Myanmar is in the balance, with anti–junta forces victorious across multiple fronts. For ethnic nations, this is the best opportunity for self-determination since before the Burmese, Japanese and British colonial periods. By supporting legitimate and credible anti–junta forces, the United States and other western powers can aid the struggle for freedom, while limiting the influence of China and Russia.
Continuing fighting on multiple fronts this dry season could be decisive for the country. The State Administrative Council (SAC), which seized power on February 1, 2021, already controls less than half the country. Junta troops are demoralized, and continue losing ground.
Since the launch of Operation 1027 in late 2023, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allied Kokang and other ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) have liberated vast amounts of territory from the junta, including the northern Shan State capital of Lashio. The Palaung State Liberation Front-TNLA is developing a Ta’angland interim constitution in consultation with other ethnic communities. Further to the south, in Karenni State a coalition of armed and civil society groups has established a new model of inclusive, bottom-up governance (the Karenni State Consultative Council).
Meanwhile, the National Unity Government is concentrating its Peoples Defense Forces in the central lowlands, and key EAOs like the Arakan Army (AA) and Karen National Union (KNU) are massing troops for offensive operations, (possibly defensive, along the Asia Highway). In the north, the Kachin Independence Organization continues to make gains, seizing control of globally important rare earth deposits on the China border.
Following unprecedented military success in the southwest, where it has liberated almost all of Arakan (Rakhine) State, the AA is not stopping, but pushing east, closer to Naypyitaw. The AA subscribes to a Confederationist agenda, focusing more on independence and sovereignty than most other EAOs, which are still committed to Federalism. However, even among other EAOs, federalism is understood as an emergent, bottom–up phenomena (rather than imposed from the top-down). Key stakeholders are moving “beyond federalism,” towards claims to sovereignty and independence by ethnic nations, whose longstanding insurgent forces have made very significant gains since the coup.
Political leaders may sometimes be cautious in claiming outright independence, having been long been told by international advisors that such dreams are “not realistic.” Nevertheless, the groups mentioned above are committed to the struggle for freedom and self-determination, and are natural allies to the United States and other western powers. They need urgent support. Aid is needed for over four million conflict–displaced people, including Rohingya and other refugees in neighboring Bangladesh, and in Thailand. Aid is delivered by EAO line-departments and associated agencies — the KNU for example administers a system of over 1,400 schools, and 120 clinics and hospitals — through brave and resourceful community–based organizations operating across the warzones, and by the Free Burma Rangers. In addition to food, medical and education assistance, the key concern is security — including protection from artillery and drone attacks, and from continuing junta airstrikes on civilians, schools and hospitals, churches and monasteries.
In order to continue defeating the SAC, anti–junta forces need direct military support in the form of ammunition and ground–to-air defenses. These can be supplemented by locally produced munitions, if insurgents continue to push into the lowlands, and take control of military production factories.
Meanwhile in northern Myanmar, China is establishing a “protectorate of federated micro–states” governed by a string of powerful EAOs, which often coordinate on political and military issues. Although several are proxies or clients of Beijing, these groups have some autonomy — and would like to hedge against their giant neighbor. Several northern areas have supported the anti-junta movement.
The influence of Chinese criminal gangs is apparent across the country in online scam-centers and casinos, often located in areas controlled by SAC-aligned militias. Anti-junta forces are committed to clearing out these centers of fraud and abuse.
The Myanmar Army is unlikely to collapse entirely, while it continues to receive military support from China and Russia. However, the SAC junta cannot win the war. Rather than focusing on “How to end the war, and who governs Myanmar next?”, a better question is “What comes next?”
The centralized state of Myanmar is increasingly fragmented, and will not regain coherence under any regime, whether military or democratic. It is too late to put ‘Myanmar’ back together again. Disarticulation of the central state will be further driven by the devastating impacts of climate change, which are already felt across much of the country. As temperatures rise, rivers flood and livelihoods collapse, the situation is likely to become even more chaotic and desperate.
Post-coup political arrangements will be asymmetrical, reflecting varying conditions on the ground. A loose alliance — or network — of (confederated) states is emerging, based on the autonomy (de facto sovereignty) of individual units, many of which represent longstanding ethnic nations and indigenous communities. Emergent federalism in the political domain may be paralleled by the development of a long–discussed Federal Army — built from the bottom–up, with individual EAOs and other units retaining autonomy while coordinating for operational purposes.
In this context, western powers should identify likely partners who share a commitment to freedom and human rights, and show care for the communities under their authority. By supporting legitimate and credible anti–junta forces, the United States and other well-wishers can aid the struggle for freedom in Myanmar, while limiting the influence of China and Russia.
Myanmar urgently needs humanitarian aid, air-defenses and military support, in order to survive the conflict and finish off the SAC. This does not have to cost a lot. Communities are resilient, local aid groups are effective, and anti-junta armed forces have already established their credentials.
Ashley South is an independent analyst, and a Research Fellow at Chiang Mai University, specializing in politics and humanitarian issues in Myanmar and Southeast Asia.
