Most of the residents of Nawnghkio have fled the town as regime military columns have advanced to within 10 kilometers, triggering sporadic clashes with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Nawnghkio Town is strategically located on the main Mandalay-Lashio-Muse trade route linking Myanmar and China and is a gateway connecting the Mandalay region as well as southern Shan State to northern Shan State — areas largely under the control of the Brotherhood Alliance since its launch of Operation 1027 in October 2023. The TNLA is a member of the Alliance along with two other powerful ethnic armies.
During Phase 2 of the offensive, which started in June 2024, the TNLA and allied resistance groups swiftly seized five towns including Nawnghkio Town and its rural outskirts bordering southern Shan State as well as Pyin Oo Lwin, a major garrison town in Mandalay Region.
The TNLA and the allied Mandalay People’s Defense Force, the armed wing of the civilian National Unity Government (NUG), managed to seize several regime bases in Madaya Township, next to the country’s second biggest city, Mandalay, where the regime’s Central Military Command Headquarters is located.
At that time, many observers speculated that the TNLA and the allied anti-regime resistance groups would also quickly seize Mandalay.
However, the TNLA, along with fellow Brotherhood Alliance member the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), have been forced to slow their operations after coming under intense pressure from the Chinese government, which closed all border gates to the territory of the two ethnic armed organizations in northern Shan State.
In April this year, the MNDAA, which is a predominantly ethnic Kokang armed group, was pressured by the Chinese government to return Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State, which it had seized with support from several other resistance groups including PDFs, to the regime as part of a China-brokered ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the TNLA has also come under pressure from Beijing to halt its offensive against the regime. At the China-brokered peace talks in Kunming, Yunnan Province, in late April, the regime pressured the TNLA to return towns that it had liberated with the help of resistance allies to the regime.
At about the same time, despite declaring an earthquake truce until the end of June, the regime stepped up its offensive to retake control of Nawnghkio Township, recapturing TNLA frontline bases and approaching Nawnghkio Town.
Regime columns now appeare to be steadily advancing toward Nawnghkio Town, encountering little resistance from the TNLA and its allies.
This situation has raised critical questions: Why is the powerful TNLA—which managed to quickly capture five townships in a short span—struggling to stop regime troops from nearing Nawnghkio Town?
Is the TNLA, under Chinese pressure, conceding Nawnghkio Town to the regime—the town it once liberated?
Meanwhile, media reports, citing residents and sources close to PDF groups, indicate that the TNLA has instructed allied PDF forces to retreat from villages they previously controlled in Nawnghkio Township.
Local residents have expressed concern that the TNLA may be preparing to hand Nawnghkio back to the regime.
When questioned by media about the retreat during a June 5 press conference, TNLA spokesperson Lway Yay Oo declined to comment, saying it was an issue of military strategy.
Instead, she said, “We are planning for the safety of Nawnghkio Town as much as we can. We are not worried about the military situation.”
The TNLA said it engaged in clashes with regime forces near Kangyi Village, about 10 km to the south of Nawnghkio town on June 9. Kangyi village is located on the Lawksawk-Kyaukku-Nawnghkio Road.
Military analysists said that the TNLA is now conducting strong defensive operations at Kangyi Village to prevent junta troops from approaching Nawnghkio Town.
The TNLA and resistance troops also reportedly pursued and attacked regime forces fleeing back to nearby Shwe Mote Htaw Village in the recent fighting.
A military analysist who closely follows the fighting in the north told the Irrawaddy that if the TNLA managed to beat back the regime offensive at Kangyi Village, there was no need to worry for the safety of Nawnghkio Town.
Former army caption Zin Yaw, who defected from the military after the 2021 coup, said that the TNLA appeared to be losing ground in Nawnghkio Township as it had remained on the defensive, in adherence with the earthquake truce, which the Brotherhood Alliance declared until the end of June.
“In military strategy, the side that goes on the offensive usually gains the upper hand in the long run. The TNLA’s ceasefire has likely allowed the regime troops to advance near Nawnghkio Town,” he added.
However, it now appears that the TNLA and its allies have resumed a defensive strategy with offensive characteristics to protect the town, Zin Yaw said.
Nawnghkio is vital for both the junta and the TNLA as it serves as a key gateway to southern Shan State and is crucial for military operations in northern Shan State.
“Given the current situation, if the TNLA continues to uphold its quake ceasefire, it will lose control of Nawnghkio to the regime,” Zin Yaw said.
