Living under the military junta, Myanmar people thirst for good news to comfort them, especially any development that suggests the ruling criminal regime might be vulnerable. On Sunday, they got some.
The news of the stunning victory by Syrian rebels that ended Bashar al-Assad’s decades-long rule, with opposition forces taking the capital and forcing the president to flee to Russia, made their day. News and pictures of Syrians celebrating their freedom in the streets of Damascus were widely and enviously shared by Myanmar people on social media. This was real—not some misinformation campaign designed to alarm the generals, who have ordered daily airstrikes against opposition forces and civilians in Myanmar.
Could a similar scenario play out in Myanmar? Now we are seeing a storm of discussion on social media—endless opinions and comments about the fall of the Assad regime and whether it could happen in Myanmar. If Min Aung Hlaing were to face the same fate, would Russia or China take him and his wife in? It is a bit far-fetched at this point, but many staunch supporters of the revolution in Myanmar hope for such an outcome. This publication published a cartoon (see insert) mocking the regime—it was a leg-puller. But the fear of losing power runs deep in Naypyitaw.
Syria’s future is uncertain. More chaos, or even a new war, could be around the corner. But still people in Myanmar eagerly shared the news of the fall of the murderous regime in Damascus.
Understandably, regime-controlled newspapers did not publish any news of Assad’s defeat or his flight to Russia—which was a friend of the Assad regime and continues to be a strong ally of the Myanmar junta.
Sudden collapse is every dictatorial regime’s nightmare, but it can happen anywhere, and Myanmar is no exception. It is inspiring to see the Syrian people rejoice in it. With the junta rapidly losing territory, Myanmar people and opposition groups are allowing themselves to dream of the day the Min Aung Hlaing regime in Naypyitaw faces the same fate.
Like Assad, Min Aung Hlaing has committed crimes against his own citizens over the last four years and the people will not forget those atrocities easily.
As Assad fell from grace, Myanmar people heartily embraced the news closer to home that Myanmar ethnic opposition forces have seized more strategic towns in Rakhine and Chin states.
The fall of Maungdaw in Rakhine to the Arakan Army (AA) saw the capture of junta Brigadier General Thurein Tun, commander of Military Operations Command 15. Now, the Myanmar-Bangladesh border is under the full control of the AA. In Chin, anti-regime resistance forces have seized the last regime outpost on the strategic plain between the state capital Hakha and Thantlang, among other victories.
In Kachin State in the country’s north, defying China’s pressure, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) continued to attack regime outposts in Bhamo and Mansi townships.
Like other dictators, however, Min Aung Hlaing lives in a delusional dream world. Even as his troops compete with each other to surrender to opposition forces, and the territories he controls shrink across the country, he still believes Myanmar, “the Golden Land”, is “stable” and “peaceful”, according to his speech at the National Sports Festival in Naypyitaw last week. (FYI: He didn’t explain why there was such a heavy security presence at the event!)
In fact, under his reign since 2021, much of Myanmar has been reduced to ashes, making political and social instability the norm. His army is facing unprecedented pressure from resistance forces and now faces the real threat of imploding. But Min Aung Hlaing still seems to believe that he can restore normalcy in the country with the help of his major foreign allies, such as China and Russia.
But he would do well to take note of the fact that no assistance was forthcoming from Assad’s allies Iran and Russia when the Syrian rebels were on the road to Damascus, forcing Assad and his family to run for their lives.
It’s the scenario he fears most. With resistance victories unfolding nationwide today, no one can rule out the possibility that Myanmar’s military dictator won’t face the same fate as Assad. One thing we can say with certainty today is that the fall of the Assad regime was a source of delight for the Myanmar people more than 6,000 km away, and will certainly have shaken the regime leadership in Naypyitaw.
To Myanmar people, it serves as a comforting reminder of history’s lesson that all dictators eventually fall, no matter how formidable they seem. Myanmar people have seen the rises and falls of repressive regimes in their own country. They suffered and they finally overcame them. With Min Aung Hlaing in power and an unwavering resistance movement opposing him, the people of Myanmar are currently enduring another chaotic time with their trademark resilience.
When it comes, the people of Myanmar will welcome the next upheaval—for Min Aung Hlaing it is something to fear.
