Myanmar’s military regime faced significant humiliation when it lost the northern Shan State capital Lashio, along with its Northeastern Military Command headquarters, to the ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and allied resistance groups in early August.
It was the first capital and the first military regional command headquarters to be seized by anti-regime resistance forces, marking a major milestone in Myanmar’s fight against the regime since it grabbed power in a coup in early 2021.
In response to the losses, and unable to mount a ground operation to retake the city, the junta has conducted aerial bombardments of Lashio since late August.
Despite its invitation to ethnic armed groups and anti-junta resistance groups to lay down their arms and join its election, the junta continues its airstrikes on resistance-controlled areas including Lashio.
Last month in Lashio alone, the junta’s air force conducted around 13 aerial bombardments on civilian targets including schools, hotels, markets and residential wards of the city and some villages nearby, killing nearly 10 people and injuring dozens.
The repeated junta airstrikes have also disturbed the resistance forces’ rehabilitation efforts in the war-torn city.
So, what is the purpose of the junta’s aerial bombardments of the city?
Many military analysts, Lashio residents and MNDAA troops believe the reason is that the military junta fears the city will be rehabilitated under the ethnic army’s influence.
That is why the military regime has frequently bombed the city—to deter residents who fled during the battle for the capital from returning home to a city that is being reshaped by the ethnic rebel army the MNDAA.
Lashio resident Ko Gam Sai said in an interview with The Irrawaddy that residents initially thought the military would attack MNDAA targets, but in fact the junta airstrikes are targeting schools, markets and residential wards.
“The airstrikes are mainly intended to frighten the residents away from living in the city. The airstrikes on civilian targets are also intended to disrupt the rehabilitation and governance efforts in the liberated areas of ethnic revolutionary organizations [EROs] and the civilian National Unity Government [NUG],” he said.
For example, the military junta has razed almost the whole district-level town of Kawlin in Sagaing Region to the ground through arson attacks since it recaptured the town from the NUG’s People’s Defense Force (PDF) in February. Prior to that, it had repeatedly shelled Kawlin when it was under the control of the PDF.
When asked for his view on the repeated bombardments of Lashio, former Captain Zin Yaw, who defected from the army after the 2021 coup, said that in military terms, airstrikes cannot reclaim lost territory.
“The junta’s bombing campaign amounts to nothing more than destruction and the intentional killing of civilians,” he said.
For its part, the regime appears to be acting according to the belief that, “If we can’t get it back, we will destroy Lashio.”
Former Capt. Zin Yaw said, “The junta’s destructive act is also intended to turn the resistance-held city into a unhabitable no-man’s-land.”
Another military analyst who closely follows nationwide anti-regime resistance operations told The Irrawaddy that to retake Lashio, the military junta would have to send in at least 10,000 troops and heavy weaponry including tanks. To do so it would need to use the Nawnghkio-Kyaukme-Hsipaw-Lashio Road, the best and shortest route to reach to the city.
But at the moment it would be impossible for the regime to launch such an operation as it is suffering troop shortages amid nationwide resistance attacks. Also, it would first need to penetrate Nawnghkio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw townships under the control of the MNDAA’s ally the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and allied groups.
Far from conducting offensives in northern Shan, the junta military is currently struggling to defend its bases in Taunghkam Village in Nawnghkio Township. Taunghkam is a gateway position between northern and southern Shan State. The TNLA and its allies have seized the headquarters of at least three of the four artillery battalions near the village.
The MNDAA, TNLA and Arakan Army comprise the Brotherhood Alliance, which has captured almost all of northern Shan State, seizing around 25 towns including the capital Lashio during the successful Operation 1027 launched by the ethnic alliance and their allies in October last year.
Unable to retake the city, the military junta is instead repeatedly bombing the capital from the air.
Regarding the aerial bombardment of the city, another Lashio resident said, “The airstrikes are an inhumane and destructive act by the junta.”