Will China invade Taiwan? It will, but only in a forthcoming TV series titled “Zero Day”.
The Taiwanese series dramatizes a possible invasion by China’s People’s Liberation Army. Following a military blockade, panic and chaos rip through the besieged island: residents scramble to withdraw cash, foreign nationals rush to be evacuated, riots break out in prisons and television networks are hacked into broadcasting enemy propaganda.
Although it will not be broadcast until next year, the show has already stirred emotion and fear in Taiwan over what an imminent Chinese invasion might look like with the release of a trailer last month.
It is partly funded by the authorities in Taipei and will consist of 10 episodes that start airing in May 2025. But a 17-minute trailer was released in July this year during simulated air raids as part of Taiwan’s Han Kuang Exercise.
Scenarios of a financial crash, cyberattacks, sabotage and the proliferation of fake news as preludes to war have sparked emotional responses and widespread discussion across the nation.
In August, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese academics and strategists have proposed the creation of a “shadow government” for Taiwan. The plan involves setting up a fully prepared administrative body, the “Central Taiwan Work Committee”, which would be ready to take over in Taiwan immediately upon “unification”—whether achieved by peaceful means or military action. It emphasizes the committee’s role in swiftly assuming control of the island’s administration.
The proposed committee would handle such tasks as currency conversion and infrastructure integration between Taiwan and China, while also encouraging Taiwanese participation in takeover discussions.
The plan aligns with Beijing’s 2022 white paper on Taiwan, titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era”, which emphasizes a swift and decisive integration of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China. The shadow government would supposedly make the annexation less problematic.
This suggests that Beijing is considering a more calculated approach, with a pre-emptive administrative takeover potentially preceding any military action or formal annexation.
The shadow government paper originated from the Cross-Strait Institute of Urban Planning at Xiamen University and was initially posted on WeChat before being removed. The institute, part of the university’s architecture and civil engineering school, confirmed its authorship and hinted at plans to repost the article, although it has not reappeared so far.
A more powerful and assertive China is increasingly flexing its political and military muscles and raising tensions to new heights.
Such infiltration and coercion target not only Taiwan but also other neighboring countries including Myanmar.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent visit to recognize the junta in Myanmar provoked criticism from the Myanmar government in exile.
China will be unable to solve the crisis in Myanmar by holding talks with “untrustworthy” military dictators, according to Kyaw Zaw, the President’s Office of the civilian National Unity Government (NUG) warned.
Wang visited Naypyitaw on Aug. 14 for talks with junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. During the trip Wang repeatedly asked Myanmar leaders to safeguard Chinese personnel and projects in Myanmar, maintain peace and stability along the China-Myanmar border, step up joint efforts to crack down on cross-border crime, and create a safe environment for bilateral exchanges and cooperation.
In return, Min Aung Hlaing begged China to help stop the offensives of resistance groups and promised to protect Chinese projects and their employees.
A week later, a provincial agency in China’s Yunnan province bordering Shan State warned the ethnic Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to immediately stop fighting the Myanmar regime in northern Shan or face “more deterrent and disciplinary measures”. The statement came from the Ruili City Security Commission in the major trading hub across the border from Muse in Shan State.
It urged the TNLA to cooperate with China in “maintaining peace and stability” in northern Shan State and along the border, and to ensure the safety of the border and the people who live in the area, as well as of Chinese projects and Chinese nationals in Myanmar. It warned that the TNLA will be held entirely responsible for the consequences of any military activities harmful to Chinese border stability and to the lives and properties of Chinese citizens.
The Chinese government has also urged other ethnic armed groups in northern and eastern Shan to block trade routes to prevent the flow of food, medicine and fuel to the TNLA.
The TNLA is a member of the Brotherhood Alliance, which launched Operation 1027 in northern Shan State last year, seizing hundreds of junta bases and command centers, 24 junta military battalion headquarters and around 20 towns and vital trade routes with China.
In January, the NUG issued an official position on China, pledging to “safeguard Chinese economic investments and other socioeconomic enterprises within Myanmar.” The document also promised that “the ‘one China principle’ will be upheld and supported in a sustained manner.”
Made up of former civilian leaders and anti-junta activists, the NUG issued the statement pledging support for China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan in what was widely seen as an attempt to curry favor with Beijing as it vies for international recognition against Myanmar’s ruling junta. This underscored the geopolitical importance of the Taiwan issue and the lengths to which entities, even those struggling for their own legitimacy, are willing to go to align with China.
The NUG’s support for Beijing came as a surprise given Myanmar’s own struggles with authoritarianism and the fight for democracy. But it was a reflection of broader international dynamics at play, where aligning with China on sensitive issues like Taiwan could be seen as a way to gain favor or secure strategic advantages.
For Taiwan, this development is yet another indication of the challenges it faces on the international stage, where the battle for recognition and support is increasingly influenced by China’s economic and political clout.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is an analyst on geopolitical and macroeconomic issues.
