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Home Opinion Guest Column

The Farce of Mediation: Anwar, ASEAN and Myanmar

Igor Blazevic by Igor Blazevic
May 28, 2025
in Guest Column
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The Farce of Mediation: Anwar, ASEAN and Myanmar

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim speaks at the 2nd ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit after the 46th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Kuala Lumpur on May 27, 2025. / AFP

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Behind regional leaders’ hollow statement on an extended and expanded ceasefire in Myanmar, released on Tuesday, and various failed frameworks, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continues to give the junta time, cover and impunity.

Whoever had hoped that Malaysia would do something more — or better — will now finally realize that it won’t happen.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Malaysia will do no better than any previous ASEAN chair.

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They will merely continue repeating the same phrases and making the same pleas, which have delivered nothing so far and will not deliver now.

No, ASEAN will not help solve the crisis in Myanmar. ASEAN will not deescalate the war, nor will it constrain the junta’s terror campaign against the population. ASEAN will not alleviate the humanitarian crisis. ASEAN will not do anything meaningful to enable a path toward a political solution.

ASEAN will continue to give time and free rein to the junta to wage its war against the people — until the people of Myanmar themselves topple this illegitimate, criminal gang in uniform.

ASEAN will remain as toothless and ineffective as it has always been.

Let me make just a few quick comments on the latest ASEAN statement.

“Deep concern” without any effective action is empty talk.

No, ASEAN is not “committed to assisting Myanmar in finding a peaceful and durable solution.” For over four and a half years, ASEAN has stood by as the junta wages war on the people of Myanmar — doing nothing to constrain its capacity for violence. Worse, several ASEAN member states have actively provided resources that have enabled the junta to continue its rampage.

ASEAN has once again repeated its dogmatic commitment to its own “Five-Point Consensus” — the agreement between ASEAN leaders and junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, made in the early months of the coup.

The people of Myanmar and their legitimate representatives were never part of that agreement. They were never asked their position or what they wanted. It was only Min Aung Hlaing making empty promises to ASEAN leaders in hopes of gaining acceptance based on those promises. Min Aung Hlaing has never implemented a single point of the consensus, and ASEAN leaders have never applied any meaningful pressure on the junta to fulfill those promises.

The Five-Point Consensus has had no impact on developments in Myanmar — and ASEAN’s endless, futile insistence on this dead-on-arrival plan only serves to pretend that it still matters.

ASEAN is “urging all parties to immediately cease acts of violence against civilians.” This means only one thing: ASEAN is neither willing nor able to urge and pressure the only party waging — not “acts of violence” — but a full-scale war of terror against the civilian population on a systematic, mass scale.

By calling on “all parties” to cease “acts of violence,” ASEAN is sending the toothless message that the junta may continue its war of aggression and destruction, because neither ASEAN nor anyone else will do anything to stop it.

The junta cannot “exercise utmost restraint and ensure the protection and safety of civilians” when the very essence of its warfare is the intentional and indiscriminate targeting of civilians, schools, hospitals, IDP camps, weddings, and funerals — to sow terror and break the will of the people rejecting its attempted state capture.

It is farcical that ASEAN “appreciates the declaration of three consecutive temporary ceasefires by the authority in Myanmar.”

The junta is not “the authority in Myanmar.” It is a criminal and terrorist gang that attempted to seize the state in February 2021 and has since lost control of more than half the country to a determined, nationwide uprising. The only reason the junta can still pretend to be the “authority” is because ASEAN and Myanmar’s neighbors treat it as such.

The “declaration of three consecutive temporary ceasefires” is nothing more than deliberate disinformation, planted in diplomatic and public spaces by the junta. There has been no ceasefire from the junta’s side since the earthquake. In fact, the junta has escalated indiscriminate terror bombings across the country since the so-called ceasefire declaration. Min Aung Hlaing has ordered his rogue military to launch new offensives in an attempt to retake lost cities and to score symbolic victories — currently in Chin State, northern Shan State and Karenni State.

By “appreciating” the junta’s manipulative disinformation about “temporary ceasefires,” ASEAN is spreading dangerous fake news, concealing the reality: the junta is escalating military operations and terror bombings.

ASEAN is “urging all parties” to “ensure the safe, timely, effective, and transparent delivery of ASEAN humanitarian assistance without discrimination.” At the same time, ASEAN allows the junta to block aid, misuse it, and divert it.

What ASEAN calls “inclusive national dialogue” is actually an effort to give the Myanmar military a path to remain in control of the central government, dominate Myanmar’s politics and economy, and persuade revolutionary forces to accept a soft surrender — where they would be granted limited autonomy over liberated territories and a junior role in politics.

ASEAN “appreciates the continued support from the international community… for ASEAN in the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus.” But what ASEAN calls “support” is, in reality, a deliberate effort by others to leave the hot potato of Myanmar in ASEAN’s hands and to avoid getting involved themselves.

To conclude — as I said at the beginning — ASEAN will not help solve the crisis in Myanmar. ASEAN will continue to give time and free rein to the junta to wage its war on the people — until the people of Myanmar themselves topple this illegitimate, criminal gang in uniform.

ASEAN will remain as toothless and ineffective as ever.

Before his ASEAN chairmanship ends — and before his mediation efforts in Myanmar conclude — Anwar will undoubtedly blame the stubbornness of “all parties” in Myanmar and their unwillingness to accept his sincere peace facilitation and humanitarian intentions.

He will not reflect on the reality: that his and ASEAN’s fundamentally flawed approach has become a key factor enabling the continuation of the junta’s war in Myanmar — a war the junta can only lose, but not before inflicting even more destruction.

Igor Blazevic is a senior adviser at the Prague Civil Society Centre. Between 2011 and 2016, he worked in Myanmar as the head lecturer of the Educational Initiatives Program.

Your Thoughts …
Tags: GeopoliticsMilitaryPeace ProcessSoutheast Asiawar crimes
Igor Blazevic

Igor Blazevic

Igor Blazevic is a senior adviser at the Prague Civil Society Centre. Between 2011 and 2016 he worked in Myanmar as the head lecturer of the Educational Initiatives Program.

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