The Brotherhood Alliance has seized at least eight towns and around 150 junta positions since it launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State on October 27.
The Irrawaddy recently met Karen National Union (KNU) spokesman Padoh Saw Taw Nee to discuss how Karen forces will respond to Operation 1027.
What is your view on Operation 1027?
The popular revolt has gained momentum since Operation 1027 was launched. This indicates the end of the military regime. In every place, the regime suffers defeats and has lost much territory. Junta soldiers are demoralized and easily surrender. The regime has lost territory and trade routes, which has built revolutionary strength.
The regime has quickly lost many positions and strategically important towns. How are its armed forces performing?
The military’s combat capability has noticeably declined since the 2021 coup. By September we had recorded 11,608 clashes between our forces and the junta since the coup. We have killed around 10,741 troops and injured 7,779, so 18,520 in total.
How can they make up for these heavy casualties and continue to fight?
When fresh clashes broke up in northern Shan State, it lost many battles. Normally, the regime would respond immediately and send reinforcements but it had no one available.
We estimate a junta division can only deploy about 700 soldiers for combat. They suffered around 18,520 casualties in our territory, which is equal to 26 divisions. So there are no reinforcements available for northern Shan State to retake the towns they have lost. And they also can’t recruit.
They are using personnel from combat support units and even firefighters. The combat capability of the regime has collapsed.
There has been fierce fighting along the Sittaung River basin in Bago Region near Naypyitaw but why have there been few attacks to the south?
We are still operating but we can’t attack yet. It needs careful preparation and we are still preparing.
The Brotherhood Alliance has urged revolutionary organizations to join Operation 1027. Does the KNU have an attack plan?
We have fought heavily since the 2021 coup with over 10,000 clashes and the regime has suffered over 18,500 casualties. It is not a small number. We have always called for coordinated attacks but few groups joined us. Operation 1027 is encouraging. We seized the Chaung Hnakwa bridge [in Kyaikmayaw, Mon State] a few days ago. Many junta soldiers have surrendered. We are continuing with other operations.
Why have some KNU units not joined the fighting?
We have seven brigades and all of them are fighting. We don’t need to say how they are fighting. This is a military issue.
When will the regime collapse?
Soon, depending on how effectively the attacks are coordinated across the country. The military is doomed.
What could the regime try to survive?
The regime will try again to sow discord among revolutionary organizations as it has always done. It is no longer effective. It cannot fight on all fronts. Revolutionary organizations are attacking from all directions. The attempts to divide do not work anymore.
But we need to be careful. It might seek to divert attention by holding talks or negotiating with popular individuals.
We must resist the regime’s ploys.
We don’t reject dialogue that is suggested by the international community but first the military must promise to leave politics.
The military must be transformed under a civilian federal government’s control and it must accept transitional justice. It must accept responsibility for its crimes. There must be no impunity.
The generals must accept a federal, democratic constitution that establishes a new union.
We will need a dialogue even after the regime collapses, with international participation.
If the regime accepts these demands, we can start talks. A turning point is possible.
But for that to happen, we need to pressure the regime on the military, political and diplomatic fronts with economic sanctions and public campaigns.
This can bring the changes we expect.
What is your message to the international community, including the UN and ASEAN?
When we launched the revolution, the international community predicted that we would not last five months before we fell.
The regime said the same. But the reverse has happened. Our revolution has grown stronger with an unprecedented level of public support.
The revolution has gained momentum, seizing whole towns. The international community should change its view that only the military can ensure stability in the country.
More than 2 million civilians have been displaced by the regime’s terror campaign. They need humanitarian assistance, which the international community should deliver without delay.
We are not just focusing on regime change. We need to rebuild the country through comprehensive reforms and changing the system. The international community must cooperate for that to happen.
