• Burmese
Thursday, June 19, 2025
No Result
View All Result
NEWSLETTER
The Irrawaddy
26 °c
Yangon
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Business
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Junta Watch
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Books
  • Donation
No Result
View All Result
The Irrawaddy
No Result
View All Result
Home Opinion Guest Column

Would a Cyclone Stop the War in Rakhine?

Ye Min Zaw by Ye Min Zaw
June 20, 2019
in Guest Column
Reading Time: 4 mins read
0 0
A A
Storm victims carry aid from a military helicopter in Mrauk-U township, Rakhine State on August 5, 2015. / Reuters

Storm victims carry aid from a military helicopter in Mrauk-U township, Rakhine State on August 5, 2015. / Reuters

5.5k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

When humans cannot find a logical answer to our problems, we tend to look for a solution from mother nature. Myanmar, as a conservative Asian country, has no shortage of supernatural thinking which is deeply rooted in our culture and in the form of worship. Perhaps at this time, we need to hope that a powerful force of nature will take a role in stopping a bloody war that is ongoing in Rakhine State. This time, it might be in the form of a destructive cyclone. Should we expect a cyclone to stop, at least temporarily, a war between two human gangs? It could be the worst form of a ceasefire ever, but it could in fact be a blessing in disguise. It might sound absurd, but this is a call for the leaders who are waging war to think twice before a real cyclone heads towards their people.

As of the end of May, over 30,000 people have been displaced due to fighting between the Arakan Army (AA) and the Tatmadaw, or Myanmar military, in western Myanmar, according to recent UN findings. The newly displaced people are from towns and villages across seven townships, including Palatwa of southern Chin State. Some observers say that the toll of casualties, both civilian and armed persons, has reached 100. The majority of the newly displaced people are living in temporary shelters such as monasteries or in makeshift tents. The government rhetoric has been reassurance to have all internally displaced persons (IDPs) in proper shelter before the monsoon season is in the air. Local community service and humanitarian organizations are overstretching their resources to fulfill the needs of the displaced in the volatile region. However, they frequently face restrictions in delivering aid. The loud calls of local activists and the international community for unfettered humanitarian access has seemingly fallen on dead ears. Consequently, the needs of the IDPs are not adequately fulfilled.

Rakhine State is the most cyclone-prone area in Myanmar. In recent history, regular cyclones have repeatedly affected the state’s population. Cyclone Mora in 2017, though touching down in Bangladesh, flattened hundreds of homes and public services such as schools and hospitals. In 2015, Cyclone Komen displaced 1.7 million across 12 states and regions, with 9 million affected and 172 killed, causing a loss of over 3 percent of GDP for Myanmar. It was no doubt that Rakhine bore the brunt of the damage. Cycle Giri in 2010 was also a major blow that claimed thousands of lives in Rakhine and took many years to recover from. In addition to major natural disasters, the coastal region is also liable to other disasters such as man-made conflict and war.

RelatedPosts

Israel-Iran Conflict: Latest Developments

Israel-Iran Conflict: Latest Developments

June 17, 2025
239
China’s Bet on Myanmar Junta Risks Backfiring

China’s Bet on Myanmar Junta Risks Backfiring

June 17, 2025
1.6k
Tree-Planting Hides Logging Frenzy; Moving Mountains for Steel Production; and More

Tree-Planting Hides Logging Frenzy; Moving Mountains for Steel Production; and More

June 14, 2025
600

A person born in Rakhine is susceptible to more difficulties than a person born in any other area of Myanmar because the state is poor, disaster-prone and has very limited infrastructure. Geographically the people are vulnerable to the force of nature. The low education status and a lack of risk-reduction knowledge makes them even more exposed. On top of that, displacement from conflicts and fighting adds an extraordinary burden on these most vulnerable communities.

