Southeast Asia stands at a critical juncture in the fight against climate change, with profound vulnerabilities threatening its future. According to the World Risk Index 2024, the Philippines and Indonesia are the most risk-prone countries globally while Myanmar is positioned sixth. The Global Climate Risk Index ranks Myanmar second for its exposure to extreme weather events from 2000 to 2019, including devastating floods and Cyclone Nargis.
Coupled with the protracted civil war that erupted after the 2021 coup, Myanmar is perilously unprepared for the impact of climate change, which threatens to become even more severe. Thailand, too, is not immune: it ranks eighth in the same index, indicating its precarity to natural disasters, even without the compounded risks from neighboring Myanmar.
Climate change hazards, stalled national responses, and local action
The recent devastation wrought by Typhoon Yagi is a stark reminder of the urgent need for action. In Myanmar, landslides and flash floods claimed at least 444 lives and destroyed multiple villages and infrastructure, prompting the junta to request assistance from the international community for the first time since it usurped power in 2021.
Meanwhile in northern Thailand provinces, notably Chiang Rai, a colossal deluge overflowed from rivers originating in Myanmar (e.g. the Sai, and Kok), submerging most of the town with murky water and later viscous mud that would take weeks if not months to clear out.
Data on climate change suggest that such catastrophic events are just the beginning, meaning that any climate impact in Myanmar will increasingly spill over into Thailand. If Thailand does not come up with a proper plan for climate change adaptation and mitigation that includes addressing the “Myanmar effect”, further damage and harm to Thai citizens along the border are likely to follow.
Karen State bordering Thailand can serve as an illustration of potential climate impacts on Thai-Myanmar borderlands, local climate action projects which could be supported by Thailand, and points for consideration from a strategic planning perspective.
In 2021, near-identical versions of a Myanmar Climate Change Strategy were submitted separately to the UN Framework for Climate Change (UNFCC) by both the junta and the National Unity Government (NUG), outlining the country’s contributions toward climate change adaptation and mitigation. While this plan aimed for Myanmar to become a climate-resilient country by 2030, it was put together pre-coup with little community consultation, reflecting the top-down approach of both the National League for Democracy (NLD)/NUG government and the State Administration Council (SAC) that ousted it.
Since the coup, the SAC has taken to pillaging Myanmar’s resources to pay for its war against the people. The junta is in no position to implement useful climate action, even if it wanted to. For example, the Myanmar Unified Platform for Disaster Risk Application (MUDRA)—a national comprehensive multi-hazard and probabilistic disaster risks assessment established by the Myanmar government in collaboration with other technical agencies and financial assistance from Canada in 2019—is no longer accessible at the time of writing, indicating that this potentially useful project has probably been discontinued.
Meanwhile, anti-junta forces are taking the lead in managing their own natural resources and developing climate action strategies. Local stakeholders in Kawthoolei (the free Karen state) and elsewhere are developing their own adaptation and mitigation plans, which document and recognize indigenous peoples’ stewardship of the natural environment, and contributions toward sustainable climate change strategies.
The forests of Myanmar—located mostly in ethnic areas including the Thai border area—are the best in mainland Southeast Asia. A particularly good example is the Salween Peace Park (SPP), a 5,500-square-kilometer conservation area in the highlands of northern Karen State, from which Thailand has indirectly benefited through its conservation of forest and biodiversity. In 2020, the UNDP awarded the Equator Prize to the SPP “for maintaining stability and conservation of a […] continuous ecosystem made up of protected areas, community forests and indigenous lands”. According to its website, the SPP is a community-led initiative that strives to empower local indigenous communities to revitalize their traditional practices, assert their rights, and manage their own natural resources. The Salween Peace Park Governing Committee was created to synchronize efforts between the Karen communities and the Karen National Union (KNU)’s Kawthoolei Forestry Department.
Climate impacts and the need for action
The forthcoming Kawthoolei Climate Change Survey includes data from all seven KNU districts, four of which are adjacent to Thailand. Although the survey’s findings are impressionistic, they point toward a worrying conclusion: climate change is already having a significant impact on agriculture and livelihoods in Karen communities.
The rainy season is starting later and becoming more unpredictable. Rain now generally occurs in more intense bursts, leading to widespread flash flooding and landslides, which can seriously disrupt rice farming as rain also falls in the dry season, which is the planting season for farmers. Later in the rainy season, floods can wash away the entire harvest.
According to the CIDKP, 411 villages, 49,941 households or 259,397 people in Karen State were affected by Typhoon Yagi, which severely damaged paddy fields, food storage facilities, and water resources. The typhoon also caused loss of livestock and poultry, and killed people.
