On Sept. 26, the Myanmar junta’s information team issued an offer to armed resistance groups “to resolve political issues by political means”.
The offer featured three points.
First, the military regime claimed its February 2021 coup aligned with the 2008 Constitution because the National League for Democracy government it ousted had failed to address alleged fraud in the November 2020 election.
Second, the regime claimed that its efforts to hold a multi-party election were being hampered by armed insurgencies that are hindering national development.
Finally, it asked ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), “terrorist insurgent groups and terrorist People’s Defense Force (PDF) groups” to halt “terrorism”, join the party and electoral system, and solve political problems through political means.
Two days later, the junta information team said it had made the offer “to enable relief and rehabilitation efforts in a peaceful and stable environment as many people are suffering from floods; to build national unity amid international problems; and in response to wishes of EAOs, individuals and international organizations that aspire to peace.”
It is important to note that the invitation came not from the State Administration Council, as the junta calls itself, but from its information team, which raises questions about its sincerity.
Regarding the junta’s claim that it took power due to a failure to address voter fraud, Section 402 of the Constitution states the resolutions and actions of the Union Election Commission (UEC) are final and conclusive. The UEC, along with domestic and international observers, validated the 2020 national vote, meaning the fraud claim was just an excuse the military used to stage a coup.
The regime accuses armed resistance groups of resorting to terrorism instead of solving disputes politically. But it was the military that used force to seize power and then impose a deadly crackdown on people staging peaceful protests against the takeover.
Had the military not seized control and turned their guns on citizens demanding the restoration of democracy, organizations like the civilian National Unity Government (NUG), its PDFs, and other Spring Revolution forces would never have emerged.
While the statement urges armed groups to halt “terrorism”, form political parties, and take part in elections, it does not say if the regime is prepared to open talks with armed groups.
The phrase “solve political issues by political means” equates to an instruction to armed groups to surrender their arms, form political parties and stand for election under the 2008 Constitution.
However, anti-regime forces will not accept the junta’s claim that electoral fraud triggered the coup and that armed struggle by the NUG, PDF and ethnic armed organizations has disrupted stability and hindered national development.
The offer merely repeats the previous military regime’s condition for peace talks with armed groups: lay down your arms, become border guard forces or militias, and establish parties to participate in elections.
That one-sided approach and unilateral diktat not only failed to resolve the conflicts, it worsened them. It will yield similar results again this time.
While urging resistance groups to form political parties and join elections, the regime is simultaneously imprisoning leaders of the elected National League for Democracy government. According to a Sept. 27 report by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the regime has arrested 27,463 dissidents, including NLD chiefs, with 20,969 still behind bars.
It has also barred dozens of parties from registering for its planned election, including the Arakan National Party, which won the majority of seats in previous polls in Rakhine State. And with 20,000 political prisoners currently languishing in junta cells, the current environment is hardly conducive for armed groups to form parties and participate in elections.
Another problem lies with the 2008 Constitution. While military supporters see it as a vital link between the military and the people, the majority has lost faith in it.
Political forces in Bamar-majority areas initially mistrusted the military-drafted charter. However, when power was transferred to the NLD after its 2015 election victory, they began to believe that democratic reform could occur within the framework of the 2008 Constitution.
Trust in the Constitution may have been restored had the NLD been allowed five more years in office, per the 2020 election results. However, it evaporated completely when the military seized power in 2021.
Even if Min Aung Hlaing were to be replaced, his successor would still wield almost absolute power under the 2008 constitution.
Ethnic armed groups oppose the constitution because it fails to grant them autonomy over their territories in a federal Myanmar. Thus, it is fair to say that political forces in both the heartlands and border regions of the country no longer accept the 2008 Constitution.
The regime insists it will adhere to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) in its peace talks. However, ethnic armed organizations fighting the regime say the 2021 coup rendered the NCA null and void. In the nine years since it was signed in 2015, the NCA has delivered no results. Thus, it is absurd to believe that Myanmar’s political problems can be resolved under the framework of the 2008 Constitution and NCA.
Also, ethnic armed organizations and PDFs are unlikely to lay down their arms and surrender at a time when they are gaining the upper hand over the regime.
Just hours after issuing the invitation to talks on Sept. 26, the regime bombed the central market in the northern Shan State capital of Lashio, which is controlled by the ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. It has continued its relentless bombardment of towns and villages controlled by ethnic armies in northern Shan and Rakhine State, as well as areas controlled by PDF groups in Mandalay and Sagaing regions.
No one trusts a regime that calls for political solutions while conducting indiscriminate aerial attacks on civilian populations.
The junta’s offer of peace talks is therefore both impractical and dishonest, and has been unanimously snubbed by the NUG, PDFs and other Spring Revolution forces.
If the junta truly aimed to solve political issues by political means, it would cease blaming its opponents and halt indiscriminate attacks on civilians. It must hold unconditional talks with all stakeholders and negotiate a solution acceptable to the majority.
Insisting that armed groups surrender and contest an election under the 2008 Constitution will satisfy no one but pro-military politicians and will only prolong the civil war ravaging Myanmar.
Banyar Aung is a political and ethnic affairs analyst.
