Since the Arakan Army (AA) launched an offensive in Rakhine State in November last year, it has seized 10 Rakhine townships and Paletwa Township in southern Chin State. The AA is fighting in Maungdaw, Ann, Gwa and Taungup townships.
Maungdaw
The AA captured junta positions in the north and south of Maungdaw Township after November last year, blockading roads. After seizing Buthidaung, the AA attacked the remaining junta positions in Maungdaw on June 2, capturing seven Border Guard Police headquarters and smaller camps by August 19.
Myo Thu Gyi camp is the last junta-held battalion headquarters in Maungdaw with an estimated 1,000 personnel, including border police, No.15 Military Operations Command and Muslim conscripts.
The AA has captured Maungdaw town and surrounding villages, cutting off the camp by road and water on September 28. Regime airdrops resupply the camp.
The AA has reportedly breached some sections of the camp, despite repeated junta airstrikes. Regime helicopters cannot land to evacuate injured soldiers, leaving them to die in the military compound.
Myo Thu Gyi morale is reportedly low.
Ann
Ann is home to the military’s Western Command headquarters. The AA captured Taw Hein Taung operational command base, which guards Ann, on June 23. After a temporary halt, the AA resumed its offensive on September 26, resulting in daily clashes.
The group captured another key junta position, the Mae Taung operational command base, on October 5, before besieging Ann town.
Fourteen of the 18 battalions and units based in Ann town have fallen to the AA. Two signal battalions, an electrical engineering unit and the Western Command hold out. The regime has reportedly airlifted in at least six battalions in reinforcements.
The Western Command is under attack.
The regime has suffered heavy casualties in Ann, with 300 to 800 soldiers apparently captured by the AA with many other desertions.
The regime is still able to airlift in reinforcements and supplies but land routes are blocked. On November 7, the AA seized a junta checkpoint at the town entrance on the Minbu-Ann road, cutting off junta supplies from Minbu in Magwe Region.
On November 20, around 500 junta reinforcements from the 88th Light Infantry Division were ambushed by AA and its allies on the road, inflicting heavy casualties. Regime reinforcements continued to try to use the road this month, according to sources.
Gwa
After capturing Thandwe and Ngapali, the AA moved south, seizing the Maung Shwe Lay naval base on September 5. The AA then advanced on Gwa with the regime defending Kyeintali, Kalarpyin, Satthwar and Kantharyar on the Thandwe-Gwa road.
The regime also used naval and air force assets to defend Kyeintali town until it fell in early October.
Retreating junta troops blew up bridges along the road while the AA is advancing along the road and from the Arakan mountains.
Many junta reinforcements are forcibly recruited conscripts and many have fled.
AA troops are nearing Gwa, 2½ months after capturing Maung Shwe Lay with the town expected to come under siege in December.
Taungup
The battle for Taungup began on October 31 when the AA captured two junta positions in a week, including junta troops deployed at Taungup University.
Fighting between November 9 and 19 occurred as junta troops fortified government offices and schools in the town. The group seized around half the town, despite daily junta airstrikes.
On November 20, AA paused its offensive to allow around 60,000 trapped civilians to evacuate and junta junta troops left Taungup last Thursday to join No.5 Military Operations Command, Light Infantry Battalion 346 and 544 headquarters, which are under AA attack. The group now controls Taungup.
Analysis
- Maungdaw, Ann, Gwa and Taungup housed large battalions, including command bases and artillery units. The AA has been attacking them for months.
- The regime used thousands of troops in all the major battles, along with air, artillery and naval support.
- Extensive junta airstrikes could not prevent defeats. Many regime troops have been captured, killed or have fled.
- Taungup, Maungdaw and Ann have been cut off and now rely on airlifts for food and weapons.
Gwa is likely to be cut off soon. The regime mainly uses air power in major battles. In southern Gwa it can also effectively use naval power.
Conclusion
The regime may lose all four battles before the end of 2024, allowing the AA to seize the whole of Rakhine during 2025. The AA’s ability, strength and weaponry to simultaneously engage in four major battles and maintain relentless momentum since November 2023 remains impressive.
– Aye Chan Hsu is a military and political analyst
