Ayeyarwady Region spans 13,570 sq. km and, according to the 2014 census, had a total population of over 6.1 million, making it the second most populous of Myanmar’s 14 regions and states.
It remains the country’s rice bowl and is vital to its economy.
As elsewhere in the country, the people of Ayeyarwady responded to the military’s 2021 coup with mass street protests. But while armed resistance erupted in many parts of the country, the region remained largely passive, prompting the question whether it was the most pro-junta part of Myanmar.
Until the end of 2024, there were far fewer anti-regime activities in Ayeyarwady than for example in Yangon, which saw continuous guerilla attacks. Ayeyarwady remained essentially a military stronghold.
Anti-regime efforts face many challenges in a region that is home to the junta’s Southwestern Command with 11 battalions, and two battalions of the 66th Light Infantry Division. Pamawaddy Navy Command on Haiggyi Island and the No. 4 Strategic Fleet are also based in Ayeyarwady.
The region’s geography with its countless rivers and creeks also makes it easy for the regime to impose blockades.
But it is equally true that portions of the populace are military sympathizers, which makes it necessary for anti-regime groups to exercise extra caution.
In the 2015 and 2020 elections, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a majority in Ayeyarwady, but unlike in other regions it did not win by a landslide in every township, and the military’s proxy Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) still secured a substantial number of votes.
Resistance groups planning to take up arms against the regime therefore first went westward to the Rakhine Yoma (Arakan Mountains) for military training with the ethnic Arakan Army (AA) in Rakhine State, or eastward to Karen National Union (KNU) territories on the eastern bank of the Sittoung River, where they trained and armed themselves.
But now they are finally returning to Ayeyarwady.
Military operations in 2025
It was not until late 2024 that the Ayeyarwady front came to life with the AA’s battle for the control of Gwa Township on the Rakhine border. After the fall of Gwa, People’s Defense Force (PDFs) and Spring Revolution groups began their advance into Ayeyarwady in early 2025.
Together with the AA, they have since captured two coastal villages south of Gwa town, where they now threaten Shwe Thaung Yan Beach and popular beach destinations like Chaungtha and Ngwe Saung beyond. The regime has fortified Shwe Thaung Yan to prevent a further advance.
Another offensive has emerged along the Gwa-Ngathaingchaung road. After seizing two junta positions, the AA and PDFs are now advancing on No. 344 Artillery Battalion east of Ngathaingchaung town. Last month they seized a junta post in Thabaung Township, while clashes continue in rural areas of the township. Fighting has also been reported in Yegyi Township this month.
The AA and allied forces are now launching offensives in Thabaung, Yekyi, Lemyethna townships and Ngathaingchaung sub-township, forcing the regime to bolster defenses across multiple locations. Clashes are likely to spill over into Kangyidaunt, Ngapudaw, Myanaung, Kyangin, and Ingapu townships.
Meanwhile, PDF battalions formed by Ayeyarwady residents who underwent training and fought in Karen State are reportedly trying to cross the Sittoung River into Ayeyarwady along with PDF battalions commanded by the Southern Command of the civilian National Unity Government.
The return of the natives
Ayeyarwady PDF and Spring Revolution groups persevered through four years of hardships and are finally returning to their homeland.
For too long the military considered Ayeyarwady Region a safe rear base. No longer. Now, revolutionary forces are transforming it into a frontline battlefield for democracy and self-determination.
Moe Sett Nyein Chan is a military analyst
