Relatively peaceful Ayeyarwady Region faces Arakan Army (AA) advances from adjacent Gwa Township in southern Rakhine State as wealthier residents plan a move to Yangon.
Myanmar’s junta is ramping up defenses in Ngathaingchaung and Yekyi townships in Ayeyarwady to dissuade the AA from crossing the border once Gwa falls.
Many Ayeyarwady residents joined resistance groups after the 2021 coup, with some receiving training with the AA.
Ayeyarwady residents have been fighting alongside the AA in the Ayeyarway People’s Defence Force (PDF) in Thandwe, home to the famous Ngapali beach, and at Ann’s Western Command headquarters.
Others volunteered to fight in Karen and Karenni (Kayah) states. Ayeyarwady residents account for a third of Doopalaya District troops in southeastern Karen State, where the Karen National Union Brigade 6 is based.
Other Ayeyarwady fighters in KNU Brigade 6 territory have joined the Cobra Column, Venom Column and the KNU’s armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army.
And they talk of returning to Ayeyarwady.
In 2022, Ayeyarwady residents reached the Ngawun River’s western bank in southern Rakhine State, establishing bases in the Arakan mountains and conducting anti-regime operations. Their impact was limited by the presence of junta forces in Gwa and Thandwe, which left their rear vulnerable, and their lack of weaponry.
The retreat of junta forces from Gwa and Thandwe will allow Ayeyarwady PDFs to establish bases in the Himalayan foothills along the Rakhine border.
Ayeyarwady PDF has an estimated arsenal of weapons and ammunition for over 1,000 fighters, while the AA has also provided weapons to previously unarmed resistance groups in Ayeyarwady.
The civilian National Unity Government added Ayeyarwady to its Military Region 2 with Ayeyarwady fighters who have served in Karen State and Bago Region. Nearly all of them are now armed.
The AA has captured Thandwe and Kyeintali towns and Gwa is expected to fall soon.
The armed group will want to secure southern Rakhine State by blocking junta access through Ayeyarwady, which is one reason why it has armed volunteers from the neighboring region.
The junta’s grip on Ayeyarwady is looking stretched. The Southwestern Command in the regional capital, Pathein, has had its troops redeployed to southern Rakhine and Bago Region.
And Ayeyarwady fighters might now become more active in the region. The seizure of roads to Monywa and Ye-U in Sagaing Region, which host the regime’s ordnance factories, would weaken the junta.
Pathein airport is also used to launch airstrikes.
The regime is bolstering its defenses in Ayeyarwady with the strengthening of Artillery Battalion 344 on the Ngathaingchaung-Gwa road. Fresh weapons have arrived and soldiers have been seen practicing rappelling from helicopters. A helipad has also been constructed. Another base at the Ngathaingchaung bridge has recently been established.
Pro-junta Pyu Saw Htee militias are scattered across the region with regime troops training many Ayeyarwady villages.
But the long Rakhine border is porous and the junta appears to lack the manpower to stop encroachment along the Irrawaddy’s western bank.
The junta’s depleted ranks might lead to a heavier conscription drive across Ayeyarwady, suggesting areas that have been relatively stable since the 2021 coup will now feel the shadow of war descending upon them.
