Myanmar military leader Min Aung Hlaing recently met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in
Russia. Their first encounter since the Myanmar military seized power over four years ago brings gains for Min Aung Hlaing in his diplomatic and political theater, as well as in the civil war, while also underscoring the deepening coordination between Moscow and Beijing around Myanmar issues.
Xi received the junta boss on the sidelines of a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany on May 9 in Moscow. Xi reaffirmed China’s support for the regime in the regional and international arenas, and expressed support for the junta’s proposed poll.
Political analyst Thet Htar Maung remarked that Xi’s exclusive meeting with Min Aung Hlaing in the Kremlin represents a significant diplomatic victory for Myanmar’s generals. The fact that Xi received the junta boss and spoke nothing about the junta’s war crimes and daily air strikes targeting civilians in Myanmar further bolstered the junta’s assumption of impunity, he argued.
Shunned by Western democracies for its takeover in 2021 and subsequent atrocities against its own people, who oppose military rule in the country, the Myanmar junta has relied more and more on Beijing and Moscow diplomatically and militarily.
But as a powerful next-door neighbor with essential border trade and Belt and Road projects in Myanmar, and given its ties to some of the country’s major anti-junta ethnic armed groups, China turns out to be more crucial to the junta.
In its pursuit of stronger Chinese backing in troubled Myanmar, the junta has aligned itself with Beijing to an extent that it has even earned the name “Beijing’s puppet.”
Indicators of this growing dependence include Myanmar’s unprecedented recognition of the Chinese New Year as an official public holiday, enactment of the Public Security Services Law allowing Chinese security forces to protect Chinese business ventures in Myanmar, and the junta’s assurances that the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor project remains a priority despite ongoing national instability. Furthermore, the junta has actively supported China’s crackdown on online fraud, describing it as a national duty.
Jason Tower, an expert on Southeast Asian security issues, told The Irrawaddy that Xi’s decision to meet Min Aung Hlaing after four plus years of avoiding high level interaction with him demonstrates China’s growing support for an otherwise failing regime troubled by nationwide armed resistance against its rule.
He also pointed out that the meeting between Xi and Min Aung Hlaing in Russia demonstrates growing coordination between Moscow and Beijing around the Myanmar issue.
“While some analysts have argued that the deepening of Russia-Myanmar ties has angered Beijing, that Russia would provide a space and cover for this meeting indicates that they are aligned behind their support for the Myanmar military,” he explained.
After his visit to the Kremlin at the official invitation of Vladimir Putin just two months ago, the achievement of another long-sought diplomatic goal—a meeting with President Xi—is likely to have bolstered Min Aung Hlaing’s confidence and encouraged him to commit more war crimes while ignoring sanctions from Western countries.
Russia and China are major arms suppliers of the regime, enabling it to conduct daily airstrikes against civilians.
By aligning itself with these two global powers, the junta is strategically embedding itself within their geopolitical sphere, raising speculation that countries and international organizations affiliated with Beijing and Moscow may increase their engagement with it.
For instance, key players within BRICS—including China, Russia, India, Brazil and Middle Eastern nations—as well as member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization could strengthen their ties with the junta.
Over the past few years, Myanmar generals have praised the growing influence of BRICS, and expressed their desire join the bloc.
The junta’s decision to bow down to Beijing has paid off, as proven by developments over the past six months.
In November last year, China hosted Min Aung Hlaing in Kunming for the Mekong Summit, providing him with the opportunity to hold separate discussions with the prime ministers of Thailand, Cambodia and Laos, during which he defended his plans for upcoming elections. Previously, senior junta officials had been barred from Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summits as the regime failed to comply with the grouping’s five-point peace plan for Myanmar.
The visit marked his first official trip to China since seizing power. Then, he embarked on a series of visits—traveling to Russia and Belarus, attending the BIMSTEC summit in Thailand, meeting ASEAN’s special envoy in Bangkok, and finally meeting Xi in Moscow.
Analysts suggest that the regime may receive more political and military backing from China in the country’s civil war. They point to the recent developments in Lashio, where China’s intervention allowed the regime to reclaim control of the capital of northern Shan State from the Myanmar National Democracy Alliance Army without firing a single shot. Similarly, China is exerting pressure on the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to return towns along the China-Myanmar border trade route including Kyaukme, Hsipaw and Nawnghkio to the regime.
Tower said Beijing’s growing interference in Myanmar’s domestic affairs has helped Min Aung Hlaing recover slightly from a series of embarrassing defeats on the battlefield.
“Despite Beijing’s help though, the military regime has continued to experience further setbacks on the battlefield, demonstrating how it continues to become more dependent on Beijing for its survival,” he added.
