Who would have thought that the infamous assault by the then State Law and Order Restoration Council, as Myanmar’s military junta was formerly known, on the strongholds of the Karen National Union (KNU) in January 1984 would leave a massive time bomb for Thailand some four decades later? That military operation forced the mass displacement of Karen people and those from other ethnic groups, pushing them to cross the Thai border in search of refuge.
Today, these displaced communities reside in nine refugee camps dotted along the lengthy and porous Thai-Myanmar border. Since Myanmar’s independence, armed conflicts and ethnic tensions have continued unabated, with civilians bearing the brunt of the violence.
Given its long, poorly demarcated border, Thailand has been a natural sanctuary for fleeing Myanmar villagers, particularly in the provinces of Tak, Mae Hong Son, Kanchanaburi and, most recently, Ranong.
Since the military coup in February 2021, the influx of displaced persons into Thailand has sharply increased. These individuals come from diverse backgrounds, including government officials, resistance fighters, students and businesspeople. For technical and legal reasons, the Thai government classifies them as “persons fleeing fighting from Myanmar”, allowing them to reside in so-called “temporary shelters”.
However, Thailand is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention and, therefore, deliberately avoids using the term “refugee” to avoid any legal obligations that might arise under international law.
According to UNHCR, as of 2024, 81,039 refugees lived in these nine shelters along the border. However, Thailand’s Ministry of Interior reports a lower number of 77,811 individuals, while civil society organizations estimate a higher figure of nearly 100,000. The real number could be even greater as villagers continue to cross the border daily, either independently or through human smuggling networks.
Despite residing in Thailand for nearly four decades, these displaced persons are not legally allowed to work under Thai law and remain confined to temporary shelters. Past Thai governments have failed to implement policies for integrating them into Thai society, leaving their legal status unclear.
The most frequently asked question is: What should the Thai government do with these displaced persons?
There is a clear and practical answer: Integrate them into Thai society by transforming the settlements into localized, multi-ethnic and multicultural communities. Policymakers at the highest levels have repeatedly discussed this idea, but it has never resulted in clear policies or decisive action.
The Ministry of Interior and the National Security Council now face a Catch-22 situation. The growing number of displaced Myanmar persons has recently come under intense scrutiny on social media, where public opinion is increasingly hostile. Moreover, authorities fear that national security could be compromised if the number of asylum seekers continues to rise. If the government remains complacent, rising xenophobia among local communities could pose a serious risk, making it harder for the government to make good decisions in the future.
In addition, healthcare is a particularly contentious issue. Many Thai citizens resent the perception that displaced persons receive free healthcare while local communities struggle with medical expenses.
Another significant issue is the lack of accurate data. Provincial authorities frequently misclassify new arrivals, branding them simply as persons fleeing conflict rather than keeping a precise count of the displaced population. This misclassification contributes to policy paralysis and further delays in addressing the crisis.
Of late, the situation has been deteriorating due to a sharp reduction in funding for refugee camps, particularly from the United States. Under the Trump administration, assistance to these camps has been significantly reduced, and funding has not been fully restored. The Burma Consortium, which has been helping the displaced persons since 1984, has already appealed for emergency help on its website.
One urgent priority for the Thai government should be granting long-term residents Thai citizenship. The Prayut government had the opportunity to make this decision in 2018 but failed due to opposition from the Interior Ministry, which argued that it would threaten national security. However, to this day, no clear definition of what constitutes a national security threat in this context has been provided, nor has a concrete list of such risks been outlined.
Today, many of Myanmar’s displaced persons, especially the young generation, have little connection to the current Myanmar government. Many of their families and networks are already in Thailand or have resettled in third countries. They should be allowed to contribute to Thai society and economic development. Some new arrivals are professionals in the engineering and medical sectors, among others. Furthermore, they deserve basic human rights and dignity, which the Thai government frequently claims to uphold.
Thailand’s borders with neighboring countries remain vulnerable due to colonial-era legacies and unresolved ethnic conflicts. The Paetongtarn government must allow these communities to integrate with the rest of Thailand. Of course, the crisis will not end there as numerous challenges await regarding access to education and public services.
Instead of pushing for casinos and other ridiculous projects, this priority could be the new face of the Paetongtarn government. Furthermore, the Thai government must also address the plight of Myanmar’s migrant workers, who now number around 4.5 million. However, bold action is required. Without decisive measures, Thailand is sitting on a ticking time bomb with worsening humanitarian conditions and growing societal tensions that could explode into a much larger crisis.
This article originally appeared in the Bangkok Post.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.
