China is gearing up to mark the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), its vast international infrastructure scheme and brainchild of President Xi Jinping, next month. It claims to have confirmed the participation of leaders from over 110 countries in the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in Beijing.
Myanmar is among the 150 BRI member countries. When the second forum was held in 2019,
the country’s then leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi—whose National League for Democracy (NLD) government was ousted by the Myanmar military in 2021, and who has been detained since then—was invited to the forum and attended a high-level meeting, delivering a speech entitled “Belt and Road Cooperation: Shaping a Brighter Shared Future.”
So, at the third forum in October, whom from Myanmar will Beijing invite?
Since grabbing power in 2021, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has been running the country under military rule, appointing himself prime minister. Most Western countries have denounced his regime as illegitimate and condemned its killings of opponents and innocent civilians. Even within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Myanmar is a member, he is considered a black sheep. Under the circumstances, it will be interesting to see whether Beijing includes him in its list of dignitaries invited to the forum.
The Irrawaddy has learned that senior representatives of the junta and its governing State Administration Council have been lobbying Beijing for months to secure an invitation for Min Aung Hlaing. Badly in need of legitimacy abroad and respect at home, the regime sees the forum as a major public relations opportunity. When Russian President Vladimir Putin met the junta boss last year, the regime’s mouthpiece media went into a frenzy, publishing a stream of propaganda pieces and pictures of Min Aung Hlaing’s “great achievement.”
Furthermore, despite Beijing’s warming ties with Naypyitaw, Min Aung Hlaing has yet to be invited to China since the coup, and previous requests to visit were rejected. Observers believe the junta is desperate not to miss this opportunity.
Nonetheless, his chances of being invited to the BRI forum are very thin, they say.
Jason Tower, Myanmar country director at the United States Institute of Peace, said the Chinese government is frustrated at the regime’s lack of progress on advancing the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a component of the BRI in Myanmar, and its unwillingness to crack down on criminal activity, especially cyber scams, which the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs says have “seriously harmed Chinese interests.”
Furthermore, he added, fighting between the regime’s troops and anti-regime resistance groups and their allied ethnic armed organizations in northern Shan State and nearby Mandalay Region has made it difficult for the regime to assert control in areas important to Chinese interests?
“Considering how the junta continues to lose control over key trade routes between the China border and major cities like Mandalay and Yangon, and how it has been unable to restart significant mining projects, it seems more likely that the Chinese would limit the junta’s participation to the minister level,” he said, referring to mining projects in anti-regime resistance strongholds in Upper Myanmar.
Risky invitation
There is no doubt that Beijing maintains warm relations with the junta. The latest Chinese dignitary to travel to Naypyitaw was Beijing’s special envoy to Myanmar Deng Xijun, who discussed upgrading relations between the two countries, enhancing biliteral cooperation, and maintaining peace and stability along the Myanmar-China border among other things.
Over the past month, furthermore, at least nine junta ministers have flown to China for meetings. This week, the junta’s construction minister, central bank governor, health minister, and agriculture, livestock and irrigation minister also visited Nanning City and Jiangsu province for China-ASEAN-related meetings and conferences.
Analysts say Beijing has adopted a policy of cautious engagement with the junta, politically distancing itself but maintaining a certain level of contact for the sake of its economic interests.
This relationship notwithstanding, taking the extra step of inviting Min Aung Hlaing to the BRI Forum would be wading into difficult waters for Beijing, as his participation would likely incur significant costs.
Given his atrocities, war crimes and genocide against his own people, countries across Southeast Asia, Europe, Africa and beyond might potentially downgrade their participation in the forum to avoid putting their leaders in the uncomfortable position of having to cross paths with Min Aung Hlaing.
Tower pointed out that handing an invitation to Myanmar junta would also be awkward for Beijing given the junta’s deep involvement in the transnational criminal activity that China claims to “detest” and demands that Myanmar crackdown on.
The Myanmar junta is known to be turning a blind eye to transborder crime involving human trafficking and cyber-scam syndicates largely run by Chinese criminals along Myanmar’s borders with China and Thailand. Beijing has been pressuring the regime to crack down on them. In response, the regime in August handed over to Chinese authorities 24 people arrested for involvement in online scams. However, the syndicates along the Thai border remain intact as they are protected by regime-friendly ethnic Border Guard Force groups.
“An invitation to Min Aung Hlaing would also risk sending a signal that China is not taking the global security crisis caused by transnational criminal groups in Myanmar seriously,” Tower said.
During Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s 2019 attendance at the second BRI Forum, Myanmar signed two memorandums of understanding and an agreement letter with China to strengthen cooperation between the countries on the CMEC, trade and technology.
To China’s dismay, due to the military coup, the CMEC project has been stalled for more than two years, as the regime still does not have control of the country, which has witnessed a nationwide popular armed resistance movement. It’s evident that, were it not for the political instability caused by Min Aung Hlaing’s coup, the project would now be up and running.
Give such losses, Tower said, “The presence of Min Aung Hlaing would also be a clear reminder of how the military’s destructive actions and ongoing war against the Myanmar people have undermined any prospects for success of the agreements that the NLD party made with China on the CMEC.”