Rakhine State has had hundreds of thousands of displaced since communal violence broke out there in 2012. Now, those tallies are driven up by conflict in northern parts of the state. If a major disaster came to the region today, the community would have no capacity for resilience and would have no choice but to appeal for support externally. In general, although there have been some improvements in recent years, disaster preparedness levels in Myanmar remain very low. There are not enough cyclone shelters nor effective disaster response plans at both community or administrative level. Although there are no accurate figures to calculate how much money is needed to prepare for cyclones and disaster risks, it would likely require millions of dollars. In conflict-torn states, people in power use their money for shells and bullets instead of cyclone shelters.

The most recent updates from the battle ground indicate no truce is in the foreseeable future. The Tatmadaw claims they have the upper hand, while the AA have announced there have been many more causalities among Tatmadaw forces. It is also noted there are two differing—even opposing—narratives from the two parties after every event. No hint of a move towards reconciliation has been given.

The Tatmadaw announced a unilateral truce for the first time in December 2018 and have since extended it by two months until the end of June. The truce excludes Rakhine State, apparently because of the threat of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), and this upsets the AA leaders. Unsurprisingly, the war between the two forces has intensified, even causing damage to the historical heritage sites in Mrauk-U. Some local reports say the Tatmadaw is firing heavy artillery shells like rain in any direction where they think the AA might be.

Some local analysts projected that the fighting will slow down with the onset of the monsoon season which usually brings particularly heavy rainfall to Rakhine. Meanwhile, the topography of Rakhine makes it largely inhabitable for major settlements of troops. The AA, however, have already proved to some extent they are capable of living in the Rakhine mountain ranges, particularly in the north close to Chin State.

Though it is possible for fighting to continue under the heavy rains, would it be possible for the AA to continue fighting the Tatmadaw in the event of a cyclone which would require a large-scale response? On the other hand, would the Tatmadaw facilitate a large flow of aid to the area in that scenario?

The real answers to those questions cannot be known until a cyclone lands. But it is critical, however, that they are asked before another disaster falls on the IDPs. We may not be able to blame either side for the conflict, but we must demand a disaster preparation plan for the people. This will unveil their genuine sense of duty beyond the rhetoric of working for the sake of the people. It is time to prepare for the potential of natural disaster. As a catastrophe cannot stop another catastrophe, it is not expected that a cyclone would stop the war. But the war should be stopped in the face of an upcoming disaster. Otherwise, for the displaced in Rakhine, there is nothing they can do but pray for themselves.

Ye Min Zaw studies international development with a focus on peace processes, transitional issues and Rakhine affairs. He is a medical doctor who has worked for many international organizations including UNICEF.

Your Thoughts …
Tags: Ethnic ConflictNatural DisastersRakhineWar
Ye Min Zaw

Ye Min Zaw

Contributor

Similar Picks:

Depleted Myanmar Military Urges Deserters to Return to Barracks
Burma

Depleted Myanmar Military Urges Deserters to Return to Barracks

by The Irrawaddy
December 4, 2023
59k

The junta said deserters would not be punished for minor crimes, highlighting the military’s shortage of troops as resistance offensives...

Read moreDetails
Myanmar Junta Boss Tries to Drive Wedge Between Ethnic Armies, Civilians
Burma

Myanmar Junta Boss Tries to Drive Wedge Between Ethnic Armies, Civilians

by The Irrawaddy
December 5, 2023
24.4k

He trotted out the military’s old ‘three national causes’ rhetoric in a bid to persuade the public the junta is...

Read moreDetails
Battle of Paletwa Loss Turns Tide Against Myanmar Junta on Western Front
Analysis

Battle of Paletwa Loss Turns Tide Against Myanmar Junta on Western Front

by Moe Sett Nyein Chan
January 23, 2024
22k

The military’s demoralized Western Command is feeling the heat as the Arakan Army closes in on towns in northern Rakhine,...

Read moreDetails
Myanmar Junta Continues to Suffer Defeats a Month Into Operation 1027
War Against the Junta

Myanmar Junta Continues to Suffer Defeats a Month Into Operation 1027

by Nayt Thit and Nora
November 27, 2023
18.1k

Unable to reclaim its lost ground, and with fighting escalating on multiple fronts, the regime has been reduced to beefing...

