Reading the news of former President Thein Sein’s visit to China reminds one of the good old days (or should that be the “bad old days”?) in Myanmar.
Former general Thein Sein, 79, ruled Myanmar from 2011 to early 2016 as the ostensibly “reformist” president of a quasi-civilian government, which ceded power to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi following landmark elections in 2015.
This week finds him back in the headlines, having been invited to attend an event in Beijing commemorating the 70th anniversary of the Declaration of Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence—a set of principles laid out by China in the early days of communist rule, governing the country’s foreign relations. It is Thein Sein’s first foreign trip since the military seized power over three years ago, plunging the country into turmoil.
Notably, junta chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has not visited China since the 2021 coup, though Beijing has extended occasional invitations to a handful of key regime ministers over the past two years, including the home affairs minister. Myanmar’s opposition as well as activist groups have urged China, a major arms supplier, not to recognize the regime.
It is ironic that Thein Sein should be heading to China to commemorate the Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence just as fighting resumes in northern Shan State between regime forces and ethnic armies known to be close to China.
The resumption of Operation 1027, which was launched late last year by the Brotherhood Alliance of three ethnic armies, leaves in tatters a ceasefire brokered in January by China—which is itself believed to have greenlighted the ethnic military offensive in the first place as a way of targeting cyber scam syndicates inside Myanmar. The alliance claims the junta violated the ceasefire first, leading it to resume its offensive.
On the ground, Operation 1027 has dramatically changed the geopolitical dynamics of northern Myanmar, bringing significant territorial gains and strategic victories to the resistance forces.
Some pundits expect that, on the sidelines, Thein Sein and the Chinese will have more to discuss than what is on the official agenda, given the current fighting in northern Shan and nearby Mandalay Region. Speculation is rife that the regime’s leaders have asked the former president to urge China to mediate another cessation in the fighting. Therefore, this trip is considered a semi-official visit to China.
After decades of pariah status for Myanmar, Thein Sein’s administration won a degree of international legitimacy and support after launching political and economic reforms and allowing democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to contest the 2015 election. International media compared him to Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union.
Since leaving office, Thein Sein has largely distanced himself from his former colleagues and underlings, opting to enjoy his retirement at his mansion in the Myanmar capital Naypyitaw, where he lives alongside other ex-generals, including former dictator Than Shwe, in the so-called “Row of Six” neighborhood in Pobbathiri Township.
On Armed Forces Day in March 2023, the former president was among two dignitaries who gave “words of advice” to a select audience including coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and his wife, along with some of the junta boss’s subordinates. What he advised them on the day is unknown.
Pictures taken at the event show Min Aung Hlaing clasping his hands together and kneeling in front of U Thein Sein—a traditional Myanmar way of paying respect to one’s elders—before offering him gifts.
China has continued to engage with Myanmar’s former generals including Thein Sein and the old dictator, Than Shwe. High-ranking officials from Beijing often visit them at home, fueling speculation that China hopes the former leaders can help restore “stability” in the country.
China has also reportedly asked—in vain—to meet detained leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
In April, Chinese Ambassador to Myanmar Chen Hai visited Than Shwe, his former deputy Maung Aye, and Thein Sein in Naypyitaw, the Chinese Embassy said in a statement.
The embassy said on its Facebook page that Thein Sein and Chen discussed “the situation in Myanmar and cooperation between the two countries.”
In the same week, the regime moved Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest. The 79-year-old Nobel laureate is serving a 27-year sentence for a host of criminal convictions — widely viewed as politically motivated—ranging from corruption to breaching COVID-19 rules.
Meanwhile, last week, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel J. Kritenbrink met with Myanmar regime naval commander Commodore Kyaw Lin Zaw in Vietnam.
Inside sources said Min Aung Hlaing handpicked Kyaw Lin Zaw to travel to Vietnam.
The State Department neither denied nor confirmed the meeting, saying, “We continue to make clear to the military regime—including through limited private channels—that it must end its violence against the people of Burma, release those unjustly and arbitrarily detained, allow unhindered humanitarian access, and respect the will of the people for a return to the path of progress and an inclusive, representative democracy.”
Prior to the Hanoi meeting, several unpublicized meetings took place between a trusted aide of Min Aung Hlaing and US defense attaches in Yangon. These developments seem to suggest that the US has opened a line of communication with Min Aung Hlaing’s office.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that the US is trying a new approach to the Myanmar crisis. It remains to be seen what demands the US is making, or whether this is a realistic move. Meanwhile, the US continues to impose economic sanctions on the regime.
The previous military junta similarly sought a “secret dialogue” with US officials in the late 2000s, prior to the country’s opening up. The US at the time asked the military regime to free all political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and to hold an inclusive dialogue with all stakeholders.
Now, insurgents together with People’s Defense Force groups in Mandalay Region appear poised to take over several more townships in northern Shan State and will likely soon pose a military threat to the junta’s control of Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city. This time, the powerful ethnic armies close to China may not be so willing to listen to Beijing’s advice not to renew the war.
With the US apparently taking a different tack on Myanmar, and fighting resuming in northern Shan State, Thein Sein and his Chinese hosts have much to talk about in Beijing.
This article is supported by the Transition Promotion Programme, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic.
