Myanmar’s 6.8 percent drop in total trade during the first one and a half months of this fiscal year was likely caused by plummeting trade at official border posts, which handled 48 percent less trade during the period than they did in the same period last year, figures released on Friday by the junta’s commerce ministry show.
Myanmar’s total imports and exports fell by 6.8 percent year-on-year to US$3.53 billion in the first one and half months of the current fiscal year from US$3.79 billion in the same period last year. The value of imports totaled US$1.77 billion and exports totaled US$1.76 billion, the ministry’s figures show.
Trade at official border posts saw a massive plunge from April 1 to May 17. It totaled just US$684 million this year, compared to US$1.013 billion last year, the ministry’s figures show.
The main reason for the massive decline was the closure of trade posts on the border with China due to conflict, traders said. However, even in areas where border trade posts remain open, the routes leading to them are no longer safe, traders said.
Both importers and exporters in Myanmar say the risk of trading across borders has surged. Moreover, importers in China are more reluctant to purchase good from Myanmar, like farm produce, because they cannot be certain it will be delivered, exporters say. Besides the risk of conflict interrupting trade, importers in Myanmar say costs have also risen, and Myanmar consumers have less spending power.
Myanmar has five official border trade posts with China. One, in Chinshwehaw town, was seized by the Brotherhood Alliance at the beginning of Operation 1027 in October last year, when the alliance began steamrolling over junta military bases in northern Shan State.
The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, an alliance member, reopened Chin Saw Haw trade post in March, but there was no trade from either side of the border.
Data from the commerce ministry showed no export or import data for Chin Saw Haw trade post during the period.
Another trade post on the border with China, Lwegel in Kachin State, was captured by the Kachin Independence Army and its allies on April 1. According to the figures from the commerce ministry, Myanmar imported US$1.2 million during the 47-day period but exported nothing through Lwegel.
In the same period in 2023, the Lwegel border post handled US$13 million worth of trade, while Chin Saw Haw handled US$ 99 million of trade.
In western Myanmar, both Sittwe and Maungdaw are categorized as border trade posts with Bangladesh. Although Sittwe is a port, historically it has been classified as a border trade post because the trade it handles is almost entirely with Bangladesh. From April 1 to May 17, no trade occurred at either border post due to the escalating war between the Arakan Army and the junta’s military. In the same period in 2023, both border posts handled about US$1 million in trade each.
In the east, Myanmar has six official trade posts on the Thai border. A slight decrease was seen in the April 1 to May 17 period this year, compared with the same period last year at Tarchileik, Kawthaung, Myeik and Mawtaung border trade posts.
Trade with Thailand through the Myawaddy border post fell by US$165 million, while trade at Htee Khee post fell by US$55 million due to the war in Karen State.
Exporters and importers say the volume of trade with China, Thailand and Bangladesh began falling after the February 2021 coup, but initially gradual decline accelerated after the launch of Operation 1027 and the resumption of conflict in Rakhine State.
“At this moment, we are still having to arrange to import the goods produced by China through alternative routes in Thailand,” said an importer of goods and material from China.
Other importers agreed, saying they send cargo trucks into Thailand to pick up imports from China and that they usually import them into Myanmar through Myawaddy, which is located opposite Mae Sot, in Thailand’s Tak province.
Sometimes, they import Chinese goods and materials via boat from Ranong in Thailand to Kawthaung in Myanmar, they said. Both alternative routes are costly and unstable due to conflicts with ethnic armies along the border with Thailand, traders say. Higher logistics costs push up prices for consumers and fuel inflation, traders say.
