The world is unstable, and the international system is broken—this is bad news. US President-elect Donald Trump will take office on Jan. 20, marking his return to the White House, and this will create more anxiety and uncertainty throughout the world.
Compared to the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, Myanmar gets little attention as it goes through civil war and strife with no end in sight. The US has no strategic interests in Myanmar, seeing it as being in China’s sphere of influence.
After a dire 2024, people in Myanmar would like to see meaningful change in the country. For this to happen, neighbors’ intervention and the West’s political weight are vital to shape the landscape in the country. However, in the case of Myanmar, possibilities for intervention and diplomatic tools are limited. But ultimately it is neither the West nor its neighbors that matter most; it is the Myanmar people and their aspiration to challenge the criminals in Naypyitaw. They are the ones shaping the country’s future.
No matter what, there will be a change in 2025. This is what we hear from Myanmar people inside and outside, and we hope that real change is coming. Will it be a new federal democratic nation or a failed, disintegrated and fractured Myanmar?
Indeed, it is difficult to gauge where the country is headed in 2025, other than to expect that it will slide further into darkness and economic hardship with the spread of armed conflict to central Myanmar.
So, what changes will come? Political analysts say that major political events could take place. Will we witness something new and unexpected, like a serpent emerging out of nowhere?
Here are some happenings we may see in this year.
Election
Will this year bring an election? Or political negotiations? Or bloodshed? Activists and watermelons inside the armed forces say they are determined to see the removal of regime leader Min Aung Hlaing. If this is the case, who will do so? The ethnic armed opposition is striving to end the military dictatorship. Powerful ethnic armies and insurgent groups are maneuvering to advance their agendas, and have so far achieved many military victories as well as territorial gains.
Will we see the fall of Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State, before Armed Forces Day on March 27? Victorious ethnic leaders announcing autonomous regions in Rakhine, Chin and Kachin?
If so, we might see the implosion of the military and the fall of the State Administration Council (SAC). What about the release of detained government leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi who is now 80? If not, might we see her secret burial in an unknown place? Or, more optimistically, will we see the convening of a major political convention to draw up a road map ahead of an election? Then what about neighbors’ intervention, such as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led “peace keeping forces” endorsed by China?
Or will we witness something completely unexpected, a political outcome that neither the military regime or opposition forces expect and do not want to see but must accept?
The junta has vowed to hold the election according to an arbitrary timeline, and China said it would back the vote. Many in the opposition have dismissed the election and critics doubt that it can be held under current circumstances. The opposition has rejected the election since it won’t be free, fair or inclusive, serving merely to extend military rule, like the vote in 2010. Acting as a counterpoint to this are the opposition forces including the National Unity Government (NUG), seeking to demonstrate that they are united and offer a credible alternative to the regime. Instead of seeking recognition the NUG should continue to build support among ethnic alliances and demonstrate that it is a viable option to the junta.
The regime leader Min Aung Hlaing is a war criminal, a troll and completely incapable of governing the country. The regime hasn’t been able to put down the rebellion since the coup and has only seen the civil war spread.
Junta military losing ground
In 2024, we witnessed significant losses by Myanmar military forces, despite pessimistic analyses from experts on Myanmar. The military’s Northeast Command in Shan State adjacent to China and its Western Command in Rakhine State bordering Bangladesh were captured by resistance forces, with senior military officers and thousands of soldiers killed or surrendering along with substantial quantities of ammunition, weapons, armored vehicles, artillery, and tanks.
The military’s Light Infantry Divisions (LIDs), once feared and admired when they served under former dictator General Ne Win against ethnic insurgents and Burmese communists, faced humiliating defeats in the last two years in Shan, Kachin, Kayah and Rakhine states.
Thus, the regime has relied heavily on its air force. Now the regime is deeply dependent on China to halt the offensive and to contain the war and ethnic armed organizations based along the China-Myanmar border.
In any case, the good news is the military is in a state of decline; it is weak and shrinking. The military has seen a wave of desertions, defeats, low morale and loss of dignity. With rising resentment in the ranks, opposition figures speculate regime leader could face assassination or overthrow.
