

by The Irrawaddy
December 4, 2023
59k

The junta said deserters would not be punished for minor crimes, highlighting the military’s shortage of troops as resistance offensives...

Read moreDetails
As Myanmar’s Military Stumbles, a Top General’s Dissapearance Fuels Intrigue
Burma

As Myanmar’s Military Stumbles, a Top General’s Dissapearance Fuels Intrigue

by The Irrawaddy
April 19, 2024
46.9k

The junta’s No. 2 has not been seen in public since April 3, sparking rumors that he was either gravely...

Read moreDetails
Enter the Dragon, Exit the Junta: Myanmar’s Brotherhood Alliance makes Chinese New Year Vow
Burma

Enter the Dragon, Exit the Junta: Myanmar’s Brotherhood Alliance makes Chinese New Year Vow

by The Irrawaddy
February 12, 2024
44.7k

Ethnic armed grouping says it will continue Operation 1027 offensive until goal of ousting the junta is achieved. 

Read moreDetails
Load More
Next Post
What Do People Expect From President Obama’s Burma Visit?

What Do People Expect From President Obama’s Burma Visit?

Asia Inc. Leads West in Business in Burma

Asia Inc. Leads West in Business in Burma

No Result
View All Result

Recommended

Myanmar Regime Leader Rejects World Bank Economic Forecast as Inaccurate

Myanmar Regime Leader Rejects World Bank Economic Forecast as Inaccurate

4 days ago
1.4k
From Foreign Policy Drift to Diplomatic Freefall in Myanmar

From Foreign Policy Drift to Diplomatic Freefall in Myanmar

7 days ago
2.1k

Most Read

  • Myanmar Junta Starves Last Rakhine Strongholds as AA Closes In

    Myanmar Junta Starves Last Rakhine Strongholds as AA Closes In

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Myanmar’s Strongest Armed Ethnic Alliance is Faltering

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Myanmar’s Civilian Govt Rebuffs Junta’s Appeal for ‘Cooperation’

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • TNLA Defies Myanmar Junta Push to Cede Shan Towns in China Talks  

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Thirteen Myanmar junta aircraft shot down since coup

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Newsletter

Get The Irrawaddy’s latest news, analyses and opinion pieces on Myanmar in your inbox.

Subscribe here for daily updates.

Contents

  • News
  • Politics
  • War Against the Junta
  • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
  • Conflicts In Numbers
  • Junta Crony
  • Ethnic Issues
  • Asia
  • World
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Election 2020
  • Elections in History
  • Cartoons
  • Features
  • Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Commentary
  • Guest Column
  • Analysis
  • Letters
  • In Person
  • Interview
  • Profile
  • Dateline
  • Specials
  • Myanmar Diary
  • Women & Gender
  • Places in History
  • On This Day
  • From the Archive
  • Myanmar & COVID-19
  • Intelligence
  • Myanmar-China Watch
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Food
  • Fashion & Design
  • Videos
  • Photos
  • Photo Essay
  • Donation

About The Irrawaddy

Founded in 1993 by a group of Myanmar journalists living in exile in Thailand, The Irrawaddy is a leading source of reliable news, information, and analysis on Burma/Myanmar and the Southeast Asian region. From its inception, The Irrawaddy has been an independent news media group, unaffiliated with any political party, organization or government. We believe that media must be free and independent and we strive to preserve press freedom.

  • Copyright
  • Code of Ethics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Team
  • About Us
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • Burmese

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Business
    • Economy
    • Business Roundup
  • Books
  • Donation

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.