As you all know, a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on March 28, leaving more than 3,700 people dead, over 5,000 injured, and approximately 80 percent of buildings and infrastructure destroyed in the hardest-hit areas. According to the UNDP, 70 percent of the affected areas are under the control of the junta, or State Administration Council (SAC), while the remaining 30 percent fall within resistance-held territories.
Realizing the scale of devastation—and acknowledging the need for technical expertise—the military junta requested international assistance from the outset. This marked a rare moment of openness, as the SAC recognized its inability to manage the crisis alone.
International aid, including emergency search and rescue teams, quickly arrived and provided vital assistance. The SAC permitted most aid operations in severely affected areas such as Sagaing, Mandalay and Naypyitaw. However, they denied access to resistance-controlled territories—such as those held by the People’s Defense Force (PDF) under the National Unity Government (NUG). The junta, deeply concerned about possible PDF infiltration, went as far as restricting local organizations and individual donors from operating independently. In some cases, they arrested volunteers, confiscated aid supplies, or forced organizations to collaborate with them.
In response to the quake, the NUG declared a 20-day humanitarian ceasefire to facilitate rescue efforts in affected areas. The military junta announced a three-week reciprocal ceasefire—though this was soon revealed to be disingenuous. The declaration conveniently coincided with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing’s visit to Bangkok for the BIMSTEC meeting, a regional summit of South and Southeast Asian nations.
Despite the ceasefire announcement, reports of junta airstrikes and artillery fire emerged within 24 hours, targeting resistance areas. Over the next week, 63 separate attacks left 68 civilians dead, including women and children. Civilian targets, including mobile healthcare teams treating earthquake victims, continue to be attacked.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), neighboring countries, and the broader international community have pushed for the maintenance of humanitarian truces. While much of their engagement with the SAC has been public, communication with the NUG and resistance forces has been conducted more discreetly. UN agencies, including the country team, have attempted to deliver aid to people in resistance-controlled areas. Though some efforts succeeded, many did not.
This situation has prompted a proposal for a sustainable humanitarian pause, potentially through the creation of a humanitarian corridor or safe zone. Malaysia, the current ASEAN chair, has taken a proactive role. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim invited the junta leader to Bangkok to discuss a sustainable humanitarian pause. He also met with NUG Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Thann to explore ways to deliver aid to non-SAC-controlled areas and reportedly discussed the possibility of a broader cessation of hostilities.
While the idea of a sustained humanitarian pause is commendable—especially in light of early recovery efforts—several questions remain. Who will monitor and enforce such an agreement? What happens if a party violates its terms? Who will ensure civilians are protected from abuse, forced relocation and property seizure or destruction? Furthermore, aid delivery and recovery operations must align with the principles of non-discrimination and international humanitarian law.
Even a unilateral declaration of a humanitarian pause must come with a clear code of conduct and terms of reference. International monitoring, a complaint mechanism, and a dispute resolution framework are essential, along with a credible enforcement strategy. Without these safeguards, the effort risks devolving into a series of unresolved complaints about the junta’s habitual violations.
Another significant risk is the potential for the junta to exploit a humanitarian pause to stage sham elections—an attempt to manufacture legitimacy it currently lacks. The Spring Revolution will never accept such a facade, particularly when the junta no longer controls more than half the country’s territory. Any stability arising from a humanitarian pause must not be manipulated to prepare for fraudulent elections.
Humanitarian aid is urgently needed. But at the same time, the root causes of military dictatorship must not be ignored. Without addressing these fundamental issues, both man-made and natural disasters will continue to devastate our country.
Moe Zaw Oo is the deputy foreign minister of Myanmar’s parallel National Unity Government.
