Trump is back, and an anxious world holds its breath. With a Trump White House expected to bring a return to transactional leadership, what will the next four years hold in store for Southeast Asia, and to what extent will its leaders be able to work with him?
Trump has limited patience when it comes to multilateralism; he had a strained relationship with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during his first term, attending only one ASEAN summit himself (in 2017) and not even bothering to dispatch a cabinet-level official to two of the three others held during the term. Therefore, there are doubtless many in ASEAN who expect the second Trump administration will be unserious about engaging with them and their region.
As cited in The Economist, a poll of 24 countries by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank, showed that many countries including India and Russia think Trump’s return is good news. Most Europeans, in contrast, are panicked.
And we all know how much Trump loves to scorn the UN, which claims to represent and uphold universal human values and rights. Ironically, many oppressed people in Myanmar resonate with Trump’s disdain for the UN as woefully ineffective.
No isolationist
But for all his dislike of regional blocs and global institutions, to accuse Trump of isolationism is naïve, as evidenced by his threats to pursue control over Greenland and the Panama Canal. He clearly views Mexico as a source of unwanted migration, drugs and Chinese goods, and plans to take steps to address those issues, while eyeing the Canal as part of a broader plan to increase Washington’s influence over territory and infrastructure close to the United States.
In Greenland, he seeks control of minerals and a strategic position for the US in the Arctic.
And even prior to his return to office, he helped secure a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.
So what does this mean for China, in particular the issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea? With Trump eyeing Greenland and the canal, the fear is that China and Russia (particularly, in the latter’s case, in relation to Georgia) will exploit any moves he makes as justification for pursuing their own interests.
Some international newspapers have even suggested that Trump’s second term won’t merely be more disruptive than his first, but will supplant a vision that has dominated US foreign policy since World War II.
Pushback against China?
America is an Indo-Pacific nation and still number one globally in terms of economic, military and political influence.
Here in Southeast Asia, countries are concerned about increasing great-power competition between China and the US in their region. Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo has expressed hope that the Trump administration will engage with Southeast Asia and dismissed as “speculation” claims that the incoming president has no interest in the region. How can Washington push back assertively against China, assuring allies that the US remains engaged in the region?
Bertil Lintner, journalist and Myanmar specialist, and author of dozens of books on the country and region—the most recent being 2024’s “The Golden Land Ablaze”—said, “I don’t think Southeast Asia is high on Trump’s list of priorities, if it figures at all. The only thing we know is that he is not very keen on human rights. It is possible that there will be much less American support for independent media and CSOs in, for instance, Burma.”
At a recent Senate confirmation hearing, Trump’s choice for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, was unable to name a single ASEAN country—not even the Philippines or Thailand, two countries with whom the US has defense alliances that commit it to offer military assistance in a conflict. That is disappointing, and if confirmed, he will be required to “do a little homework” as Senator Tammy Duckworth pointed out. Nonetheless, whoever is appointed to head the departments of Defense and State, governments around the region are ready to work with them.
One US expert on the region who seems confident that it will be business as usual under Trump, and that Washington will continue to work with Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines, and build those relationships, is Scot Marciel, who served separate stints as US ambassador to Myanmar, Indonesia and ASEAN.
Trump never appointed an ambassador to ASEAN, but Marciel held the position during the Obama administration. Speaking to The Irrawaddy, he was hopeful that Myanmar policy under Trump will not see a fundamental shift and will continue to support the cause of the Myanmar people.
If Marco Rubio is confirmed as secretary of state, Marciel expects the US senator from Florida will have an important say on policy and that, therefore, “I would think you would see more continuity with traditional US policy.”
“So, it will depend a little bit on who decides to really engage on those issues”—the White House or the State Department. Ultimately, however, he added, “the administration’s focus will certainly be on China.”
At the start of the first Trump administration, the Myanmar generals and their cronies welcomed news of his election, and junta boss Min Aung Hlaing and his criminals optimistically believe Trump’s return will make their lives easier. Along with China, Russia—for whose leader, Vladimir Putin, Trump has expressed admiration in the past—are allies of the hated Myanmar junta.
Over the past four years, the Biden administration has imposed sanctions on the regime’s leaders, cronies and arms smugglers, with regime opponents saying these actions do not go far enough; many would like to see the US back lethal assistance to the anti-regime resistance.
But Marciel warned that the criminals in Naypyitaw should not expect recognition from Trump.
“I think they would be wrong if they think that President Trump wakes up in the morning and thinks, ‘How can I help the generals in Naypyitaw?’ I am pretty sure that doesn’t happen. And I think the US interest in Myanmar has always been much greater than the views of a particular president. And it will not be on the side of the generals,” he said.
The former ASEAN ambassador said he still believes that the broader US political system will remain very supportive of the Myanmar people and their desire for democracy, human rights, justice and opportunity.
“And not for the chaos and corruption and criminality of the generals. So, again, I can’t say for sure what the Trump administration is going to do. But I think there may be prematurely celebrating in Naypyitaw,” he said.
(The Irrawaddy’s full interview with Scot Marciel will be published soon.)
