In an unprecedented defeat, Myanmar’s military lost a regional command in August last year when Lashio and the Northeastern Command fell to the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA).
The fall of Lashio, where around 20 battalion headquarters were protected by four military operations commands, shattered junta morale and crushed any claims of invincibility.
The battle showed the military could collapse and might go down as a historic moment in Myanmar’s revolution.
In late 2024, reports emerged that the Chinese authorities had arrested MNDAA leader Peng Daxun, leading to speculation that the group might have to withdraw from Lashio. Throughout last month, rumors persisted about an MNDAA retreat.
In mid-January, following negotiations in Kunming, a ceasefire agreement was reached between the regime and MNDAA under Chinese mediation, with reports that the group would withdraw from Lashio in June. Neither side has confirmed these rumors.
In late January, during Chinese New Year celebrations in Kokang, a video emerged on social media in Kokang featuring a supposedly Chinese official speaking alongside a Kokang representative on a Spring Festival stage.
The celebrations were not in Lashio. From his accent, the Chinese official appears to be Kokang-Chinese from Lincang across the border, suggesting the stage was somewhere like Tarmoenye.
The speaker, who appeared to be a low-level Chinese official, said Kokang Special Region 1 agreed on January 17 to withdraw from Lashio in return for junta recognition of the MNDAA’s autonomy over the special region, including Laukkai, Kokang, Kutkai, Hseni and Kunlong districts and Laukkai town.
Since then reports of an MNDAA retreat from Lashio spread on social media.
In his Chinese New Year’s message on January 28, Peng Daxun did not mention the group’s objective to end the military dictatorship in Myanmar.
He said the MNDAA would uphold China’s policy of “encouraging peace and promoting dialogue” in Myanmar. He said the MNDAA would strive for regional development through China’s Belt and Road Initiative and develop “sustainable industries”.
The MNDAA has not denied a retreat from Lashio.
Some observers said a Lashio retreat in exchange for official recognition of MNDAA’s autonomy over the special region was just a Chinese proposal that the regime has not yet accepted.
The military is reportedly unwilling to accept the proposal unless Kokang troops withdraw from all the towns and Lashio to the former Kokang self-administered region east of the Salween River.
The regime reportedly wants a wider MNDAA withdrawal to prevent towns around Lashio from remaining in rebel hands. There is also an apparent unwillingness to recognize other northern Shan towns as part of the Kokang special region.
Nawnghkio, Kyaukme, Hsipaw and Kutkai are held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the MNDAA occupies Hseni, Kunlong and Chin Shwe Haw.
Even if Lashio is regained, the Northeastern Command cannot be reestablished in a city surrounded by rebels. The regime opened a temporary Northeastern Command in Mongyai after the fall of Lashio and is reportedly planning to establish a permanent base in Mankat near Tangyan.
While China is eager to reopen the border and wants the regime and rebels to share tax revenues, the regime does not want to allow its enemies to secure a source of income.
In 2024, the regime implemented strict measures and seized goods passing through border areas controlled by revolutionary forces.
On January 30, the MNDAA’s mouthpiece mentioned “four districts and one town in the special region” and the “Lashio military administrative committee”. A separate Lashio committee instead of incorporating the city into the special region is understood to be the MNDAA response to China’s proposal.
During any conflict, negotiations, ceasefires and territorial exchanges are not unusual, but rebels in Myanmar rarely peacefully relinquish captured land.
Moreover, Lashio was not captured solely by the MNDAA as the TNLA and Arakan Army (AA) also contributed to the victory.
Alongside the MNDAA, various People’s Defense Forces from central regions, the People’s Liberation Army, Bamar People’s Liberation Army and Karenni Nationalities Defense Force also fought in northern Shan State, including at Lashio.
Lashio marked a historic victory written with the blood of revolutionary forces against the military dictatorship. It would be a great shame to return Lashio to the bloodthirsty regime and a setback for revolutionary momentum.
Residents who collaborated with the MNDAA could face persecution and feel their sacrifices were for nothing.
Myanmar’s people fight the military with its air force, navy, artillery and tanks not just to establish a western-style democracy.
The country has been unstable since the first coup in 1962. Under military rule, conflicts have increased and the number of resistance groups has grown.
Myanmar’s people primarily want a peaceful and prosperous country as they have suffered grinding poverty for decades while the generals pursue personal gain.
If Beijing, focusing on its economic interests, forces the return of Lashio, it will damage the people’s pursuit of peace and prosperity.
China wants to maintain relations with the junta, protect investments in Myanmar and continue to sell the regime arms under previous agreements.
However, forcing the return of the northern Shan State capital would be an unjustifiable infringement on Myanmar’s internal affairs, compelling the MNDAA to betray its allies.
During its 2015 rebellion, Kokang forces faced opposition from the rest of Myanmar while Operation 1027 received nationwide support.
Any return would damage the public support that enabled the MNDAA to seize the strategically important city.
Coercing the MNDAA to return Lashio will not bring peace to northern Shan State and will only serve junta interests.
Wai Min Tun is a political analyst.
