Recently, the regime has repeatedly emphasized the importance of successfully holding elections in December and started discussing post-election matters—the latest move by an embattled regime seeking legitimacy.
At a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Min Aung Hlaing again insisted that power would be handed over to the winning party after the election, and emphasized constitutional provisions governing the establishment of a quorum needed to convene a parliament and form a government. His deputy Soe Win urged regional and state ministers to make the necessary preparations for the successful holding of the election and systematic power transfer, and to ensure security in areas where elections can be conducted.
Another state of emergency extension?
The regime declared an initial one-year of state of emergency after its coup in February 2021. It has since repeatedly extended it, citing unrest and instability in the country.
The current state of emergency will expire on July 31. If an election is to be held in December as promised, the regime must first hand power back to the military-dominated National Defense and Security Council (NDSC). The council is required to conduct elections within six months, as per the constitution.
According to Sections 428 and 430, the council must form an interim government, which will organize the poll and remain in power until legislative, administrative and judicial branches are established. Min Aung Hlaing, who holds two positions in the NDSC as the acting president and military chief, is likely to lead the interim government.
The interim government to be formed by the NDSC has until the end of January to hold the election. This matches the timeframe Min Aung Hlaing has announced publicly.
Are elections possible?
The junta chief provided the first specific time frame for the long-promised polls during his official visit to Belarus in early March, saying polls are planned in December.
Initially, the junta boss talked about holding a nationwide general election. Later, he pointed out that previous elections in 2010, 2015 and 2020 could not be held nationwide and that elections were held amid difficulties during the era of the Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League (AFPFL) government in the 1950s.
The AFPFL government had to hold elections in three separate phases between 1950 and 1951 due to internal conflicts. Despite this, parliamentary sessions were convened, a government was formed and a president was elected.
The regime has lost large swathes of territory in northern Shan, Rakhine, Kachin, Karenni, Karen, Chin and central Myanmar. Given this situation, it is expected that the election will follow a similar phased approach. Min Aung Hlaing said elections would be started in December and conducted through January.
Meanwhile, despite the armed conflicts elsewhere, Yangon, Mandalay and Ayeyarwady regions are relatively stable and remain under the near complete control of the regime. Combined, they represent a sizeable population, and comprise over 90 townships, meaning they represent more than 90 seats in the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House) and a total of 36 seats in the Amyotha Hluttaw (Upper House). This means a parliament is likely if an election takes place as planned in those regions.
Political parties
Of the 77 parties that have registered with the junta’s election body to contest the December poll, 54 have been approved so far, with nine competing nationwide and 45 contesting only in certain states and regions.
Among the nine parties that are contesting nationwide are the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the National Unity Party, the Shan and Nationalities Democratic Party (SNDP) and the People’s Pioneer Party. The USDP and SNDP have expressed their readiness to contest the poll.
Major pro-democracy parties including the National League for Democracy and Shan Nationalities League for Democracy were dissolved by the regime after they failed to re-register with the junta’s election body.
Holding a parliamentary session
At the recent meeting, Min Aung Hlaing talked about constitutional provisions that enable parliament to convene with only a few dozen elected lawmakers.
The constitutional provisions he cited—Article 85, Article 128 and Article 155—stipulate that on the first day of the Union Parliament’s combined houses session, if more than half of the total number of representatives eligible to attend are present, the session is valid.
If the first session has to be adjourned because a quorum is not present, the next session is valid if one-third of the eligible representatives are present.
Myanmar’s Union Parliament comprises a total of 664 seats. So, the Parliament is valid if 333 lawmakers are present on the first day. Under 2008 Constitution, the Myanmar military holds 25 percent—or 166—of parliament seats (110 in the Lower House and 56 in the Upper House), so the regime only needs 167 elected lawmakers to convene the parliament.
But in fact the regime would need fewer than that. Under the “second session” provision Min Aung Hlaing cited at the meeting, the regime only needs one-third of the representatives to be present. With 166 seats reserved for the Myanmar military, the regime only needs 56 elected lawmakers to make the parliament legitimate.
Given this, a parliament is likely as dozens of parties including the USDP are contesting the December poll. As major pro-democracy parties have been dissolved by the regime, the parliament is poised to be dominated by the USDP and pro-military parties.
The parliament will elect the president, forming a so-called elected government. Under the scenario mentioned above, analysts said, Min Aung Hlaing is likely to assume the president’s office.
Possible post-election scenario
Observers expect the popular armed revolt against the military regime to continue, as there is a widespread view that the poll is a sham designed to maintain the regime’s grip on power with a civilian veneer.
Western countries, the civilian National Unity Government, other anti-regime groups and most Myanmar people have long opposed the junta’s proposed poll.
Min Aung Hlaing claims China, Russia and other international allies fully support the election. Myanmar’s neighbor India has also pledged assistance for the junta’s poll along with China and Russia.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is divided on the junta’s poll. Current ASEAN chair Malaysia has urged the junta to work on halting its violence instead of conducting elections.
However, Thailand and Cambodia as well as the junta’s major allies including China, Russia and Belarus are likely to acknowledge the poll results and recognize the “elected” government to be led by Min Aung Hlaing, enabling him to declare his regime as the legitimate government of Myanmar, analysts said.
This article is supported by the Transition Promotion Programme, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic.
