• Burmese
Saturday, July 12, 2025
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Irrawaddy
25 °c
Yangon
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
No Result
View All Result
The Irrawaddy
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion Commentary

Myanmar’s Political Drama – What Episode Are You Watching Now?

Aung Zaw by Aung Zaw
January 29, 2021
in Commentary
Reading Time: 6 mins read
0 0
A A
Trump supporters outside Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021. / Flickr

Trump supporters outside Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021. / Flickr

11.9k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Late on the evening of March 1, 1962, General Ne Win was among the honored guests at a Chinese ballet performance in Yangon. The general enjoyed a drink as he took in the show. Guests recalled seeing the general and his bodyguards return home soon after the performance ended.

But this relaxed scene was a façade. In the early hours of March 2, troops dispatched by the general arrived at the residences of government leaders and detained them. At 8:50 a.m. he went on the air to announced a military takeover of the government. Not even Ne Win’s close subordinates—including Brigadier General Aung Gyi, who would become the No. 2 in the Revolutionary Council formed shortly after the coup—had prior knowledge of the power grab.

The current rumors that a coup is imminent in Myanmar and the rising political tensions are troubling, but let’s hope the generals aren’t planning to go that far. They will surely think twice before they do anything to drag the country back to the stone age. They would only be digging their own graves.

RelatedPosts

Myanmar Junta Deploying Conscripts in Major Push to Reclaim Lost Territory

Myanmar Junta Deploying Conscripts in Major Push to Reclaim Lost Territory

July 10, 2025
2.1k
Myanmar People Skeptical of Junta’s Promises of Election, Peace

Myanmar People Skeptical of Junta’s Promises of Election, Peace

July 7, 2025
1k
Myanmar’s Civilian Govt Rebuffs Junta’s Appeal for ‘Cooperation’

Myanmar’s Civilian Govt Rebuffs Junta’s Appeal for ‘Cooperation’

July 7, 2025
1.1k

Putting aside rumors, and looking beyond the headlines we consume daily in newspapers and online, including in this publication, a levelheaded senior military officer told me this week that if the military was planning a coup, they would never signal it in advance. Understood.

Nonetheless, as a foreign friend who worked in Myanmar for decades put it, Myanmar (or Burma) is never predictable; watching the country’s political drama unfold, one must expect the unexpected.

The expat, who now lives outside Myanmar, said to me: “It is painful to watch this drama—the suspense is killing me.” But I believe every crisis presents opportunities, and I hope the same will be true of this saga.

In a statement, Western embassies in Yangon affirmed their “support for Myanmar’s democratic transition and efforts to promote peace, human rights and development in the country.”

Current Myanmar military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing attends the Armed Forces Day parade in Naypyitaw in 2017. / The Irrawaddy

They continued, “We look forward to the peaceful convening of the Parliament on February 1 and the election of the President and speakers,” adding, “We oppose any attempt to alter the outcome of the elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition.” The statement reflects the aspirations of the majority of Myanmar’s people.

One ironic consequence of the military’s threatening posture is that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will only receive moral support and sympathy from the public at home and abroad; her status and the ruling party’s image will be elevated without her having to lift a finger.

A business tycoon who in the past worked with the military regime—and enriched himself in the process—this morning summed up his feelings in one word “outrage”. He said he was disgusted watching the political events unfold in Myanmar. “It is ugly and I have nothing much to say,” he said before hanging up the phone. One can see his point of view.

Last night, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi reportedly held a series of meetings with party loyalists at her residence to discuss the crisis.

A levelheaded senior military officer told me this week that if the military was planning a coup, they would never signal it in advance.

She is said to have shared her objections to the military’s demands—for a vote recount, the postponement of the coming Parliament session from Feb. 1, and the abolition of the Union Election Commission—and to have discussed possible scenarios for dealing with the unfolding situation.

But this is a woman who spent years under house arrest and in detention, survived violent attacks by thuggish mobs when traveling in the countryside, and endured public humiliation. Today, she is the leader of the country. One would assume that at 75 the State Counselor would be calm and patient. But let’s think positively. Even by the time she went to bed last night she must have been silently thanking her adversaries in the military, or whoever it might be, as they have somehow managed to make her and her party sympathetic figures once again. Over the decades, she has had no shortage of enemies who inadvertently promoted her cause and her status at home and abroad. She should be sending flowers to them in gratitude.

At 6 a.m. this morning, a friend sent me a chat message expressing concern that a coup would only make life more difficult for people who are already experiencing economic hardship and poverty, while struggling with the effects of the pandemic.

My friend is not a journalist—just an informed citizen sharing his speculations. He wanted to talk about how Myanmar’s neighbors and allies would respond in case of a coup: “Russia will win if there is a coup. The army plans to buy more hardware from Russia.”

