Caught between Beijing and border scams
In its statement on Monday urging the public to help combat scam syndicates in Myanmar, the military regime could have simply urged cooperation in the joint crackdown with China. Instead, eager to prove its sincerity to Beijing, it demanded that the populace “fight scam operations as a national duty.”
A national duty typically involves actions to protect and promote the interests of the country and its people, such as defending against invasion, fighting for national independence, or tackling crises like drug problems and pandemics.
The telecom scam operations are run by Chinese criminal gangs that traffic thousands of people into Myanmar, forcing them to work in border compounds defrauding people from China and other nations. Alarmed by a surge in fraud targeting its citizens amid Myanmar’s post-coup chaos, China began urging cooperation to crack down on the gangs in 2023.
Although the regime has obliged by stating the crackdown is a national duty for citizens, evidence indicates that it is actually protecting the scam syndicates, both in northern Shan State bordering China and Karen State adjacent to Thailand.
The statement – issued shortly after China announced a consensus with ASEAN countries to eradicate the border fraud hubs – was the regime’s latest move to curry favor with its most powerful ally. It also highlighted the junta’s increasing reliance on Beijing to maintain its grip on power.
In its bid to secure Beijing’s continued support, the regime has pushed ahead with Chinese projects in Myanmar conflict zones, granted entry to Chinese security forces to protect those investments, and declared Chinese New Year a public holiday.
Votes for aid?
In yet another irony, the military regime has pledged to provide humanitarian aid to people displaced by fighting, even as it conducts a campaign of indiscriminate air and artillery strikes on displacement camps.
At a Cabinet meeting on Jan. 17, junta boss Min Aung Hlaing declared his regime was compiling lists of displaced people for aid distribution via the natural disaster management fund.
Three days later, junta-controlled newspapers called on eligible people to come forward for aid.
The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports that over 3.5 million people have been displaced by fighting in Myanmar, a five-fold increase from 650,000 before the coup. Sagaing Region has the highest number of internally displaced people, followed by Rakhine State and Magwe Region.
Even if the regime does provide humanitarian assistance for IDPs, gratitude would be inappropriate since the planned assistance depends on public funds.
The general public, however, has greeted the junta’s aid plan with skepticism, pointing to its timing. Many fear the regime will manipulate the displacement census to rig the election it plans to hold later this year. There is also no guarantee that it will not use the displacement lists for conscription purposes.
The junta’s Immigration Ministry is currently busy registering people aged 18-plus to assist the Union Election Commission in compiling voter lists.
Badge of shame
Myanmar’s military has suffered a poor reputation ever since its first coup in 1962, but its latest 2021 putsch and subsequent atrocities have sparked widespread revulsion and hatred among the general public. But when Min Aung Hlaing met military personnel in Taungnyo, Naypyitaw on Wednesday, he declared they should take pride in being the privileged few among the country’s 52 million people with the noble duty of defending the nation.
However, Min Aung Hlaing’s army is not defending the country or its civilians – it is killing them and destroying their property and possessions. Its recruitment crisis and major military defeats on multiple fronts across the country highlight the severe lack of public support. The Conscription Law activated in February last year also faced strong opposition, forcing the regime to snatch people from streets and homes to shore up its depleted army.
Instead of serving the nation and its people, Myanmar’s military is acting as a private army of mercenaries for Min Aung Hlaing. Ashamed of their crimes, its soldiers no longer dare to venture out in public in uniform. Morale has sunk so low that many choose to surrender or flee over the border into neighboring countries when challenged by resistance forces. Others have been captured in their thousands.
If military personnel were held in high esteem, as Min Aung Hlaing claims, he would not have had to activate the Conscription Law and young people would not have reacted by leaving the country en masse.
Seeking a Trump card
While Donald Trump’s “America First” policy has raised concerns among Myanmar citizens that their democracy struggle may fall off Washington’s radar, the diplomatically isolated military regime is eyeing improved relations with the US.
On Thursday, junta spokesman Major-General Zaw Min Tun expressed optimism about the possibility of friendlier ties with the US under Trump’s administration. He told Voice of America (VOA) that the regime places great importance on fostering strong and friendly relations with the US and other countries.
Under President Biden, the US downgraded diplomatic relations with the military regime, imposed sanctions, and passed the Burma Act to provide non-lethal assistance to resistance groups.
It is perhaps not surprising, then, that the generals in Naypyitaw believe Trump’s administration might be more favorable towards them. However, there are doubts regarding Trump’s interest in Southeast Asia, with some analysts suggesting that his administration will pivot away from the region.
Chinese embrace – or chokehold?
On Thursday, junta minister Admiral Tin Aung San attended a Chinese New Year reception at the Inya Lake Hotel in Yangon, where he made a toast with Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia for Pauk-Phaw – or fraternal relations between the two countries.
The PM’s Office minister joined the reception in place of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, who was absent despite attending the event in previous years.
Tin Aung San, who has visited Beijing in his capacity as defense minister, expressed deep gratitude for China’s support of what he called Myanmar’s peace and national reconciliation process. China recently brokered a ceasefire between the regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).
He also voiced appreciation for China’s backing on the regional and international stages, hoping for expanded cooperation in 2025.
Cooperation based on the Pauk-Phaw spirit had bloomed into a comprehensive strategic partnership, he added.
Ma replied that Naypyitaw had shown its regard for the friendship by designating Chinese New Year as a public holiday in Myanmar.
However, Myanmar’s public shows no enthusiasm for China’s ties with the regime.
Beijing is seen as supporting the regime for its own interests, while ignoring the desires and will of the majority in Myanmar. There is also widespread public dismay over Chinese pressure on ethnic armed groups to stop fighting the regime.
Blaming Thais, EAOs as China targets border fraud
Amid Chinese pressure on Myanmar to crack down on border scam operations, the regime has shifted blame to Thailand and ethnic armed groups, while the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) and pro-democracy forces have pledged to cooperate with neighboring countries to combat telecom fraud effectively.
The regime claimed in a lengthy statement on Monday that scam centers along the border operate with electricity and internet supplied from a neighboring country. It said criminal syndicates active near the border also obtain weapons, ammunition and construction materials from the adjacent country, which was not named but is widely understood to be… Read more
Seeking Thai army’s help amid Beijing squeeze
The Myanmar regime’s second-in-command has held talks with a Thai military delegation to discuss a crackdown on border scam operations amid mounting pressure from China.
Soe Win hosted a Thai delegation led by General Direk Bongkarn, head of the Thai Army’s Neighboring Countries Coordination Center, in Naypyitaw on Tuesday.
Also present at the meeting was regime No.3 Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin. Junta media reported the two sides discussed… Read more
Empty gestures for China’s Rakhine projects
Another round of meetings aimed at kickstarting China-backed projects in Rakhine State’s Kyaukphyu took place on Tuesday, following the signing of a China-brokered ceasefire between the military regime and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and China’s reopening of border crossings with MNDAA-controlled areas.
On Tuesday, officials of the regime and China’s state-owned CITIC met in Naypyitaw to discuss the necessary conditions for the implementation of the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) and deep-sea port projects in Rakhine’s Kyaukphyu Township.
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