While there is no clear picture of the broad effects of temperature change on agriculture, they seem to be mostly negative. More agricultural pests are reported, which may be correlated with increased temperatures. In some villages, changing patterns of rain and temperature affect the availability of water for drinking and bathing.
Change in weather patterns can also have long-term effects on the wellbeing and food-supply chain of local communities. Despite their impressive resilience, and centuries of sustainable forest living, indigenous communities have limited financial and technical resources to deal with these new and multifaceted crises. More help is needed in conflict-affected areas of Myanmar to address the challenges of climate change. A look at rainfall-monitoring stations in Myanmar provided by the ASEAN Specialized Meteorological Centre (ASMC) shows that there are very few in ethnic-controlled areas, reflecting the disparity in access to technological support even through a regional framework. Across a range of sectors, Myanmar is an “aid orphan”.
Effects of crises in Myanmar in Thailand, and opportunities
Myanmar is beset by multiple political, humanitarian, and climate change-induced crises. Following the coup, well over 3 million people across the country were forced to flee from attacks and horrendous human rights abuses perpetrated by the Myanmar army and proxy forces. Although only cited in a few reports, the ongoing armed conflict massively disrupts local human security and livelihoods as it prevents farmers from maintaining and rehabilitating irrigated rice fields and other local infrastructure. The war also significantly affects travel and access to markets, undermining farmers’ motivation to cultivate additional crops beyond their own subsistence needs.
For Thailand, the stakes are particularly high as the lower Salween River Basin (which spans northern Thailand and Myanmar’s southeast) is already experiencing a tri-stage climate cycle. When temperature increases, wildfires become more rampant and sporadic, making them harder to extinguish. Smoke from the wildfires combined with the seasonal crop burnings exacerbate the air quality—in the trough of the lower Salween Basin, the toxic smog lingers for a long time.
Soil that weathered and burned earlier in the year becomes dry and porous, limiting its capacity to fully absorb liquid in the rainy season. This means that people in the northern Thai provinces and their neighbors across the border in Myanmar will be suffocated by PM 2.5 toxic smog for three months of the year and later drowned in annual floods. Without a comprehensive climate mitigation plan that addresses the spillover effects from Myanmar, Thailand faces severe environmental and humanitarian challenges.
To mitigate that risk, the Thai government should explore collaborations with ethnic governance groups in Myanmar including Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that already play crucial roles in service provision and administration across the border. Among scores of EAOs across the country, at least a dozen control substantial territory with a governmental and public-service apparatus.
The KNU forestry and agriculture departments, for example, have developed inclusive and progressive forestry and land policies together with civil society organizations (CSOs) and local communities. Similar initiatives are underway among several other communities, including Mon, Karenni, Ta’ang, Kachin and Chin. By working with local governance authorities, communities and CSOs, Thailand and other international partners can support best practices in forest management to reduce the drivers of flooding and seasonal haze, helping communities to conserve their natural heritage.
Such collaboration is justified for several reasons. The junta is rapidly losing control across large parts of the country—including many areas adjacent to Thailand—and no longer able to deliver services (let alone climate action) in remote and conflict areas. Instead, the junta is intent on despoiling the environment and attacking civilian communities. That means it lacks trust among the local communities, which makes it an unfit counterpart for Thailand along the border.
By supporting grassroots climate action in partnership with legitimate political entities along the border, like the KNU and Karenni State Interim Executive Council (IEC), Thailand could help to establish early-warning systems for floods and fires in EAO-controlled areas that will forewarn border towns about irregular water levels and flood or fire risks. Supporting EAO administrations and services across the border will also reduce the flow of displaced people (and resulting human-security problems such as communicable diseases) into Thailand.
Improved and localized cross-border trade links should also be encouraged so that livelihoods in border communities can be strengthened. This can bring benefits to local Thai communities as well as those across the border. Without access to health, education, humanitarian assistance and support for sustainable livelihoods, civilians across the border may have little choice but to flee to Thailand amidst the increasing climate instability in Myanmar.
There were just over 1 million Karen IDPs in the seven KNU districts as of last month, according to the CIDKP report. The great majority of these people are determined to stay in their homeland, but if just one percent were forced to flee and cross the border, Thailand would need to host another 10,000 refugees in an already overwhelmed migrant worker and refugee management and protection system.
The climate crisis in Southeast Asia demands a coherent response. Thailand’s proactive engagement with de facto authorities in Myanmar—particularly in areas like Karen State—can lay the groundwork for shared resilience against the effects of climate change. By strengthening cross-border trade and enhancing access to essential services such as health, education, and sustainable livelihoods, both nations can foster stability in a region increasingly threatened by environmental instability.
The time for action is now. As climate change continues to escalate, it is vital that we recognize the interconnectedness of our problems and work collaboratively toward sustainable solutions.
