A Chinese ceasefire monitoring team recently arrived in Lashio to oversee the handover of the northern Shan State capital to the Myanmar military after Beijing pressured the ethnic Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the Kokang Group, to withdraw from the city.
Analysts have described this as one of the most blatant ever examples of Chinese interference in Myanmar’s domestic affairs. China has essentially helped the Myanmar army achieve an outcome it could never have achieved on the battlefield, they said.
As the MNDAA troops withdrew and the junta’s troops moved back into Lashio on Monday, local residents were left confused about who truly governs their city. Despite the disorder, one figure loomed large: Deng Xijun, China’s special envoy to Myanmar and leader of the ceasefire monitoring team, who appeared to be directing the actions of both parties. Deng personally supervised the handover of Lashio to the junta and even toured key areas of the city, including the airport, following his meeting with representatives of the junta and the MNDAA.
The junta’s inability to reclaim Lashio by force led it to rely on China’s leverage over the MNDAA to secure the city, reinforcing China’s role as a key power broker in Myanmar’s internal conflicts. China forced the MNDAA to relinquish Lashio to the junta over the course of several rounds of meetings in Kunming, during which it detained the group’s leader, Peng Deren, sources familiar with the matter said.
Despite the latest developments in Lashio, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, insisted on Monday that China does not interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
On Tuesday, hundreds of heavily armed junta military convoys vehicles entered Lashio. However, many residents feel that true power in the city lies with the small Chinese ceasefire monitoring vehicles patrolling the streets.
Myanmar national flags replaced MNDAA flags at Lashio City Hall, and small Chinese flags on the ceasefire monitoring vehicles sent a clear message about who holds real authority in the city.
This situation has sparked frustration and unease not only among Lashio residents but also across Myanmar, including among supporters of the junta. After nearly nine months under the MNDAA’s control, Lashio has now been reoccupied by the regime thanks to China’s intervention. China’s ceasefire monitoring team reportedly left Lashio on Tuesday, leaving behind a city rife with tension and uncertainty.
Guo told reporters the MNDAA is set to relinquish the city to the military without firing a shot, adding that Beijing dispatched the ceasefire monitoring team to Lashio at the joint invitation of both sides to “oversee the ceasefire between the Myanmar military and the MNDAA and to witness the smooth and orderly handover of Lashio’s urban area.”
Jason Tower, an expert on Southeast Asian security issues, told The Irrawaddy that China has delivered to the Myanmar military an outcome it did not have the capacity to achieve through force of arms.
Neither the MNDAA nor the junta has made an official statement about the events unfolding in Lashio. But the fact that a Chinese official is directly handling a key development in Myanmar’s internal affairs is widely viewed as highly disrespectful to the entire population of Myanmar, and has ruffled many feathers.
One senior member of the Association for the Protection of Race and Religion (Ma Ba Tha) stated: “This kind of situation never happened under [former military dictators] General Ne Win or U Than Shwe. Just look at how incapable Min Aung Hlaing is. It is a breach of Myanmar’s sovereignty.”
Tower described it as one of the most blatant examples of Chinese interference in the domestic affairs of another country seen to date.
“This is the first time for China to unilaterally deploy a large number of ceasefire monitors overseas, and will represent a test of its increased involvement in security issues beyond its borders.”
While China has intervened in Myanmar’s affairs before—such as by backing the Communist Party of Burma and supplying ethnic armed organizations like the United Wa State Army—it has not done so in such a public way. Under the current regime, China has become arrogant in its foreign policy towards its neighbor, a country battered by a civil war between a diplomatically isolated regime and ethnic armed organizations that are heavily reliant on Beijing for their survival and prosperity.
After his visit to Myanmar in August last year, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that no party should interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
China’s two-pronged approach to Myanmar has allowed it to capitalize on the country’s political instability. For the junta, China’s support is indispensable, as it relies on Beijing for backing to halt anti-regime offensives in northern Shan State and gain international legitimacy. In return, the junta has endorsed Beijing’s “One China” policy, and enacted the Private Security Service Law to safeguard Chinese investments by enabling Chinese security firms to enter and operate in Myanmar.
During the reign of Than Shwe, Myanmar relied heavily on China for political, economic and military assistance, due to Western sanctions. But current junta boss Min Aung Hlaing has opened a new chapter in the relationship, allowing China to interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs much more overtly, said an observer inside Myanmar.
Even as Lashio is returned to the junta’s control, the regime is likely to be constrained by China in managing the city. This has fueled speculation that China may pressure other ethnic armed groups, such as the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), to withdraw from towns along key border trade routes, as Beijing is seeking to reopen the Muse-Mandalay Road in order to resume border trade halted by the fighting.
Tower said China’s interference in Lashio’s handover establishes a concerning precedent that could see China bully other armed groups into relinquishing territory to an extremely oppressive, corrupt and illegitimate regime.
“It is likely that China will pivot its focus to the TNLA next, and that it may use a similar playbook,” he said.
“The bottom line is that China’s influence in Myanmar continues to rise,” Tower said, “particularly in the security space as it seeks to establish dominance in the country so that it can consolidate its geostrategic energy and trade corridors linking its southwestern provinces to the Indian Ocean.”