I said, “Russia doesn’t care.”

He wrote: “China will lose….”

And… “Business owners are going to lose.”

Followed by… “Crony businessmen and their kids would suffer from a coup.”

Then… “Myanmar will become an unstable partner in the BRI,” (referring to China’s massive infrastructure development plan, the Belt and Road Initiative).

The Myanmar Armed Forces Day parade in 2018. / The Irrawaddy

This month, Myanmar received high-level visits from China, Russia and Japan – all three are Myanmar-friendly governments. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was here to sign agreements on the economy, trade and technical cooperation with the aim of speeding up the implementation of BRI projects in Myanmar. Russia came to sell military hardware but nothing else. “But did Russia embolden the generals?” my friend quizzed me.

I replied that not even China, Myanmar’s giant neighbor and key ally, would accept a coup. However, my friend said, despite its desire to see stable leadership in Myanmar, Beijing will put its own interests first at the end of the day. I had to agree.

Then my friend turned the discussion to social media, where many netizens were expressing opposition to the military’s interference in politics amid the rumors of an impending coup.

He was worried that there would be a crackdown on telecom infrastructure and social media, or even a temporary shutdown of internet access, such as was recently imposed in Chin and Rakhine states.

“People will revolt,” he wrote. “They may not revolt for democracy. But people will revolt if their mobile phones are taken away from them.” In the meantime, the NLD isn’t taking any chances with their communication devices; top party leaders have reportedly instructed MPs to deactivate their SIM cards in a preemptive measure in case they are arrested, and to erase any sensitive data from their devices.

One ironic consequence of the military’s threatening posture is that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will only receive moral support and sympathy from the public at home and abroad.

I told my friend to calm down. I know that many military officers and their families are addicted to social media and Facebook. If the internet were shut down, they would be the ones to revolt, let alone the civilian population!

To comfort my colleague, I shared a rumor concerning former regime leader Senior General Than Shwe.

Now in his late 80s, when not engaging in his hobby of palm reading, it is said that the once paramount leader enjoys surfing Facebook every day. “Then we are safe,” my colleague said. “If he likes Facebook, it won’t shut down!” I joked that the once powerful regime leader still monitors events from behind the throne and continues to pull strings via Facebook (we’re lucky that he doesn’t share Donald Trump’s tweeting addiction), so we’re safe.

In its modern history, Myanmar has seen three military coups. These occurred in the pre-smartphone, pre-social media era, in 1958, 1962 and 1988.

The generals then were fortunate; to control the population, all they had to do was send a convoy of military vehicles into the national broadcasting station, where soldiers pointed guns at a newscaster and told him to read out a statement announcing the military’s takeover. Indeed, this is one of the most dramatic memories for those who lived through the 1988 upheaval.

Nowadays, I told my friend over messenger, staging a coup could be problematic – first, you’d have to take over social media or shut down the internet.

If not, you’d first face the problem of convincing the public that a coup had indeed taken place and that it wasn’t fake news—no easy task. Your second immediate problem would be controlling information and news of counter-coups and mutinies on social media.

This sounds like an awful lot of work if you are in military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s shoes, I teased my friend. It would be the officers and their family members that would most resent and protest the coup!

Despite the talk of a possible coup in the coming days, a military leader assured me that the senior general “doesn’t want to do it.” Ne Win, who introduced the “Burmese way to socialism” and brought self-imposed isolation on the country, later told his colleagues that he regretted the coup he staged in 1962, but added that once you take hold of a tiger’s tail, you can’t let go.

Some leaders are delusional, I told my friend; idiotically, they think they have the capability to run the country again. “It would be like digging their own grave.”

The expat messaged back: “It’s like a 10-part TV political drama series, and I’m up to episode 7 and have no idea what’s going to happen.” He added, “In Burma, the level of pride level is very high. The level of logic is… well… low.”

He concluded: “But almost 50 million lives depend on what happens in episode 7…”

TO BE CONTINUED.

You may also like these stories:

A Military Coup in Myanmar Is Unlikely, But….

The Strange Birds Behind the ’88 Coup

Myanmar Military Refuses to Rule Out Coup as It Presses Claim of Fraud in Nov. Election

Meeting Between Myanmar Govt, Military Fails to Resolve Crisis Over Election

Myanmar’s Political Drama – What Episode Are You Watching Now?

Your Thoughts …
Tags: history FOCUS KEYWORD: CoupLawMilitaryPolitics
Aung Zaw

Aung Zaw

Aung Zaw is the founder and editor-in-chief of The Irrawaddy.