It is important to note that most of the Burman population have shown no sign of regret or sorrow over the losses and major defeats experienced by Myanmar’s armed forces, which they once respected. Rather, they are experiencing schadenfreude—something unprecedented in the modern history of Myanmar’s armed forces. The opposition, whether Burman or ethnic armed groups fighting the regime, enjoy public support. Indeed, this is a watershed moment for the Myanmar military.
Myanmar’s economic outlook remains bleak. According to the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor, Myanmar’s GDP is expected to contract by 1 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a downward revision from the previous projection of modest growth. Due to the coup and forced conscription, Myanmar also suffered from brain drain as many young people left the country.
When it comes to natural disasters (or pandemics), Myanmar is ill-prepared for an increasingly worsening climate and is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
Natural disasters such as floods, cyclones, extreme heat and landslides and the ongoing conflict have hit Myanmar’s economy hard.
Myanmar’s diverse diaspora communities continue to raise funds to support the revolution and will continue to do so in 2025, which they see as a make or break year for the country. Likewise, Myanmar’s independent exiled media will continue (while struggling for funds and facing challenges ahead) to do important work on Myanmar, covering major events this year.
Neighbors’ nightmare
China, India, Bangladesh and Thailand are getting restless about Myanmar’s deteriorating situation. Thailand and other neighbors are extremely concerned with border security, increasing drug production and transnational cybercrimes, as well as the flow of refugees and growing exile communities. So, aside from the toothless ASEAN, who will intervene in the Myanmar crisis? China? India? Thailand? China, the most influential external actor in Myanmar, has officially backed the election and is keeping its options open as the situation remains volatile and unpredictable.
Unlike the US, China has serious geopolitical strategic interests in Myanmar, particularly maintaining access to the Indian Ocean. Beijing wants to bring an end to the Myanmar crisis, but on its own terms and in a way that serves these interests.
Some analysts think China wants to see leadership change in the military (but not the collapse of the military) to end the reign of commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. Perhaps China thinks the election may pave the way for Min Aung Hlaing to depart from politics. Or is he preparing to leave? The generals believe they should be the ones running the country and thus they will not depart easily unless they are forced out or find a durable political compromise.
Bangladesh will not see any chance to repatriate Rohingya refugees in 2025. Now, the regime is recruiting Rohingya to counter the rising Arakan Army (the AA, an ethno-nationalist group) which controls almost the entire Rakhine State. The United League of Arakan, the political wing of the AA, has expressed a commitment to establishing an autonomous region in Rakhine.
How will Bangladesh respond to the AA’s consolidation of Rakhine State? What about Muslim extremists? Both Myanmar and Bangladesh are fragile states and Myanmar’s disintegration will only deepen tension and conflict between the two countries.
In any case, at the end of the day, political negotiation will be the key, but the fighting will not end quickly, as Burman opposition and ethnic armies know that their continued military success will give them more political leverage in future negotiations. This is not the time for mediation—not yet.
But this time critics and opposition members say the Myanmar military should not be the key stakeholder in future negotiations and can only be one of many sitting in on the discussion. Better Min Aung Hlaing and his war criminals are no longer there; new and moderate ones in khaki should be participating in the negotiations instead. The military’s charter glorifies the military as playing a leading role in national politics, but that has only brought disaster and reduced Myanmar to a failed state in recent decades. In fact, if they are serious about regaining past glory and strength, the Myanmar military should reform in order to restore its place in history, serving in the future union of Myanmar while retreating from politics. In other words, it should be a professional army that protects and serves the people.
Last but not least, we would like to congratulate the people of Myanmar; they are the heroes who have kept faith and hope alive in this revolution at it prepares to enter its fifth year.
We all are living in depressing times, and we are exhausted, but many in Myanmar hope that the murderous regime will be toppled soon, or that some miracle will occur to make them disappear.
Happy ending?
However unstable the world, Myanmar citizens deserve attention and applause for their perseverance, resilience and fighting spirit! They refuse to accept the return of military rule and the status quo.
Have a peaceful and happy New Year!
