The generals know well that China has the means and the will to intervene on behalf of its substantial interests in Myanmar—not to mention a long history of doing so.
The four-nation alliance includes India and Japan, who maintain good relationships with both the Myanmar military and the NLD.
The regional bloc should invite representation both from the National Unity Government and the military regime.
ASEAN’s refusal to be manipulated by the military regime leaves the junta isolated and threatens its internal cohesion.
Recent events in Myanmar and Afghanistan offer the West a lesson: successful governments generate legitimacy first, and only later create a security force to protect it.
Hit-and-run clashes with ethnic Burmese fighters in the heartland and urban guerrilla warfare now complicate the Tatmadaw’s traditional task of containing ethnic armies.
The new security pact is a big gamble for the US, Australia and the UK, and will necessitate a strategic rethink in Southeast Asia, Europe, Japan, China and elsewhere.
Any future peace process must be genuinely inclusive and not repeat the mistakes made by both military and civilian governments of the past.
Calls have emerged from within ASEAN to shun Myanmar, but such a move would harm the regional grouping’s members in the long run.
A whole new set of military, economic and social dynamics, both inside and outside the country, will make it much harder for the generals to impose their will this time.
The ASEAN Charter puts people at the center of its community-building efforts; this means the ‘ASEAN way’ must be expanded beyond espousing the rights of states.
Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha stressed the importance of the Buddhist concept of ‘balance of all things’ in preparing for the post COVID-19 era.
While foreign capitals uselessly call for peace, the regime’s atrocities worsen by the day, only serving to justify the National Unity Government’s call to arms.
Beijing will continue to back the junta to protect its access to the Indian Ocean, but it has learned not to put all its eggs in one basket in its southern neighbor.
New railways linking China to Southeast and South Asia have significant security implications for India.