Similar Picks:

AA Urges Myanmar Junta Troops to Surrender as Western Command Burns
War Against the Junta

AA Urges Myanmar Junta Troops to Surrender as Western Command Burns

by The Irrawaddy
December 18, 2024
25.4k

Ethnic army reportedly poised to capture regime’s last stronghold in Rakhine State.

Read moreDetails
Myanmar General in Charge of Shan State Disaster Handed Surprise Promotion
Burma

Myanmar General in Charge of Shan State Disaster Handed Surprise Promotion

by The Irrawaddy
February 5, 2024
24.5k

Naing Naing Oo elevated to Lieutenant-General and made chief of powerful Bureau of Special Operations No. 2, in a reshuffle...

Read moreDetails
Myanmar’s Chief of Eastern Command Purged After Karenni Defeats
Burma

Myanmar’s Chief of Eastern Command Purged After Karenni Defeats

by The Irrawaddy
January 12, 2024
20.1k

Major-General Hla Moe is reportedly the latest junta commander to pay the price for sweeping gains made by resistance forces. 

Read moreDetails
Myanmar Junta Counteroffensives Failing Across Country: Analysts
Analysis

Myanmar Junta Counteroffensives Failing Across Country: Analysts

by Hein Htoo Zan
September 20, 2024
16.8k

Three major operations to retake territory from ethnic armies and their allies are being hampered by troop shortages, experts say.

Read moreDetails
Myanmar Youth Exodus Feared in Wake of Junta’s Conscription Law
Burma

Myanmar Youth Exodus Feared in Wake of Junta’s Conscription Law

by The Irrawaddy
February 15, 2024
15.7k

Activists warn of increased labor rights violations in Thailand and human trafficking as young people flee to avoid mandatory military...

Read moreDetails
Myanmar Junta Orders All Security Personnel to Frontline as Losses Mount in Hard-Hit Regional Commands
Burma

Myanmar Junta Orders All Security Personnel to Frontline as Losses Mount in Hard-Hit Regional Commands

by The Irrawaddy
May 31, 2024
13.5k

Full-time military service order covers soldiers, personnel, police and border guards in eight regional commands.

Read moreDetails
Load More
Next Post
Myanmar military commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing (center) and deputy commander-in-chief Vice Senior General Soe Win (behind the senior general, to the left) attend the 21st-Century Panglong Peace Conference in Naypyitaw in 2018. / The Irrawaddy

Political Ghosts Come Back to Haunt Myanmar

--

The Irrawaddy Business Roundup

No Result
View All Result

Recommended

‘Reforms Are Not Optional’: Prominent Activist Urges NUG to Act Before It’s Too Late

‘Reforms Are Not Optional’: Prominent Activist Urges NUG to Act Before It’s Too Late

3 days ago
1.1k
Trump’s Tariffs to Hit Myanmar’s Garment Manufacturers Hard

Trump’s Tariffs to Hit Myanmar’s Garment Manufacturers Hard

3 days ago
1k

Most Read

  • Myanmar Junta Deploying Conscripts in Major Push to Reclaim Lost Territory

    Myanmar Junta Deploying Conscripts in Major Push to Reclaim Lost Territory

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Myanmar Junta Chief Thanks Trump for Shutting Down VOA and RFA

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Chinese Investment Reshapes Myanmar’s N. Shan as MNDAA Consolidates Power

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • KIA Denies Rumor Chief Under House Arrest in China

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Anti-Coup Icon Explains Urgent Call for NUG Reform

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Newsletter

Get The Irrawaddy’s latest news, analyses and opinion pieces on Myanmar in your inbox.

Subscribe here for daily updates.

Contents

  • News
  • Politics
  • War Against the Junta
  • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
  • Conflicts In Numbers
  • Junta Crony
  • Ethnic Issues
  • Asia
  • World
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Election 2020
  • Elections in History
  • Cartoons
  • Features
  • Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Commentary
  • Guest Column
  • Analysis
  • Letters
  • In Person
  • Interview
  • Profile
  • Dateline
  • Specials
  • Myanmar Diary
  • Women & Gender
  • Places in History
  • On This Day
  • From the Archive
  • Myanmar & COVID-19
  • Intelligence
  • Myanmar-China Watch
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Food
  • Fashion & Design
  • Videos
  • Photos
  • Photo Essay
  • Donation

About The Irrawaddy

Founded in 1993 by a group of Myanmar journalists living in exile in Thailand, The Irrawaddy is a leading source of reliable news, information, and analysis on Burma/Myanmar and the Southeast Asian region. From its inception, The Irrawaddy has been an independent news media group, unaffiliated with any political party, organization or government. We believe that media must be free and independent and we strive to preserve press freedom.

  • Copyright
  • Code of Ethics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Team
  • About Us
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • Burmese

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Business
    • Economy
    • Business Roundup
  • Books
  • Donation

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.