The situation inside Myanmar remains fast-changing and unpredictable, leaving the Srettha government having to recalibrate its policies towards our strife-torn neighbor.
Regardless of long-standing ties, both countries have national priorities that sometimes do not align with the other, but they still need to work together to ensure their national survival.
Within it all, they must also seek common solutions, especially on matters related to cross-border challenges, including engagement with armed ethnic groups, asylum seekers, humanitarian assistance, arms trafficking, cybercrime and drugs.
Now, Thailand is bracing for a possible influx of Myanmar asylum seekers as the State Administration Council (SAC) begins enforcing its compulsory military conscription.
When the SAC mandated the draft law last month, long queues formed at the Thai Embassy in Myanmar.
Other regional embassies, such as Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, also faced a dramatic increase in visa applications from Myanmar passport holders to enter their countries.
Given the long frontier with Thailand, displaced persons from Myanmar’s conflicts and other circumstances have been seeking sanctuary and safety across the land border for several decades.
According to the 2014 national census, the military draft will affect 14 million youths of Myanmar’s 52 million population ranging in age from 18 to 30. There are 6.3 million males aged between 18 and 30 and 7.7 million females aged between 18 and 27 who are required to serve for two-year military service, according to the conscription law.
In case they refuse, they could face up to five years’ imprisonment.
Major General Zaw Min Tun, the junta’s spokesperson, did not mince words, stating that beginning in April, about 5,000 youths will be drafted monthly.
It is an open secret that this young generation does not want to associate with the Tatmadaw (Myanmar’s military), let alone join the army. For them, the only way out is to leave the country by whatever means possible.
Meanwhile, Thai provincial authorities along the porous Thai-Myanmar border have been urged to be vigilant. Except for a 53-km portion, the 2,401-km frontier has never been demarcated.
Along the lengthy border, there are only six cross-border checkpoints and a number of natural channels. The most frequent entry points are at Phob Phra district in Tak province as well as Mae Sariang and Muang Mae Hong Son districts in Mae Hong Son province.
The Thai authorities should follow international law and humanitarian principles in their treatment of new arrivals.
Thailand is bidding for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council for 2025-27. The decision will be made in October.
A recent assessment by Thai security-related agencies puts the possible number of new arrivals this year at around 60,000-80,000 in a worst-case scenario. These numbers would significantly increase the current number of Myanmar people crossing into Thailand due to the ongoing fighting and the worsening economic and social conditions in their country.
At the last count, Thailand had prepared 123 temporary shelters along the border that can accommodate up to 80,000 people.
In a related development, a Thai-Myanmar bilateral agreement to provide humanitarian assistance to 20,000 displaced villagers inside Myanmar will start on March 25 through Red Cross societies across the border at the Thai-Myanmar Bridge No.2, linking Mae Sot and Myawaddy.
Representatives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management (AHA Centre) will monitor aid distribution to ensure credibility, transparency, and full access to all affected villagers.
The humanitarian aid handover ceremony will also be witnessed by Bangkok-based ASEAN diplomats and Alounkeo Kittikhoun, the ASEAN special envoy on Myanmar for the Lao chair.
Lest we forget, there are, at present, 80,000 Myanmar displaced persons who have been living in Thailand for the past four decades in nine camps in western provinces—Tak, Kanchanaburi, Ratchaburi, and Mae Hong Son. The Thai government and a consortium of international funders have assisted these people for the past 40 years under UN-sponsored programs, which have also involved resettlement in third countries. Today, these programs have now ended.
To lessen the government’s burden, it is time these displaced persons be given some form of permanent residency, if not citizenship so that they can work freely and live normal lives like others. As such, they can contribute to Thailand’s economy and development.
Since the Brotherhood Alliance, a military coalition composed of three ethnic armed organizations in Myanmar, began its Operation 1027 late last year, the Thai security apparatus has been rethinking the country’s strategies for the best ways to respond to the deteriorating security situation inside Myanmar.
The anti-junta forces are making headway in areas adjacent to Thailand, India, China and Bangladesh. The fighting in Myanmar’s Magwe region and Kayah State is also ongoing in a manner that could determine whether the military regime will be able to stay on.
In the meantime, the Srettha government has openly increased dialogue with all stakeholders, much to the chagrin of the SAC. Such recalibrations of Thai policy are necessary to respond to domestic developments and pressures.
Early this month, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin designated the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to coordinate and cooperate with other ministries and agencies to carry out both humanitarian assistance and Myanmar’s peace process.
A bilateral humanitarian plan will also serve as a litmus test of whether Thailand and ASEAN colleagues, including the SAC and other stakeholders, can push the ASEAN five-point consensus forward. For the SAC, it is also a good opportunity to show goodwill and further engage with ASEAN colleagues and other entities in implementing the five-point consensus.
Meanwhile, convergences of domestic and international geopolitical factors have enabled all stakeholders in Myanmar to begin engagement despite ongoing fighting. In local parlance, it is the “fight-fight, talk-talk” strategy.
The low-hanging fruit is a humanitarian assistance plan helping the affected villagers. Thailand hopes the pilot project will prove successful and it can be scaled up to cover new areas in Mae Hong Son which will involve broader regional and international stakeholders such as UN special agencies and dialogue partners.
More than the conflicting partners would like to admit, none of them have any desire to see the crisis in Myanmar evolve into a proxy war. It is a lose-lose proposition. They have seen vivid examples from the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Gaza Strip. To avoid such dire straits, they must increase their engagement.
For Thailand, the stakes are high. The country’s border security will be seriously compromised if the crisis persists. It will also affect food and energy security within the country. In addition, Bangkok does not want to see its territory used openly or secretly to fuel a civil war.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.
This article first appeared in The Bangkok Post.
