At a time when China is working on several plans to save Myanmar’s military junta from collapse in the face of an aggressive offensive from rebels, Beijing is struggling to digest the shock it received from an attack on its consulate in Mandalay—the first such attack in more than five decades.
According to The Irrawaddy, which has been extensively covering Myanmar-China relations, the attack took place on Oct. 18 at 5 p.m. in Mandalay’s Chanmyathazi Township, where the Chinese Consulate compound remains “sealed off to the outside with a high fence” and police keep a 24-hour vigil to protect it from any security-related mishaps.
“China is deeply shocked at the attack and strongly condemns it. The Chinese Foreign Ministry and Embassy and Consulate-General in Myanmar activated the emergency response mechanism right away and quickly started handling the incident,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said.
This is the first time since the military-led coup in Myanmar in February 2021 and the second time since 1967 that a Chinese diplomatic mission has been attacked in the Southeast Asian nation. The Chinese Embassy in Myanmar was attacked for the first time during anti-Chinese riots 57 years ago.
Shaken by the incident, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian further said that Beijing has “lodged serious protests to Myanmar” and urged the Myanmar side to get to the bottom of the incident, make an all-out effort to hunt down the perpetrators and bring them to justice in accordance with law, and “fully strengthen security measures for Chinese Embassy, Consulate-General, institutions, projects, and personnel in Myanmar, and prevent similar incidents from happening again.”
It took place as several rebel groups, subscribing to democratic principles, have come together to fight against the military junta. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Arakan Army and the People’s Defense Force (PDF) have aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG) to fight against the junta. The NUG was established by a coalition of ousted democratically elected parliamentarians and their ethnic allies after the February 2021 military coup.
After the junta received setbacks at the hands of rebels in northern Shan State and northern and central Rakhine State, and lost control of several villages and towns in Karenni State, nervous China rushed its Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Myanmar in August to show its support for the regime, which has fully cooperated with China in safeguarding its interests, including the China-Myanmar pipeline project.
China has invested heavily in Myanmar over the years in its mines; infrastructure such as ports, roads, bridges, and railways; and its oil and gas sector, even after a military-led coup hit the Southeast Asian country in 2021. The total investment of China in Myanmar stands at US$22 billion. Myanmar has also played a significant role in China’s goal to get direct access to the Indian Ocean as it “seeks to reduce its dependence on the narrow chokepoints of the Strait of Malacca for its oil imports,” the South China Morning Post said in a recent report.
According to Myanmar state television broadcaster MRTV, Wang, who arrived in the Southeast Asian nation on Aug. 14, met Min Aung Hlaing, head of the ruling State Administration Council, and assured him of China’s help in bringing stability and peace to the country.
On Aug. 30, China’s new ambassador to Myanmar, Ma Jia, met the junta’s defense minister, General Tin Aung San, in Naypyitaw to discuss border security and joint military training, MRTV said. It is said that during the meeting Ma reiterated her country’s commitment to military cooperation with Myanmar.
Such activities by Chinese representatives in Myanmar have not gone down well with rebel groups, which have taken control of more than 86 percent of the country’s territory after months of fighting. They are upset with Beijing for its blind support of the military.
Myanmar watchers say that the attack on the Chinese Consulate signals growing resentment against China, which has refused to condemn the coup and instead continues extending its support to the military junta, even as it has been accused of human rights violations, carrying out unlawful airstrikes harming civilians in its operations against ethnic armed groups, and rampant corruption.
Experts say China’s main concern in Myanmar is the safety of its interests, and peace and stability in the neighborhood. Sharing a more than 2,000 km-long border with Myanmar, Beijing does not want an unstable state on its border as it fears it could impact its security.
To ward off the immediate collapse of the military junta, Beijing even tried to broker a ceasefire between the armed ethnic rebels and the junta, but it failed. It has also pressured the junta to conduct an election next year and make all rebel groups participate in it. But the NUG and all major rebel groups, including the PDF, have rejected this offer, saying under the junta there will be no free and fair elections.
Even as China weighs the consequences of the rebels’ rejection of the elections, the attack on its consulate in Mandalay has shaken Beijing to the core. It is concerned about its interests in the Southeast Asian nation; it fears that its economic, political, diplomatic, and strategic interests may suffer incalculable damage in the country if rebels, emboldened by victories against the military in key parts of the country, mount further major offensives against the junta.
Moreover, Beijing fears that an unstable Myanmar on its border would trigger a major problem for its overall security and spell doom for its Indo-Pacific strategy, given that it aims to reunite Taiwan with mainland China in the next few years and strengthen its claim over the entire South and East China Seas.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a consultant with the Policy Perspectives Foundation. She has previously worked as assistant director and consultant with the National Security Council Secretariat, Prime Minister’s Office, New Delhi, where she handled the Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) and regional security desks.
