Myanmar Armed Forces Day celebrations in Naypyitaw on Monday featured a ceremony in which regime chief Min Aung Hlaing and his subordinates paid respects to their retired seniors for the second year in a row. Nineteen ex-military generals including the country’s former president, ex-general Thein Sein, joined the event, which observers regarded as a show of support and solidarity for Min Aung Hlaing.
However, notably absent from the ceremony were former dictator Senior General Than Shwe, a key architect of the 2008 military-drafted constitution who ruled the country for almost two decades, and his No 2 and hardcore army chief, Snr Gen Maung Aye. Though now in their late 80s, as godfathers of the previous military regime they were the ones who picked Min Aung Hlaing to be commander-in-chief. According to military protocol, Min Aung Hlaing should visit their residences to pay respect to his former patrons.
Another old-timer missing from the event was notorious former military spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt, who now suffers from Alzheimer’s. Also absent was Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, who briefly served as vice president under Thein Sein.
Ex-General Thura Shwe Mann, an enemy of Min Aung Hlaing, was not there either, probably due to his one-time alliance with now-ousted civilian leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
During the event, U Thein Sein, who was hailed as Myanmar’s Gorbachev in 2011-12 when Myanmar took a political reform U-turn, delivered a speech as Min Aung Hlaing and his generals sat in poses of deep respect.
Seeking support amid rift?
The ceremony was designed to display that Min Aung Hlaing still enjoys the full backing of former generals. More significantly, insiders said, the coup leader was attempting to show his disgruntled soldiers and officers that he retains solid backing from the generals, at a time when his troops are overstretched and under regular attack from resistance forces across the country.
The regime’s infantry units suffered heavy losses in Kayah State just before Armed Forces Day. General Soe Win, deputy leader of the regime, has reportedly complained about the losses.
Rumors now swirling around Naypyitaw and Yangon business circles speak of a growing rift between Ming Aung Hlaing and his army chief Gen Soe Win.
The appointment of several deputy prime ministers in February’s reshuffle was seen as a sign the junta boss was trying to reduce Soe Win’s role.
Gen Soe Win is reportedly unhappy with Min Aung Hlaing’s extension of emergency rule; he also sees no prospect of an election this year. He was the one who ordered the crushing of opposition forces and street demonstrations following the 2021 coup. Min Aung Hlaing gave the green light.
However, Gen Soe Win has also witnessed heavy casualties among infantry soldiers in recent months and is said to be upset with the losses.
On the one hand, Min Aung Hlaing’s reliance on Lt Gen Ye Win Oo – chief of Military Affairs Security – has created tension among top commanders. Ye Win Oo’s heavy-handed attitude and Min Aung Hlaing’s backing of him have upset regional commanders.
At the same time, Lt Gen Ye Win Oo is at loggerheads with the secretary of the regime-governing State Administration Council (SAC), Aung Linn Dwe, who has been sidelined.
Old generals such as Lt Gen Tun Kyi, a hardliner in the 1990s, who once served as Mandalay-based regional commander in 1988, and later became trade minister under the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) junta, are reportedly helping to defuse internal crises within the SAC. Tun Kyi was seen attending the Armed Forces Day ceremony. Min Aung Hlaing visited him to pay respect in Naypyitaw.