Read moreDetails
Nine Towns in Four Months: the AA’s War in Rakhine
Conflicts In Numbers

Nine Towns in Four Months: the AA’s War in Rakhine

by Hein Htoo Zan
March 13, 2024
14.9k

The Irrawaddy examines the rapid progress made by the Arakan Army since it launched a major offensive against regime forces...

Read moreDetails
The Reasons Myanmar’s Junta Boss Ventured out of His Naypyitaw Refuge
Analysis

The Reasons Myanmar’s Junta Boss Ventured out of His Naypyitaw Refuge

by Maung Kavi
September 13, 2024
14.5k

Desperate to quell discontent within the military, Min Aung Hlaing’s tour of regional commands and stepped up bombing of rebel-held...

Read moreDetails
Load More
Next Post
Local skateboarders celebrate Go Skateboarding Day at Bahan Skate Park in Yangon in June 2018. / Aung Kyaw Htet / The Irrawaddy

Local Skateboard Talent to Gather for Int’l Go Skateboarding Day

Pastor Sum Hkyet Mung, the accused, poses for a picture. / Facebook

Sagaing Region Pastor Charged with Child Rape

No Result
View All Result

Recommended

China is Systematically Dismantling Tibetan Monastic Traditions

China is Systematically Dismantling Tibetan Monastic Traditions

3 days ago
1.6k
China’s Bet on Myanmar Junta Risks Backfiring

China’s Bet on Myanmar Junta Risks Backfiring

2 days ago
1.6k

Most Read

  • On Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s Birthday, Recalling the Cake That Rattled the Junta

    On Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s Birthday, Recalling the Cake That Rattled the Junta

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Bago Resistance Claims 20 Myanmar Junta Personnel Killed

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • Global Campaign Reaches Goal to Honor Aung San Suu Kyi on Her 80th Birthday

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • KIA, Junta Troops Continue Battle for Control of Myanmar’s Jade Hub

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0
  • ADB Announces Record $100m Quake Aid Package for Myanmar

    shares
    Share 0 Tweet 0

Newsletter

Get The Irrawaddy’s latest news, analyses and opinion pieces on Myanmar in your inbox.

Subscribe here for daily updates.

Contents

  • News
  • Politics
  • War Against the Junta
  • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
  • Conflicts In Numbers
  • Junta Crony
  • Ethnic Issues
  • Asia
  • World
  • Business
  • Economy
  • Election 2020
  • Elections in History
  • Cartoons
  • Features
  • Opinion
  • Editorial
  • Commentary
  • Guest Column
  • Analysis
  • Letters
  • In Person
  • Interview
  • Profile
  • Dateline
  • Specials
  • Myanmar Diary
  • Women & Gender
  • Places in History
  • On This Day
  • From the Archive
  • Myanmar & COVID-19
  • Intelligence
  • Myanmar-China Watch
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Food
  • Fashion & Design
  • Videos
  • Photos
  • Photo Essay
  • Donation

About The Irrawaddy

Founded in 1993 by a group of Myanmar journalists living in exile in Thailand, The Irrawaddy is a leading source of reliable news, information, and analysis on Burma/Myanmar and the Southeast Asian region. From its inception, The Irrawaddy has been an independent news media group, unaffiliated with any political party, organization or government. We believe that media must be free and independent and we strive to preserve press freedom.

  • Copyright
  • Code of Ethics
  • Privacy Policy
  • Team
  • About Us
  • Careers
  • Contact
  • Burmese

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password?

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • News
    • Burma
    • Politics
    • World
    • Asia
    • Myanmar’s Crisis & the World
    • Ethnic Issues
    • War Against the Junta
    • Junta Cronies
    • Conflicts In Numbers
    • Junta Watch
    • Fact Check
    • Investigation
    • Myanmar-China Watch
    • Obituaries
  • Politics
  • Opinion
    • Commentary
    • Guest Column
    • Analysis
    • Editorial
    • Stories That Shaped Us
    • Letters
  • Ethnic Issues
  • War Against the Junta
  • In Person
    • Interview
    • Profile
  • Business
    • Economy
    • Business Roundup
  • Books
  • Donation

© 2023 Irrawaddy Publishing Group. All Rights Reserved

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.