Armed resistance to junta rule emerged in Bago Region – a vast of stretch of central Myanmar sitting between Yangon and the administrative capital, Naypyitaw – about a year after the 2021 military coup.
People’s Defense Force (PDF) battalions have been formed across four districts: Taungoo and Bago in the east, and Pyay and Tharrawaddy in the west.
The Taungoo and Bago-district PDFs operate east of the Sittaung River, in territory controlled by the Karen National Union (KNU). They are active in Shwegyin, Kyaukkyi and Mone townships, and along the old Yangon-Mandalay road through Taungoo, Pyu, Nyaunglebin, and Paenwekone.
Bago’s western front
The Pyay and Tharrawaddy PDFs operate in the west alongside local People’s Defense Forces (LPDFs).
Bago Region has seen fewer large-scale battles than ethnic states, with local resistance groups deploying guerilla tactics and targeting smaller units of a few dozen troops.
The military has responded by burning villages in Pyay and Tharrawaddy districts but has failed to impose its four-cuts strategy, designed to cut rebels’ access to funding, food, intelligence, and recruits.
Overstretched by fighting nationwide, the junta can only send single columns to clear areas where resistance is reported. These troops often face ambush and landmine attacks, resulting in heavy casualties. Over the past three years, frequent clashes have erupted across all four districts.
Resistance on Bago Region’s western front was strengthened last year with the formation of PDF Battalion 3803 in Tharrawaddy District. Meanwhile, Pyay District’s PDF, numbering around 100 members, has been fighting alongside the Arakan Army (AA) in battles stretching west across the Rakhine Mountains from Padaung to Taungup.
Eastern front and 2025 resistance advance
In early 2024, the civilian National Unity Government’s Southern Command, which controls the Bago PDFs, announced it had seized junta bases on the eastern front in Shwegyin, Kyaukkyi, and Mone townships, and was advancing west across the Sittaung River.
On February 15 this year, Bago PDFs joined forces with Karen National Union Brigade 3 for simultaneous attacks on seven military outposts just west of the river and nearby Nyaunglebin and Paenewkone.
The operation marked a major escalation as resistance forces advanced to seize Bago territory from the junta.
The junta’s Southern Command, responsible for operations in Bago Region, has primarily focused on the Karen front to the east. It previously considered Pyay and Padaung in the west, home to its KaPaSa ordnance factories, as relatively safe.
However, Padaung – along with Yekyi and Ngathaingchaung in neighboring Ayeyarwady Region, overseen by Southwestern Command – are facing growing threats from AA and allied forces. Under attack on two fronts, the military is struggling to maintain control of its military-industrial heartland.
Ayeyarwaddy Region has been relatively stable since the coup, but the regime is now feeling the heat with clashes taking place in Ngathaingchaung and Yekyi near the Rakhine border.
PDF battalions formed with fighters from Ayeyarwady and Yangon regions, trained in Karen State, are now advancing into Bago Region.
Two PDF battalions and local People’s Defense Team units formed with fighters from Yangon are now active in the Sittaung River basin. If these Yangon PDF battalions can enter the Bago Yoma (mountains), they will be able to team up with the Tharrawaddy PDF to launch assaults in Taikkyi and Hmawbi on the outskirts of Yangon.
Meanwhile, the two Ayeyarwady PDFs are involved in resistance attacks in other parts of the country but may be able to cross the Irrawaddy River back to their region via Tharrawaddy District.
Overstretched and lacking public support, the regime is struggling to secure two 100km stretches either side of the Irrawaddy River, between Hinthada and Kyangin in Ayeyarwady Region and Tharrawaddy and Natalin in Bago Region.
Nightmare scenario for regime
PDF advances along the Sittaung River on the eastern (Karen) front, coupled with the AA-led offensive in the west, including Ayeyarwady Region, suggest that Bago city is now in the resistance’s crosshairs.
The regime may be bracing for PDF battalions under NUG Southern Command to march on the regional capital. However, it is too overstretched to prevent them from doing so.
A nightmare scenario for the junta would be a coordinated offensive by Yangon PDFs in Taikkyi and Hmawbi, PDFs in northern Bago’s Taundwinggyi and Natmauk, and the AA and allies in Pyay and Padaung in western Bago and Ayeyarwady.
Already facing threats on eastern and western fronts, a major offensive in the heartland of the country could overwhelm the regime’s military resources.
The regime is currently using Yangon-based battalions to reinforce its troops in Nawnghkio and Ayeyarwady, making it difficult to strengthen its forces in Bago if another front opens there. Its only option is to reinforce the 66th and 77th Light Infantry Divisions, overseen by the Southern Command, with conscripts.
With PDF and KNU forces gaining control over the Sittaung plain east of Bago, and the AA and allies consolidating control over the Rakhine Mountains west of Bago, military operations are expected to intensify in 2025. This will pave way for anti-regime operations in Yangon, boosting urban guerilla activities in the commercial capital and further south.
The military will be further stretched as the new front opens. Seriously weakened, it will have no choice but to rely on inexperienced new recruits.
Aye Chan Hsu is a political and military analyst.
