Resistance groups mainly comprising Gen Z members mushroomed after Myanmar’s military regime conducted a brutal crackdown on young demonstrators peacefully protesting the 2021 coup.
Formed soon after in border areas were the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), National Unity Consultative Council (NUCC) and National Unity Government (NUG). Those who took up arms against the regime underwent military training in local or rebel-controlled areas and staged an armed uprising popularly known as the Spring Revolution.
The Spring Revolution has now entered its third year, along with the NUG.
In its early days, there was wide agreement that the Spring Revolution was spearheaded by the civilian NUG. But three years later, many resistance groups no longer accept NUG leadership.
It is understandably impossible for the NUG to achieve command and control over the hundreds of revolutionary organizations operating across the country. But it needs to review why more and more groups are leaving its umbrella, and take necessary steps to fix this.
Staging an armed revolution requires well-articulated objectives and a sound strategy. Support from local people also matters. Fought by spirited and energetic young people, the revolution has made remarkable progress.
But for success, an armed revolution must come under a single command or headquarters. The NUG’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) has tried to fulfill this requirement. But so far it has achieved little success.
The MOD was formed and is based in the territory of a veteran ethnic armed organization (EAO) which has fought the Myanmar military for decades. It is therefore surprising that this EAO has little involvement in the ministry. Analysts have suggested that the NUG should instead invite veterans of armed revolution to take senior positions in the MOD.
To make things more difficult, no foreign government has publicly supported the armed revolt in Myanmar. Around the world, weapons are easily available on the black market for rebel groups. Yet the Spring Revolution remains short of weaponry. The MOD has thus drawn criticism from donors.
In the absence of support from other countries, the revolt has continued with funds contributed by Myanmar communities around the world, which deserves praise.
A brief review of the NUG’s structure would be instructive here. It was formed as a government in exile. However, it is not the successor of the civilian government that held power from 2016 to 2020. Neither was it formed according to the 2020 election results. Equipped with numerous ministries, its formation was based on the standard structure of a government. While it is costly, it is not productive.
The laws that it has passed do not affect people. The reality is that it has too many ministers and deputy ministers who have no work to do.
“They should have formed a revolutionary government,” commented one politician, “but instead they formed a government in exile.”
Though I can understand why the international community does not support the Spring Revolution, I am baffled at its failure to recognize the NUG. I assume this is because the MOD is engaged in armed revolution. The NUG should review why it has not won recognition from the international community.
Much to the NUG’s relief, no government has lent full support to junta boss Min Aung Hlaing, who has made a series of blunders.
The NUG’s foreign policy should focus on engaging with Myanmar’s neighbors, given the current situation. It cannot avoid China, India and Thailand, so its priority must be to engage with these countries.
Since European nations and the US have already expressed support for restoring democracy in Myanmar, the NUG should stop spending so much time attending ribbon-cutting ceremonies in these countries and instead focus on improving ties with neighbors.
The consequence of getting too close to western countries is that the NUG has drawn ire from a neighboring giant crucial to Myanmar issues. At the ceasefire talks it brokered in the second week of January, China reportedly warned EAOs conducting Operation 1027 to steer clear of the NUG. The NUG issued its stance on China earlier on Jan. 1, but it appears to have had no impact.
Specific factors decide the success or failure of an armed revolution. The Spring Revolution is endowed with strong public support as well as a common enemy. But the availability of weapons has been a problem.
Weapons are available in bulk at two places in Myanmar – ordnance factories run by the military in the west of Ayeyarwady Region and on the northeastern border with China. Weapons can be bought in other places, but not in large quantities. If sufficient weapons can’t be obtained from the global black market, the northeastern border will become a focus for resistance forces in Myanmar. But there could be serious consequences for the Spring Revolution if it errs in its approach towards China.
Fighting alone will not achieve success in the revolution. There must be a balance between military and political struggle.
The NUG was widely expected to serve as the political front of the Spring Revolution. But over the past three years, it has failed either to unify armed organizations that emerged after the putsch or forge alliances with EAOs. It has not even been able to resolve disputes between elected National League for Democracy politicians-turned-revolutionaries, civilian administration bodies and People’s Defense Teams who are not NLD members.
On the political front, the NUG should be careful to avoid making mistakes such as taking punitive action against civil servants who refuse to join the civil disobedience movement (CDM). It should also be aware that pushing for the closure of universities, the traditional rallying point for revolutionaries in Myanmar’s history, is counterproductive.
The NUG has declared the 2008 military-drafted constitution null and void, which generated momentum for its political struggle. But the CRPH still clings to the results of the 2020 election, which was held according to the 2008 Constitution. So, there is a contradiction between the two bodies. The priority should be to eliminate military dictatorship, not to retrieve power. They must be clear on whether they are fighting for power or to change the political system.
Myanmar’s people want rid of all dictators, not just military dictators. The NUG must acknowledge that the people will no longer support any kind of dictatorship. It must realize that people are supporting the revolution with perseverance only because it is a revolt against dictatorship.
The regime is losing ground on the military front. It has ceded large swaths of territory in many areas, including northeastern Myanmar, and Rakhine and Karenni states. But, on the other hand, People’s Defense Forces are short of weapons and ammunition.
The regime now reportedly plans to form an interim government with well-known politicians, representatives of Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement signatories, and political party leaders. It could then present this body to the world as a civilian government.
Neighboring countries whose border trade is threatened by internal conflicts in Myanmar could choose to support the regime-backed government, undermining the NUG.
It is high time that the NUG reviewed its weaknesses and shortcomings with a genuine commitment to achieving victory in the Spring Revolution. Its first priority should be to end military rule in Myanmar.
Myanmar people are longing for an organization that will take the lead role in reunifying a country that is on the brink of falling apart. Every citizen will support any organization or individual that can restore genuine peace and unity while consigning dictatorship to the dustbin of history.
Nyan Lin is a veteran former politician.
