There are too many simplistic narratives about what is happening in Rakhine, mainly by people who do not live there and hear only stories from friends in their echo chambers. Rakhines and even Bamar, especially outside Myanmar, tend to assume that the Rohingya support the Myanmar junta against the Arakan Army (AA) and the revolution. This is nonsense. I believe most Rohingya support the AA, have no problem with Rakhine people, and have reason to hate the State Administration Council (SAC, the junta’s official name) due to previous experience, especially in 2016-17.
A Rohingya friend said, “The relationship between Rakhine and Rohingyas in Kyauktaw, Mrauk U and Minbya is still strong and united and free of conflict. It will be stronger and more united in the future. The SAC tried to break this unity and create conflict in some towns, but if Rakhine and Rohingya activists focus on rejecting SAC plans on social medias, it will help to improve their strong relationship.”
It is true that some Rohingya in northern Arakan are fighting for the regime against the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) or Arakhan Army, who have terrorized Rohingya both in refugee camps in Bangladesh and in Rakhine itself (in fact, some elements of the ARSA and RSO are also fighting against the regime). These are naturally hated by most Rohingya.
It is also correct that some Rohingya, though not many, did join the regime’s army voluntarily. But a little empathy is in order. If you are an uneducated Rohingya youth who has suffered attacks from all sides, you are not going to be a big supporter of the revolution or feel you are part of it. “What revolution?” one Rohingya youth said to me. Rohingya have been excluded by almost everyone, so where should their loyalty lie? With those who supported the genocide against them or those who stayed silent? The junta offered them national registration cards, food and money, so some joined.
Rohingya leaders and Rohingya commentators should clearly condemn those who fight for the junta. They seem to have been silent on this matter, equating the AA with the regime as common enemies. They are not. The junta is far, far more dangerous to the Rohingya, and Rohingya representatives need to engage the AA in discussion rather than just yelling “genocide” at them. The AA will win in Arakan, and any court decisions on the question of war crimes will take years and then have limited effect on the ground.
Unfortunately, the international community does not seem to be doing anything useful like mediating or working with the AA to supply aid. In fact, some donors insist that NGOs work with the junta, and the perceived wisdom in internal UN communications is very anti-AA. It is this bias of the international community since 2013, which is solely concerned with the plight of the Rohingya, that drives much of the Rakhine grievances.
David Mathieson has written in the Asia Times about how the “Rashomon effect” creates confusion about what is actually happening on the ground in Northern Arakan. “It is possible that multiple realities can exist at the same time: that AA forces can perpetrate atrocities at one location whilst also aiding civilians elsewhere. But observers shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the MAF are committing crimes just like this across Myanmar against multiple communities.” For example, the AA are supporting Rohingya with food and medical aid and helping them get to safe areas while other elements are committing crimes against them.
But despite this confusion, I do not believe that the AA intends to commit genocide against the Rohingya as defined in Article II of the UN Genocide Convention. Genocide includes “any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: (a) killing members of the group; (b) causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group; (c) deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part; (d) imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group; (e) forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.”
I believe that some AA members have committed war crimes and abuses against Rohingya and should be held accountable; but I do not believe there was intent to destroy the Rohingya as an ethnic group. In contrast, the Myanmar military’s intention in 2017 was to commit genocide, even though Myanmar ratified the Genocide Convention in 1956.
If the AA leadership allows the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM) access to investigate and report on the real situation, perhaps fewer people will make judgements based on prejudice, ignorance and what their friends say. The accusations from both sides on social media demonstrate the success of the junta’s psychological warfare unit, which seeks to divide ethnicities and religions.
Know your enemy. It is not the Rohingya, Rakhine or Bamar: it is the Myanmar military.
Paul Greening is an ex-UN senior staff officer with over 20 years of experience in six Asian countries. He worked in Sittwe, Rakhine State for the International Organization for Migration (IOM) from 2017 to 2020.
